DOWNSCALING OF ERA40 FOR THE WIND FIELD IN A COMPLEX TERRAIN

This study deals with the optima] strategy for setting up the ALADIN model for the purpose of dynamic downscaling of ERA40 over the Alpine region. The mesoscale model wind field is compared with MAP-SOP reanalysis data and with wind observations at eleven Slovenian stations. As expected, there is an improvement in the conventional statistics at a 10-km grid as compared to the 40-km analyses. However, the differences between the mesoscale model scores at various domains can be greater than the difference between the MAP-SOP reanalyses and a particular mesoscale simulation

HIGH-RESOLUTION WIND CLIMATOLOGY FOR SLOVENIA: A SPATIO-TEMPORAL VERIFICATION

An NWP model AI.AD1N is applied for dynamical downscaling of ERA40. The purpose is to deduce the wind climatology of Slovenia at horizontal scales around ten kilometers and finer. Verification against MAP-SOP reanalyses indicates that the downscaling has been successful. However, MAP-SOP reanalysis data produce wind roses closer to the observations and contain more energy in the subdiurnal range. On the other hand, a 10-km ALADIN overestimates the amount of energy in longer than diurnal periods

Excitation of mixed Rossby-gravity waves by wave-mean flow interactions on the sphere

The equatorial mixed Rossby-gravity wave (MRGW) is an important contributor to tropical variability. Its excitation mechanism capable of explaining the observed MRGW variance peak at synoptic scales remains elusive. This study investigates wave-mean flow interactions as a generation process for the MRGWs using the barotropic version of the global Transient Inertia-Gravity And Rossby wave dynamics model (TIGAR), which employs Hough harmonics as the basis of spectral expansion, thereby representing MRGWs as prognostic variables. High accuracy numerical simulations manifest that interactions between waves emanating from a tropical heat source and zonal mean jets in the subtropics generate MRGWs with the variance spectra resembling the one observed in the tropical troposphere. Quantification of spectral tendencies associated with the MRGW energy growth underscores the significance of wave-mean flow interactions in comparison to excitation mechanisms driven by external forcing and wave-wave interactions. The MRGW growth and amplitude depend on the asymmetry in the zonal mean flow that may explain not only seasonal variability but also differences between the troposphere and the middle atmosphere.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, 1 table, submitted to Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Societ

Metrics of the Hadley circulation strength and associated circulation trends

This study compares trends in the Hadley cell (HC) strength using different metrics applied to the ECMWF ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses for the period 1979–2018. The HC strength is commonly evaluated by metrics derived from the mass-weighted zonal-mean stream function in isobaric coordinates. Other metrics include the upper tropospheric velocity potential, the vertical velocity in the mid-troposphere, and the water vapour transport in the lower troposphere. Seven known metrics of HC strength are complemented here by a metric of the spatially averaged HC strength, obtained by averaging the stream function in the latitude–pressure (φ–p) plane, and by the total energy of zonal-mean unbalanced circulation in the normal-mode function decomposition. It is shown that metrics, which rely on single-point values in the φ–p plane, produce unreliable 40-year trends in both the northern and southern HCs, especially in ERA-Interim; magnitudes and even the signs of the trends depend on the choice of the HC strength metric. The two new metrics alleviate the vertical and meridional inhomogeneities of the trends in HC strength. The unbalanced energy metric suggests a positive HC trend in both reanalyses, whereas the metric based on averaging the stream function finds a significant positive trend only in ERA5.</p

Metrics of the Hadley circulation strength and associated circulation trends

This study compares trends in the Hadley cell (HC) strength using different metrics applied to the ECMWF ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses for the period 1979–2018. The HC strength is commonly evaluated by metrics derived from the mass-weighted zonal-mean stream function in isobaric coordinates. Other metrics include the upper tropospheric velocity potential, the vertical velocity in the mid-troposphere, and the water vapour transport in the lower troposphere. Seven known metrics of HC strength are complemented here by a metric of the spatially averaged HC strength, obtained by averaging the stream function in the latitude–pressure (φ–p) plane, and by the total energy of zonal-mean unbalanced circulation in the normal-mode function decomposition. It is shown that metrics, which rely on single-point values in the φ–p plane, produce unreliable 40-year trends in both the northern and southern HCs, especially in ERA-Interim; magnitudes and even the signs of the trends depend on the choice of the HC strength metric. The two new metrics alleviate the vertical and meridional inhomogeneities of the trends in HC strength. The unbalanced energy metric suggests a positive HC trend in both reanalyses, whereas the metric based on averaging the stream function finds a significant positive trend only in ERA5.publishedVersio

