Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in Bosnia and Herzegovina using SPEI

Average monthly air temperatures in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) exhibit a notable rise during summer, ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 °C per decade, while precipitation experiences a significant decrease of up to 8 mm per decade. Climate models, across various RCP scenarios, project an increase in air temperature, that is most pronounced in the summer season. Additionally, there is a projected frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation during autumn. In BiH, agricultural production faces substantial risks, including droughts, spring and autumn frosts, hail, and floods. Recent years have witnessed extreme hydrological events, notably the 2012 drought and the 2014 floods. Strategic documents highlight the critical importance of addressing floods and droughts for agriculture, as well as their implications for the environment, households, and industry. To assess the severity of extreme hydrological events and their impact on agriculture, with a specific emphasis on autumn and summer in Bosnia and Herzegovina, average and peak values of the Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were calculated separately for the periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, focusing on October and August. Compared to the reference climatic period the current climate is characterized by shifts between intense wet and dry periods, with very few years exhibiting stable and expected weather conditions. Identified as extremely wet and flood-prone years, SPEI2 October values for 1974 (2.42), 1996 (2.13), 2001 (2.24), and 2014 (2.05) stand out, with only one extremely dry year in 1985 (-2.21). SPEI2 August indicates extremely dry years, notably 2012 (-2.35) and 2017 (-2.25)

A Roadmap to consoloidate Agricultural Water Management Research in Bosnia and Herzegovina

22 Pags.- Fots.- Figs. Conference from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme: "SMART WATER: Promoting Smart Agricultural Water Management in Bosnia and Herzegovina".What is the role of research? • How can researchers and farmers work together? • How can we detect problems and seek solutions? • How can we raise the profile of agricultural water management research? • How to make universities and research institutes stronger and more active in research? • How can funding for research be useful for agricultural water management? • What is needed to be more competitive in International funding opportunities?Peer reviewe

A roadmap to consolidate research and innovation in agricultural water management in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) accumulates challenges in the areas of research and innovation (R&I), agricultural water management (AWM) and their intersection. In the decade 2012–2022, the BiH gross domestic product per capita in current US$ increased by 6.2% annually. However, improvements are slowly arriving in R&I and AWM. In this period, relevant challenges to AWM have materialized, such as climate change effects or the need to implement an interconnected vision of ecosystem services. In the R&I arena, the societal demand for knowledge goods remains low, while the reforms of higher education and R&I funding systems have become urgent. This paper set out to elaborate a realistic and feasible policy roadmap to consolidate R&I in AWM in BiH. The methodology included an assessment of policies and sector performance, the analysis of stakeholder perceptions, the development of strategic directions and the design of a strategy. Desk research and stakeholder consultations (33 interviews, six workshops, 179 persons in total) were used to take stock of the current situation and expectations for the future. Stakeholders were divided into knowledge supply and knowledge demand, with five and six subcategories, respectively. Relations were established among the key enabling factors, the needs and the capacities of the involved stakeholders. The TOWS (Threats, Opportunities, Weaknesses and Strengths) matrix permitted to identify policy strategies. A Weaknesses – Opportunities, conservative or mini-maxi strategy was selected, owing to the relevance of system weaknesses (such as low investments, poor return of R&I to society or low R&I for AWM adaptation) and opportunities (such as the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans, Smart Specialization or regional partnerships). The policy roadmap was structured along three policy goals: strengthen R&I, strengthen AWM and identify / fund local R&I priorities for AWM. Policy goals included policy instruments promoting eco-efficient use of resources and sustainable development of rural areas.Este proyecto ha recibido financiación del programa de investigación e innovación Horizonte 2020 de la Unión Europea en virtud del acuerdo de subvención nº 952396Stakeholder consultationPolicy supportSWOTTOWSPolicy roadmapPolicy goalPublishe

Climate change impact on the main components of thornthwaite-mather water balance

