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    Some heuristics about elliptic curves

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    We give some heuristics for counting elliptic curves with certain properties. In particular, we re-derive the Brumer-McGuinness heuristic for the number of curves with positive/negative discriminant up to XX, which is an application of lattice-point counting. We then introduce heuristics (with refinements from random matrix theory) that allow us to predict how often we expect an elliptic curve EE with even parity to have L(E,1)=0L(E,1)=0. We find that we expect there to be about c1X19/24(logX)3/8c_1X^{19/24}(\log X)^{3/8} curves with Δ<X|\Delta|<X with even parity and positive (analytic) rank; since Brumer and McGuinness predict cX5/6cX^{5/6} total curves, this implies that asymptotically almost all even parity curves have rank 0. We then derive similar estimates for ordering by conductor, and conclude by giving various data regarding our heuristics and related questions

    Paid Sick Days and Restaurant Jobs: The Evidence from San Francisco

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    In February 2007, San Francisco implemented the nation's first paid sick days law, allowing all workers within the city to earn a minimum amount of paid sick leave. Restaurants are among the employers least likely to provide sick leave benefits, absent such a requirement. Therefore, if minimum paid leave standards affect the number of jobs available, we would expect to see that impact most clearly in the food service industry.The data show that the job market in restaurants and bars has been stronger in San Francisco than in the state of California as a whole in every year since the sick days law passed

    Scaling in the space climatology of the auroral indices: Is SOC the only possible explanation ?

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    The study of the robust features of the magnetosphere is motivated both by new "whole system" approaches, and by the idea of "space climate" as opposed to "space weather". We enumerate these features for the AE index, and discuss whether self-organised criticality (SOC) is the most natural explanation of the "stylised facts" so far known for AE. We identify and discuss some open questions, answers to which will clarify the extent to which AE's properties provide evidence for SOC. We then suggest an SOC-like reconnection-based scenario drawing on the result of Craig(2001) as an explanation of the very recent demonstration by Uritsky et al(2001b) of power laws in several properties of spatiotemporal features seen in auroral images.Comment: 24 pages including 7 figures. Based on an invited talk given at the IAGA meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam, August 2000. Retitled v2 has revisions, clearer statement of intent of paper i.e. part review/part critique/some new suggestions, and 1 new figure. In press, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysic

    Washington's Working Women

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    The lingering impacts of recession highlight the central importance of women's work to family economic survival - but also the gulf that still separates women's earnings from men's, and the need for new policies that promote healthy workplaces and healthy families

    Personalised Classroom Learning

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    Rank distribution in a family of cubic twists

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    In 1987, Zagier and Kramarz published a paper in which they presented evidence that a positive proportion of the even-signed cubic twists of the elliptic curve x3+y3=1x^3+y^3=1 should have positive rank. We extend their data, showing that it is more likely that the proportion goes to zero

    Some remarks on Heegner point computations

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    We explain how to find a rational point on a rational elliptic curve of rank 1 using Heegner points. We give some examples, and list new algorithms that are due to Cremona and Delaunay. These are notes from a short course given at the Institut Henri Poincare in December 2004
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