Gravity waves excited during a minor sudden stratospheric warming

An exceptionally deep upper-air sounding launched from Kiruna airport (67.82∘ N, 20.33∘ E) on 30 January 2016 stimulated the current investigation of internal gravity waves excited during a minor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic winter 2015/16. The analysis of the radiosonde profile revealed large kinetic and potential energies in the upper stratosphere without any simultaneous enhancement of upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric values. Upward-propagating inertia-gravity waves in the upper stratosphere and downward-propagating modes in the lower stratosphere indicated a region of gravity wave generation in the stratosphere. Two-dimensional wavelet analysis was applied to vertical time series of temperature fluctuations in order to determine the vertical propagation direction of the stratospheric gravity waves in 1-hourly high-resolution meteorological analyses and short-term forecasts. The separation of upward- and downward-propagating waves provided further evidence for a stratospheric source of gravity waves. The scale-dependent decomposition of the flow into a balanced component and inertia-gravity waves showed that coherent wave packets preferentially occurred at the inner edge of the Arctic polar vortex where a sub-vortex formed during the minor SSW

The Intricacies of Identifying Equatorial Waves

Equatorial waves (EWs) are synoptic- to planetary-scale propagating disturbances at low latitudes with periods from a few days to several weeks. Here, this term includes Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby waves, mixed Rossby–gravity waves, and inertio-gravity waves, which are well described by linear wave theory, but it also other tropical disturbances such as easterly waves and the intraseasonal Madden–Julian Oscillation with more complex dynamics. EWs can couple with deep convection, leading to a substantial modulation of clouds and rainfall. EWs are amongst the dynamic features of the troposphere with the longest intrinsic predictability, and models are beginning to forecast them with an exploitable level of skill. Most of the methods developed to identify and objectively isolate EWs in observations and model fields rely on (or at least refer to) the adiabatic, frictionless linearized primitive equations on the sphere or the shallow-water system on the equatorial -plane. Common ingredients to these methods are zonal wave-number–frequency filtering (Fourier or wavelet) and/or projections onto predefined empirical or theoretical dynamical patterns. This paper gives an overview of six different methods to isolate EWs and their structures, discusses the underlying assumptions, evaluates the applicability to different problems, and provides a systematic comparison based on a case study (February 20–May 20, 2009) and a climatological analysis (2001–2018). In addition, the influence of different input fields (e.g., winds, geopotential, outgoing long-wave radiation, rainfall) is investigated. Based on the results, we generally recommend employing a combination of wave-number–frequency filtering and spatial-projection methods (and of different input fields) to check for robustness of the identified signal. In cases of disagreement, one needs to carefully investigate which assumptions made for the individual methods are most probably not fulfilled. This will help in choosing an approach optimally suited to a given problem at hand and avoid misinterpretation of the results

A global perspective of the limits of prediction skill of NWP models

This paper discusses the scale-dependent growth of the global forecast uncertainties simulated by the operational ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is shown that the initial uncertainties are largest in the tropics and have biggest amplitudes at the large scales. The growth of forecast uncertainties (ensemble spread) takes place at all scales from the beginning of forecasts. The growth is nearly uniform in the zonal wavenumbers 1–5 and strongly scale-dependent in the larger wavenumbers. Moreover, the growth from initial uncertainties at large scales appears dominant over the impact of errors cascading up from small scales. A decomposition of the ensemble spread in components associated with the balanced and unbalanced dynamics shows that the initial uncertainties are primarily in the unbalanced modes, especially at the subsynoptic scales. The growth of uncertainties is found to be faster in the balanced than in the unbalanced modes and after 0.5–1 day of forecasts the balanced errors become dominant except at the subsynoptic scales