Continuous-time state-space modelling of the hot hand in basketball

We investigate the hot hand phenomenon using data on 110,513 free throws taken in the National Basketball Association (NBA). As free throws occur at unevenly spaced time points within a game, we consider a state-space model formulated in continuous time to investigate serial dependence in players' success probabilities. In particular, the underlying state process can be interpreted as a player's (latent) varying form and is modelled using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our results support the existence of the hot hand, but the magnitude of the estimated effect is rather small

A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football

We investigate the potential occurrence of change points - commonly referred to as "momentum shifts" - in the dynamics of football matches. For that purpose, we model minute-by-minute in-game statistics of Bundesliga matches using hidden Markov models (HMMs). To allow for within-state correlation of the variables considered, we formulate multivariate state-dependent distributions using copulas. For the Bundesliga data considered, we find that the fitted HMMs comprise states which can be interpreted as a team showing different levels of control over a match. Our modelling framework enables inference related to causes of momentum shifts and team tactics, which is of much interest to managers, bookmakers, and sports fans

A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football

We investigate the potential occurrence of change points—commonly referred to as “momentum shifts”—in the dynamics of football matches. For that purpose, we model minute-by-minute in-game statistics of Bundesliga matches using hidden Markov models (HMMs). To allow for within-state dependence of the variables, we formulate multivariate state-dependent distributions using copulas. For the Bundesliga data considered, we find that the fitted HMMs comprise states which can be interpreted as a team showing different levels of control over a match. Our modelling framework enables inference related to causes of momentum shifts and team tactics, which is of much interest to managers, bookmakers, and sports fans.publishedVersio

Bettors' reaction to match dynamics -- Evidence from in-game betting

It is still largely unclear to what extent bettors update their prior assumptions about the strength and form of competing teams considering the dynamics during the match. This is of interest not only from the psychological perspective, but also as the pricing of live odds ideally should be driven both by the (objective) outcome probabilities and also the bettors' behaviour. Using state-space models (SSMs) to account for the dynamically evolving latent sentiment of the betting market, we analyse a unique high-frequency data set on stakes placed during the match. We find that stakes in the live-betting market are driven both by perceived pre-game strength and by in-game strength, the latter as measured by the Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities (VAEP) approach. Both effects vary over the course of the match

When Robots Write the News: A Guideline Based Interview Study on Opportunities and Risks of Using Artificial Intelligence in Political Reporting in Germany and the U.S.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly being implemented in journalism, possibly leading to various fundamental changes within the field. Especially the forerunner countries U.S. and Germany make use of the technologies in several sub-sectors of reporting. While pioneer-studies exploring said implementation have focused on audience, as well as practitioners’ perceptions of AI, a focus on the democratically crucial political journalism is lacking. Therefore, the given paper investigates how those working in the journalistic field in Germany and the U.S. evaluate AI-usage in political reporting. Scopes, contexts, and opportunities, as well as risks of the technologies are considered. Eleven interviews with experts from leading news organizations were conducted and analyzed using a qualitative content analysis, focusing on comparisons between the two countries. Results show varying strategies of AI implementation within the two countries, with election coverage being the predominant political topic reported on with the help of AI. Furthermore, the findings show that AI could possibly free journalists from routine tasks, and allows for more in-depth and large-scale research, which in turn could lead to an increase in the qualitative standard of political journalism. However, journalists also point towards ethical and economic concerns. Considering the results, directions for future research and the practice of journalism are discussed

The hot hand in professional darts

Ötting M, Langrock R, Deutscher C, Leos-Barajas V. The hot hand in professional darts. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. 2020;183(2):565-580.We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a nearly ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost 1 year of tournament data, corresponding to 167492 dart throws in total, we use state space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying form, and we use auto-regressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. Our results regarding the persistence of the latent process indicate a weak hot hand effect, but the evidence is inconclusive

Performance under pressure in skill tasks: An analysis of professional darts

Ötting M, Deutscher C, Schneemann S, Langrock R, Gehrmann S, Scholten H. Performance under pressure in skill tasks: An analysis of professional darts. PLOS ONE. 2020;15(2): e0228870.Understanding and predicting how individuals perform in high-pressure situations is of importance in designing and managing workplaces. We investigate performance under pressure in professional darts as a near-ideal setting with no direct interaction between players and a high number of observations per subject. Analyzing almost one year of tournament data covering 32,274 dart throws, we find no evidence in favor of either choking or excelling under pressure