Kryzys finansowy 2007/2008+ i jego skutki dla Unii Europejskiej i strefy euro

Article presents methods which were applied in highly developed states in the period of 2007/2008+ crisis in order to stimulate the economic growth. Some similarities and differences in applied methods are being discussed in both cases of repairing the economy as well as in the case of withdrawal from stimulation. The range of different instruments which were applied here as well as differences in methods of stimulation caused variety of different effects in the economies in question. Those differences are also seen in the EU. A number of new solutions were applied here, which were pointed at coordination of undertaken policies, as well as strengthening of their effectiveness. A number of newly tailored instruments or methods are rooted in earlier used methods and instruments, which in the past turned to be effective on limited scale and resulted in the current crisis of the euro zone. It is a difficult task to foresee how effective the new solutions would be in practice when they will be tested in real conditions of the economy. Evaluation of the new methods needs confrontation with practice, what can show how effective are the newly established instruments. Will they need some new tuning, some additional solutions and instruments or they will work designed as they are at this point

Brexit – analiza wielopłaszczyznowa możliwych skutków

The article argues that consequence of Brexit bring specifi c costs for both of the partners: EU as well as the United Kingdom. Nevertheless, the procedure of Brexit brings about also some positive aspects. The procedure itself points at the fact how European integration is important for the economy and development of each member state. The procedure helps to restructure the future Multiannual Financial Framework after 2020, it also shows that it is easier to negotiate conditions of trade being represented by the Commission than doing it individually in relations between two states. Separate problem is ascribed to deterrence of applying similar ideas in states, which had followed some of the Brexit visions and mobilized by them politically some of the citizens (Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Germany, Hungary, Italy and Poland). All such conclusions can be drawn while discussing the process, which prolongs and it is impossible to guess how fi nally it will end for the UK as well for the EU as far as their mutual economic relations are concerned. It is still possible to withdraw from the article 50 of the treaty, it is possible to accept the negotiated conditions of the withdrawal treaty or to leave the EU without an agreement. Still all mentioned solutions are possible and can be applied. The choice of one of them is a big unknown. Lack of the Brexit agreement will cause big costs for both of the partners: the EU and the UK.Artykuł ma na celu dowieść, że skutki brexitu niosą określone koszty zarówno dla UE, jak i Wielkiej Brytanii. Sama procedura brexitu wskazuje znaczenie integracji europejskiej dla rozwoju każdego z państw UE, która wspomaga proces restrukturyzacji przyszłych Wieloletnich Ram Finansowych, wskazuje, że łatwiej jest negocjować warunki handlu, mając za reprezentanta Komisję, niż na zasadzie indywidualnej – państwo z państwem. Osobny problem wiąże się z działaniem na rzecz odstraszania od podobnych koncepcji państw, w których naśladownictwo „brexitu” stało się tematem mobilizującym politycznie (Dania, Finlandia, Francja, Grecja, Niemcy, Polska, Węgry, Włochy). Brexit się przeciąga, jednak trudno przewidzieć, jak się zakończy dla UE i Wielkiej Brytanii, jeśli chodzi o przyszłe wzajemne relacje. Nadal możliwe jest cofnięcie decyzji o uruchomieniu artykułu 50 traktatu, czy zaakceptowanie wynegocjowanej umowy lub wyjście bez umowy, co oznaczałoby bardzo duże koszty dla obu stron

Model bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego XXI w. od teorii do praktyki

The article argues that the current security model was shaped in a long period. It is shown that the system was shaped by the solutions applied after the II WW, what embraces global and regional solutions. Until the end of the Cold War the applied solutions were assigned to two opposite Blocs: Western and Eastern. After 1989, which is considered to be the symbolic turning point and end of the Cold War, part of the states from the former Eastern Bloc, after introducing market and democratic reforms have joined NATO and the EU. This also included three states created after the dissolution of the former SU. The article states also that security in Europe is challenged by attempt to reconstruct the area of Russian influence. At the same time it states that this process is not limited to voluntary access of the former republics of SU but also includes annexation of the territories of sovereign Ukraine. The article illustrates that the contemporary security system is characterized by strong asymmetry of applied solutions. NATO applies liberal, cooperative solutions, while Russia uses solutions build upon force and military potential. This asymmetry and moves undertaken by Russia undermine the solutions introduced by international laws. They resulted introduction of sanctions by the US and EU states, what was followed by some political and military steps, labelled as boost NATO military presence in the NATO states bordering with Russia. The article states that in parallel to Hard Power, NATO and the EU should apply also Soft Power. Solutions applied in Russia follow the feeling of majority people in Russia who experience the trauma of former superpower and its fall. The article describes basic conditions of security system with its global and regional solutions, which create its current determinants. This concerns the level of military spending, economic potential, as well as weight of individual states and their groupings in the world scene. Key words: international security model, theory of security, practice in current security model, Soft Power, Hard Power, deterrence, balance of force