The main objective of this study is to determine the severity of changes in some components of the water balance for the specific area in the two developing countries (Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kaunas, Lithuania), in order to understand the significance of their influence and help future mitigation and adaptation activities. Soil water balance was negative in both stations in the last 20 years: quantity amount bigger in Sarajevo, but continuous longer in KaunasVytauto Didžiojo universitetasŽemės ūkio akademij

A reference evapotranspiration map for Bosnia and Herzegovina

There are three major challenges for climatic data availability for Reference Evapotranspiration (ET0) calculations in Bosnia and Herzegovina: limited data availability, discontinuity of data records, and low station density. The main objective of this study was to apply reliable methods to calculate and spatially distribute ET0, while considering the impact of the elevation. A 20 m spatial resolution map was created for mean ET0 values at monthly, vegetation period (April–September) and annual temporal resolution at municipality (143 municipalities), regional (4 regions) and national spatial resolutions. 108 weather stations for the period 1961–2016 (56 years) were utilized for spatial interpolation of ET0 using kriging with external drift method. The required elevation for ET0 estimation at each grid node was extracted from the digital elevation model of Bosnia and Herzegovina. ET0 was calculated using FAO-56 Penman-Monteith, and in cases where only minimum and maximum temperature data were available the Hargreaves-Samani equation adjusted with locally appropriate empirical radiation coefficient was used. A gradual decrease of mean ET0 values from the southern to central and northern to central part of the country is notable. For the all seasons (monthly, vegetation and annually), the southern region has greater ET0 than the other three regions (north, west and central-east), which are similar. The long-term mean annual ET0 for Bosnia and Herzegovina is 716 mm, approximately 78% (559 mm) of which occurs during in the vegetation period. Keywords: Reference evapotranspiration, Interpolation, Penman-Monteith, Limited data, Calibratio

Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina

The rural population in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH), which constitutes more than half of the total population, experienced serious incidences of extreme weather events in the past two decades. This part of the population is vulnerable to climate change due to significant dependence on agriculture as a climate-sensitive livelihood option. However, the source of their vulnerability is due not only to the extent and magnitude of these extreme climate events, but also to the internal status within the vulnerable systems before the occurrence of such events. In order to explore the different dimensions of vulnerability, we used a set of 20 indicators to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of the rural population to climate change at the local level in BH. Two summarizing and two weighting methods were applied to assess vulnerability—Equal weights (EW) and principal component analysis (PCA). Based on the results obtained, we concluded that the current socio-economic conditions and the increased environmental pressure as a result of the present human-environment interactions are the main determinants of vulnerability in most vulnerable municipalities, rather than the degree to which these municipalities are exposed to significant climatic variations. Most vulnerable municipalities are located across the north, with a gradual decrease in vulnerability towards the central, north, and east of the country. Vulnerability increases again from here towards the south of the country. The number of municipalities classified as the highest and highly vulnerable increased when the second summarizing method and weighted indicators were used. However, the general geographic distribution of vulnerability did not change substantially compared to the first method. The approaches used in this study provide some valuable results at the local level, and are presented in a way that is practical for decision-making processes and may serve as a base for further research when designing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, especially in the regions with similar climatic and socio-economic conditions.publishedVersio

Validation and calibration of various reference evapotranspiration alternative methods under the climate conditions of Bosnia and Herzegovina

In Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), the number of weather stations (WS) that are monitoring all climatic parameters required for FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-PM) equation is limited. In fact, it is of great need and importance to achieve the possibility of calculating reference evapotranspiration (ET0) for every WS in BiH (around 150), regardless of the number of climate parameters which they collect. Solving this problem is possible by using alternative equations that require less climatological data for reliable estimation of daily and monthly ET0. The main objective of this study was to validate and determine, compared to the FAO-PM method, a suitable and reliable alternative ET0 equations that are requiring less input data and have a simple calculation procedure, with a special focus on Thornthwaite and Turc as methods previously often used in BiH. To fulfill this objective, 12 alternative ET0 calculation methods and 21 locally adjusted versions of same equations were validated against FAO-PM ET0 method. Daily climatic data, recorded at sixteen WS, including mean maximum and minimum air temperature (°C), precipitation (mm), minimum and maximum relative humidity (%), wind speed (m s−1) and sunshine hours (h) for the period 1961–2015 (55 years) were collected and averaged over each month. Several types of statistical indicators: the determination coefficient (R2), mean bias error (MBE), the variance of the distribution of differences (sd2), the root mean square difference (RMSD) and the mean absolute error (MAE) were used to assess alternative ET0 equation performance. The results, confirmed by various statistical indicators, shows that the most suitable and reliable alternative equation for monthly ET0 calculation in BiH is the locally adjusted Trajkovic method. Adjusted Hargreaves-Samani method was the second best performing method. The two most frequently used ET0 calculation methods in BiH until now, Thornthwaite and Turc, were ranked low.publishedVersio

