Conformance checking and performance improvement in scheduled processes: A queueing-network perspective

Service processes, for example in transportation, telecommunications or the health sector, are the backbone of today's economies. Conceptual models of service processes enable operational analysis that supports, e.g., resource provisioning or delay prediction. In the presence of event logs containing recorded traces of process execution, such operational models can be mined automatically.In this work, we target the analysis of resource-driven, scheduled processes based on event logs. We focus on processes for which there exists a pre-defined assignment of activity instances to resources that execute activities. Specifically, we approach the questions of conformance checking (how to assess the conformance of the schedule and the actual process execution) and performance improvement (how to improve the operational process performance). The first question is addressed based on a queueing network for both the schedule and the actual process execution. Based on these models, we detect operational deviations and then apply statistical inference and similarity measures to validate the scheduling assumptions, thereby identifying root-causes for these deviations. These results are the starting point for our technique to improve the operational performance. It suggests adaptations of the scheduling policy of the service process to decrease the tardiness (non-punctuality) and lower the flow time. We demonstrate the value of our approach based on a real-world dataset comprising clinical pathways of an outpatient clinic that have been recorded by a real-time location system (RTLS). Our results indicate that the presented technique enables localization of operational bottlenecks along with their root-causes, while our improvement technique yields a decrease in median tardiness and flow time by more than 20%

Predictive Process Monitoring Methods: Which One Suits Me Best?

Predictive process monitoring has recently gained traction in academia and is maturing also in companies. However, with the growing body of research, it might be daunting for companies to navigate in this domain in order to find, provided certain data, what can be predicted and what methods to use. The main objective of this paper is developing a value-driven framework for classifying existing work on predictive process monitoring. This objective is achieved by systematically identifying, categorizing, and analyzing existing approaches for predictive process monitoring. The review is then used to develop a value-driven framework that can support organizations to navigate in the predictive process monitoring field and help them to find value and exploit the opportunities enabled by these analysis techniques

XNAP: Making LSTM-based Next Activity Predictions Explainable by Using LRP

Predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) is a class of techniques designed to predict behaviour, such as next activities, in running traces. PBPM techniques aim to improve process performance by providing predictions to process analysts, supporting them in their decision making. However, the PBPM techniques` limited predictive quality was considered as the essential obstacle for establishing such techniques in practice. With the use of deep neural networks (DNNs), the techniques` predictive quality could be improved for tasks like the next activity prediction. While DNNs achieve a promising predictive quality, they still lack comprehensibility due to their hierarchical approach of learning representations. Nevertheless, process analysts need to comprehend the cause of a prediction to identify intervention mechanisms that might affect the decision making to secure process performance. In this paper, we propose XNAP, the first explainable, DNN-based PBPM technique for the next activity prediction. XNAP integrates a layer-wise relevance propagation method from the field of explainable artificial intelligence to make predictions of a long short-term memory DNN explainable by providing relevance values for activities. We show the benefit of our approach through two real-life event logs

Fish as Reservoirs and Vectors of Vibrio cholerae

Vibrio cholerae, the etiologic agent of cholera, is autochthonous to various aquatic environments, but despite intensive efforts its ecology remains an enigma. Recently, it was suggested that copepods and chironomids, both considered as natural reservoirs of V. cholerae, are dispersed by migratory waterbirds, thus possibly distributing the bacteria between water bodies within and between continents. Although fish have been implicated in the scientific literature with cholera cases, as far as we know, no study actually surveyed the presence of the bacteria in the fish. Here we show for the first time that fish of various species and habitats contain V. cholerae in their digestive tract. Fish (n = 110) were randomly sampled from freshwater and marine habitats in Israel. Ten different fish species sampled from freshwater habitats (lake, rivers and fish ponds), and one marine species, were found to carry V. cholerae. The fish intestine of Sarotherodon galilaeus harboured ca. 5×103 V. cholerae cfu per 1 gr intestine content—high rates compared with known V. cholerae cfu numbers in the bacteria's natural reservoirs. Our results, combined with evidence from the literature, suggest that fish are reservoirs of V. cholerae. As fish carrying the bacteria swim from one location to another (some fish species move from rivers to lakes or sea and vice versa), they serve as vectors on a small scale. Nevertheless, fish are consumed by waterbirds, which disseminate the bacteria on a global scale. Moreover, V. cholerae isolates had the ability to degrade chitin, indicating a commensal relationship between V. cholerae and fish. Better understanding of V. cholerae ecology can help reduce the times that human beings come into contact with this pathogen and thus minimize the health risk this poses