Chiny: Potencjał (gospodarczy, polityczny i militarny) jako instrument kształtowania nowego układu międzynarodowego

Gospodarka ChRL przeszła przez kilka etapów reform i zmian, które pozwoliły na awans gospodarczy, polityczny i militarny tego państwa. Objęło to okres od 1979 r., kiedy zaczęto w ChRL wdrażać pierwsze reformy. Reformy rozpoczęto od zmian w rolnictwie, co miało na celu poprawę zaopatrzenia w żywność. Oznacza to, że dojście do obecnej pozycji ChRL w świecie zajęło prawie pół wieku. W artykule przedstawia się stopniową ewolucję polityki i jej wpływ na gospodarkę oraz na budowanie potencjału polityczno-militarnego w skali regionu i świata. Przedstawia się tu prognozy zmian przy założeniu dotychczasowego trendu rozwoju w kontekście zarówno regionalnych, jak i globalnych graczy. Podkreśla się znaczenie w tym procesie rozwiązań, które decydowały o „otwarciu gospodarki” na napływ technologii, handel czy transfery bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych. Odrębnym problemem jest wskazanie na układy sojusznicze i ich ewolucję oraz instrumenty stosowane w polityce zagranicznej. Omawia się tu m.in. bieżące napięcia w relacjach np. z USA na tle tzw. „wojen handlowych”. Podsumowanie artykułu zawarte jest w możliwych scenariuszach, które mogą znaleźć zastosowanie w przyszłości w polityce ChRL. Słowa kluczowe: Chiny, gospodarka ChRL, handel bronią, potencjał polityczny, potencjał gospodarczy, potencjał politycznyChinese economy went through several stages of reform and changes, which enabled economic, political and military advancement of this country. The reforms are dated back to 1979, when fi rst changes in China were proceeded. Reforms started in agriculture sector improving food supply in the country. All this means that period needed to obtain current position by China in the world took nearly half a century. Article presents the gradual evolution of politics and its impact on the economy what was followed by a buildup of political and military potential gaining weight first in the region and after also on global scale. Prognoses of possible changes are presented here based on the assumption that current trends are continued also in the future, and they will embrace regional and global players. It is stressed that an import ant role of the Chinese success story can be ascribed to „opening of the economy” what stimulated infl ows of technology, trade as well as direct foreign investments. Some space is given to show the alliance layout and its evolution. The picture is complemented by presentation of instruments which were used in foreign policy. Current tensions are also discussed what is illustrated by the current „trade wars” with the USA. The summing up of the article is presented in a form of possible scenarios which can be applied in the future Chinese policy. Key words: China, CPR’s economy, arms trade, political potential, economic potential, political potentia

Transatlantycka liberalizacja handlu i przepływu kapitału

The concept of liberalization of economic relations between the EU and US is not new. Never before 2013 negotiations of such an agreement were performed. Until May 2014 fi ve negotiation rounds were conducted. The leading negotiators state that the date of bringing the negotiations to the closing stage, which is the end of current year, can be kept. The TTIP Agreement is supposed to regulate trade liberalization and capital flows between the two markets of the EU and US. The agreement is more focused on elimination of nontariff barriers than custom barriers, which are relatively low already. According to the WTO the customs barriers between the EU and US measured by weighted tariff s are below 3% in their average level. Relatively higher restrictiveness in accessing the market is observed in case of the American market than in the EU one, protection of NTB is estimated at 36–38% respectively. Elimination of barriers in mutual relations will be conducive in increasing competitiveness of produced goods and services manufactured on both markets, it will strengthen technical potentials, improve climate for innovations of both partners. Moreover, TTIP is considered as a solution which will have positive impact on rates of economic growth, GDP, trade and capital transfers. TTIP Agreement is considered as a solution which will be conducive for S&M companies to join the main stream of business on a bigger scale in comparison with the current conditions. Those companies dominate in creation of the GDP as well as employment on both sides of the Pacific. The role of the TTIP is not limited to stimulation of growth or employment on the two markets. As it is also considered that TTIP as an open solution to Access of third states, will have strong impact on Word economy, with special impulses created for those markets which are linked by preferential agreements of access with the EU and US. It is assumed that conclusion of the TTIP agreement will mobilize to return to negotiation table at the suspended Doha Round of the WTO. In sum there believes that the TTIP will have impact on the dynamics of the world economy which slowed down after the crisis of 2008+. Key words: TTIP, liberalization of trade, liberalization of capital transfers, non-tariff barriers, tariff barriers, free trade agreement, harmonization of law, transatlantic marke