Impact of Climate Change on the Annual Water Balance in a Humid Climate

Lithuania and Bosnia and Herzegovina are considered as countries with high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity to cope with climate change. The entire territory of these countries is characterized by the warming trend, with positive trends in both the maximum and the minimum temperatures throughout the year. The increase in air temperature has resulted in change of evapotranspiration and mean annual water balance values. These countries are also frequently faced with an occurrence of severe droughts and heavy floods. The main purpose of this study was to determine and compare the severity of changes in mean annual water balance for two humid climatic zones, in order to understand how different areas of similar climate characteristics react to climate change and to analyze the significance of their influence. Monthly weather data from two weather stations, Kaunas (Lithuania) and Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina), for the time period of 30 years (1988 - 2017) were used to determine and analyze the mean annual water balance. The results indicate that climate change has a different effect on the water balance of these two humid areas. Both locations showed a positive trend of reference evapotranspiration, with an increase of 1.450 mm year1 to 1.503 mm year1. However, the total runoff and soil moisture deficit are decreasing in Kaunas (-0.480 mm and -2.114 mm year1, respectively), while they are increasing in Sarajevo (0.492 mm and 0.485 mm year1, respectively)Vytauto Didžiojo universitetasŽemės ūkio akademij

Impact of climate change on the annual water balance in a humid climate

eISSN 1800-9492Lithuania and Bosnia and Herzegovina are considered as countries with high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity to cope with climate change. The entire territory of these countries is characterized by the warming trend, with positive trends in both the maximum and the minimum temperatures throughout the year. The increase in air temperature has resulted in change of evapotranspiration and mean annual water balance values. These countries are also frequently faced with an occurrence of severe droughts and heavy floods. The main purpose of this study was to determine and compare the severity of changes in mean annual water balance for two humid climatic zones, in order to understand how different areas of similar climate characteristics react to climate change and to analyze the significance of their influence. Monthly weather data from two weather stations, Kaunas (Lithuania) and Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina), for the time period of 30 years (1988 – 2017) were used to determine and analyze the mean annual water balance. The results indicate that climate change has a different effect on the water balance of these two humid areas. Both locations showed a positive trend of reference evapotranspiration, with an increase of 1.450 mm year-1 to 1.503 mm year-1. However, the total runoff and soil moisture deficit are decreasing in Kaunas (-0.480 mm and -2.114 mm year-1, respectively), while they are increasing in Sarajevo (0.492 mm and 0.485 mm year-1, respectively)Vytauto Didžiojo universitetasŽemės ūkio akademij

Climate and aridity change

Significant global warming occurred in the twentieth century and especially in the most recent decades. Climate change is a complex phenomenon, accompanied by a wide variety of effects. Rapid alternation, between severe heat wave/drought and abundant rainfall/ flooding, is more and more obvious. The article presents the annual and vegetation season meteorological conditions changes at Kaunas (Lithuania), Horki (Belarus), Sisak (Croatia) and Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) between 1996-2016. According to the aridity index, based on temperature and rainfall as weather parameters, this study analyzed the climate dryness risk. This study demonstrates how climate change affects traditional temperature and aridity zones. The movement of temperature and aridity zones could trigger ecosystem migration and land use change. However, the evidence and velocity of ecosystem migration and adaptation in response to the shifting of temperature and aridity zones require more researchVytauto Didžiojo universitetasŽemės ūkio akademij