First Results from The GlueX Experiment

The GlueX experiment at Jefferson Lab ran with its first commissioning beam in late 2014 and the spring of 2015. Data were collected on both plastic and liquid hydrogen targets, and much of the detector has been commissioned. All of the detector systems are now performing at or near design specifications and events are being fully reconstructed, including exclusive production of $\pi^{0}$, $\eta$ and $\omega$ mesons. Linearly-polarized photons were successfully produced through coherent bremsstrahlung and polarization transfer to the $\rho$ has been observed.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, Invited contribution to the Hadron 2015 Conference, Newport News VA, September 201

Analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of large earthquakes

The investigation on the spatio-temporal distribution of large earthquakes is still a controversial issue in geophysics and many works in scientific literature have been devoted to this topic. The importance of understanding the statistical distribution of large events is aimed not only to extract information on the physics of the earthquakes occurrence process, but also to make reliable earthquake forecasting. As far as theoretical aspects are concerned, a satisfactory modelling may allow, at least in principle, to test a variety of hypotheses, such as the presence of any regularity in time, and the in uence of di erent tectonic/physical factors that regulate the spatial occurrence of earthquakes. At the same time, a reliable earthquake forecasting has undoubtedly a huge social impact because it may mitigate the seismic risk

Фенотипическая пластичность метастатической меланомы

Introduction. Metastatic melanoma is characterized by clinical and morphological heterogeneity and plasticity. Rare cases of metastatic melanoma are known, that have no visual expression of melanocytic markers. Contradictory histology of such melanomas requires a differential diagnosis from morphologically similar non- melanocytic tumors, sarcoma or lymphoma. objective is to describe the extraordinary cases of metastatic melanomas with low expression of differentiation markers. material and methods. 15 melanoma cases with unusual clinical and morphological characteristics were included in the study. These tumors were examined by pathologist and cytologist, by immunohistochemical and FISH analyses, mutations in BRAF, NRAS and KIT genes were detected by PCR. results. Some primary tumors were amelanotic, therefore, they were difficult for differential tumor diagnosis. Most frequently, primary tumors were located on the back, shin or head. In 4 patients the primary focuses were not detected. Metastatic lesions were as large nodular tumors in soft tissues of the back or lower limb. Most tumors belong to mixed or spindle-cell histological types. Spindle-shaped cells were also revealed by cytological analysis. BRAF gene mutations were identified by genetic analysis in 27 % of tumors, NRAS and KIT gene mutations were not detected. In 4 cases FISH analysis was performed to detect EWSR1 gene rearrangements, but it did not confirm the diagnosis of sarcoma. conclusion. The results indicate the presence of a heterogeneous group of melanoma cases, which have a number of morphological and molecular features that bring them closer to sarcomas.Актуальность. Метастатическая меланома отличается клинико-морфологической гетерогенностью и пластичностью. Встречаются редкие случаи метастатической меланомы, которые практически не экспрессируют меланоцитарных маркеров. Гиcтологически такие меланомы требуют дифференциальной диагностики от морфологически сходных немеланоцитарных опухолей, саркомы или лимфомы. Цель исследования – исследование неординарных случаев метастатической меланомы с низкой экспрессией дифференцировочных маркеров. материал и методы. Описаны 15 случаев меланомы с необычными клинико-морфологическими характеристиками. Опухоли подверглись морфологическому, цитологическому исследованию, иммуногистохимическому и FISH-анализу, были определены мутации в генах BRAF, NRAS и KIT. Результаты. Первичные меланомы часто не содержали пигмента, что затрудняло дифференциальную диагностику опухоли. Опухоли располагались чаще всего на спине, голени или голове, у 4 пациентов первичные очаги не выявлены. Метастатические поражения представляли собой крупные узловые новообразования в мягких тканях в области спины либо нижней конечности. Большинство опухолей относились к смешанному или веретеноклеточному гистологическим типам. Веретенообразные клетки отмечены и при цитологических исследованиях. При генетическом анализе мутации в гене BRAF выявлены в 27 % меланом, мутации в генах NRAS и KIT не обнаружены. В 4 случаях с помощью FISH проведен анализ на наличие реаранжировки гена EWSR1, при этом диагноз саркомы не подтвердился. Полученные результаты указывают на гистологическую и молекулярную неоднородность и фенотипическую пластичность исследованных меланом. Ряд выявленных молекулярно-генетических особенностей сближает эти опухоли с саркомами