Szansa Polski po kryzysie finansowym 2007/2008+

The Polish economy has proved that it works better in difficult (read crisis) conditions than the most economies in the region as well as the economies from the group of most developed economically states. Poland in the group of OECD was shown in parallel to Australia and New Zealand, which represent on that lists and rankings relatively better position than Czech Republic or Slovakia. The achieved results are effect of different transformation strategies which were applied in Poland in comparison to remaining economies from the region. This is evidenced by relatively high and still in rise position of Poland in different rankings: growth and job creation, competitiveness, political risk, dynamics of changes, rates of growth, macrostabilization etc. Good economic performance determines the social and political climate of the country, enabling it to continue changes which are required by a catching up economy in global and restructuring world economy. Poland was consequently in her transformation strategy preparing its economy to work in conditions which are characterized by more intensified cooperation than the one of the remaining countries in question. The Polish experience of transformation was conducted in a different way than the strategies of Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. The evident success of the applied strategy in light of a number of states which wait in a subordinated manner to join the main stream economy. In the past IMF, World Bank in their yearbooks published regularly. This experience indicates clearly that Poland is able to prepare the countries of the two European dimension (Eastern and Southern) for training. This can has a specific impact on preparation of such changes with participation of Poland. Poland can use its own experience to build-up the EU’s Transformation Compendium. Poland is also able and willing to support by knowledge, models and expertise processes of systemic changes and after development in states which try to enter the road of changes, growth and catching up

Wojna handlowa USA–ChRL i jej konsekwencje

Signals of coming trade war between USA and China could be seen in slogans stated in the presidential campaign in 2017. In 2018 the US administration guided by president Donald Trump moved from slogans to action concerning protection moves in trade policy. Escalation in application of customs tariff s by the USA in imports of goods from China provoked retorsions from side of the Chinese market. Finally USA and China had signed fi rst trade agreement reducing part of the tensions caused by the trade confl ict. The trade war and signed agreement play specifi c role analysed in a wider context of accompanying conditions, which cover slowing down rates of growth in the world economy. US-China trade war cannot be perceived as a bilateral confl ict, as it has wider context which is resulting from breaking (disturbing) global value chains (GVC). Conducted in the study analysis shows, that the new agreement signed between US and China is a fi rst and very cautious move towards normalization of mutual relations. It can lead towards some wider agreements concerning mutual trade between the two markets. It is assumed that the current confl ict will result in deep changes in production patterns in Asian markets, those highly developed and those developing. The US-China agreement, if it’s conditions are to be fulfi lled can have a strong impact on improvement of the current account of the USA. Improvement of the US current account can be achieved in cost of other Chinese trade partners.Sygnały zapowiadające wojnę handlową między USA a Chińską Republiką Ludową można było dostrzec już w hasłach głoszonych przez Donalda Trumpa, podczas kampanii wyborczej w 2017 r. W 2018 r. administracja USA zaczęła wprowadzać hasła z kampanii do praktyki polityki handlowej. Eskalacja amerykańskich działań wobec ChRL spotkała się z odpowiedziami retorsyjnymi. Ostatecznie USA i ChRL podpisały pierwszą umowę handlową, której celem jest łagodzenie powstałych w ramach konfl iktu napięć. Ma to szczególne znaczenie w szerszym kontekście warunków, które decydują o słabnięciu koniunktury gospodarki światowej. Wojna handlowa USA–ChRL to konfl ikt, który prowadzi do zrywania (zaburzania) globalnych łańcuchów tworzenia wartości dodanej (GVC). Przeprowadzona analiza wskazuje, że nowa umowa zawarta między USA a ChRL jest pierwszym, ostrożnym krokiem w kierunku normalizacji wzajemnych relacji. Może prowadzić do wypracowania szerszych uzgodnień dotyczących relacji handlowych między gospodarkami. Zakłada się głębokie zmiany w strukturze produkcji wysoko rozwiniętych gospodarek azjatyckich i tych, reprezentujących niższy poziom rozwoju. Umowa, jeśli będzie realizowana, może wpłynąć na poprawę rachunku bieżącego bilansu płatniczego USA, co może jednak oznaczać pogorszenie pozycji handlowej innych partnerów ChRL

Kryzys 2007/2008+ a poszerzenie pojęcia populizmu w ekonomii – Hasłowość, instrumentalność, skuteczność

Z wprowadzenia: "Artykuł skupia się na ewolucji pojęcia populizmu w warunkach kryzysu 2007/2008+ w grupie nowych państw członkowskich UE (tzw. grupa potransformacyjna). Chodzi tu o pokazanie naturalnych dla tych krajów prób powrotu do pewnych rozwiązań pozarynkowych, od których wcześniej odeszły one w ramach transformacji. Jest to nowa forma populizmu, choć trudno ją tak jednoznacznie interpretować. Osoby głoszące tego typu hasła, jak już to bywało w historii z populistami, skupiają wokół siebie spore rzesze zwolenników, a wiara, że ich postulaty mogą być zrealizowane, powoduje, iż zyskują poparcie działania polityków prowadzone w imię tychże haseł. Paradoks jednak polega na tym, że hasła te są niemożliwe do realizacji – w rzeczywistości podejmuje się działania, które już nie są populistyczne. W artykule postawione zostanie pytanie, na ile konfrontacja rzeczywistości z obietnicami może być czynnikiem wybuchowym, wywołanym niespełnieniem obietnic, a na ile prowadzić do normalizacji i akceptacji zmian prowzrostowych, zgodnych z koncepcjami liberałów. W zakończeniu przedstawiony zostanie scenariusz możliwych rozwiązań, przygotowany dla Polski."(...

Krakowskie Studia Międzynarodowe nr 1 (XV), 2018 (Współpraca Chińskiej Republiki Ludowej z Federacją Rosyjską a nowy wymiar stosunków międzynarodowych w XXI wieku. Część 1 Znaczenie współpracy Chin i Rosji dla kształtowania nowego porządku międzynarodowego)

ZE WSTĘPU: "Celem kolejnego tomu „Krakowskich Studiów Międzynarodowych” (KSM) jest dążenie do przedstawienia głównych przesłanek i następstw zacieśnienia współpracy między Chińską Republiką Ludową (CHRL) a Federacją Rosyjską, określanych współcześnie zamiennie w publicystyce i pracach naukowych jako Chiny i Rosja. Zagadnienie powyższe zostało zaprojektowane w dwóch powiązanych ze sobą zakresach tematyczno-merytorycznych: 1) Współdziałanie Chin z Rosją w kształtowaniu nowego porządku międzynarodowego – cześć 1; 2) Chiny i Rosja wobec nowych wyzwań bezpieczeństwa i współpracy międzynarodowej – część 2. Autorzy obu tomów złożyli swoje artykuły w Oficynie Wydawniczej Krakowskiej Akademii im. Andrzeja Frycza Modrzewskiego (KAAFM) zgodnie z ustalonym trybem redakcyjnym na przełomie kwietnia i maja 2018 r. Jednak przyspieszony bieg ważnych wydarzeń międzynarodowych (od maja po lipiec 2018 r.), związanych z podjętą problematyką badawczą części 1 i 2 KSM (2018), skłonił redaktora naukowego tomu do ich szerszego skomentowania w obu odrębnie przygotowanych częściach wprowadzenia.

An Empirical Study of Affective and Cognitive Functions in Compulsive Sexual Behavior Disorder

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite the inclusion of the Compulsive Sexual Behavior Disorder (CSBD) in the International Classification of Diseases, very little is known about the underlying affective and cognitive processes. To fill this gap, we compared CSBD subjects and Healthy-Controls (HC) across negative/positive valence, cognitive and sensorimotor systems, as proposed by the Research Domain Criteria framework. METHODS: 74 heterosexual CSBD and 66 matched HC males were studied with 10 questionnaires and 8 behavioral tasks. Analyses were conducted with frequent and Bayesian statistics. RESULTS: CSBD individuals showed significantly higher (than HC) punishment sensitivity, anxiety, depression, compulsivity, and impulsivity symptoms. Frequentist statistical analysis revealed significant interaction between subject group and condition in Incentive Delay Task, concerning the strength of motivation and hedonic value of erotic rewards. Bayesian analysis produced evidence for the absence of group differences in Facial Discrimination Task, Risk-Ambiguity Task, and Learning Task. Also, Bayesian methods provided evidence for group differences in the Emotional Stroop Task and the Incentive Delay Task. Sexual Discounting Task, Attentional Network Task, and Stop Signal Task produced mixed results. CONCLUSIONS: Higher punishment sensitivity and impulsivity among CSBD subjects, along with significant interaction between these groups and erotic vs. non-erotic reward processing is in line with previous findings on negative/positive valence alterations in CSBD patients. This result shows that there are similarities to substance and behavioral addictions. The absence of group differences and mixed results related to cognitive and sensorimotor systems raise concerns to what extent CSBD resembles a wide spectrum of impairments observed in disorders, and demand further research