Testing for Cointegration in Misspecified Systems –A Monte Carlo Study of Size Distortions

When dealing with time series that are integrated of order one, the concept of cointegration becomes crucial for the specification of a model. Using the best available tests, one can reduce the probability of estimating econometric models that are misspecified. This paper investigates the small sample performance of four well-known cointegration tests when a system has been misspecified by leaving out one relevant explanatory variable from a system with one cointegrating vector. In a Monte Carlo study, the size distortions of the Augmented Engle-Granger (Engle and Granger, 1987), Johansen’s (1988) maximum eigenvalue, Johansen’s (1991) trace and the Boswijk (1989) Wald tests are examined. The Johansen trace test adjusted by the finite sample correction of Reinsel and Ahn (1988) is found to have the most robust performance when lag length in the test equations is chosen according to traditional information criteria.Cointegration; Tests; Monte Carlo

Unemployment and Labour Force Participation in Sweden

This paper investigates the relationship between Swedish unemployment and labour-force participation. Cointegration analysis supports a robust long-run relationship between the two variables, regardless of whether aggregate or gender-specific rates are used. This finding puts the empiri-cal relevance of the unemployment invariance hypothesis into question.Cointegration; Discouraged worker

Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods

Economic theory suggests that variations in countries’ age structure should affect the economy on an aggregate level. This paper investigates the relationship between age structure and GDP in 20 OECD countries using annual data from 1970 to 1999. Using new methodology, the relationship between the variables can be formulated in levels despite the presence of unit roots in the time series. Applying two panel cointegration tests proposed by Pedroni (1995, 1997a, 1999), support is found for a long run relationship between GDP and the number of people in five different age groups. Coefficient estimates from panel regressions support effects in line with the life cycle hypothesis and human capital theory; children and retirees are found to have a negative or relatively smaller positive effect on GDP than productive age groups.Age structure; GDP; Panel cointegration

The Effect on the Swedish Real Economy of the Financial Crisis

This paper investigates the effects of the financial crisis on the Swedish real economy. In order to do this, an index which describes the financial conditions of the Swedish economy is developed. The index indicates that domestic Swedish financial conditions have deteriorated substan-tially during 2008 and are now at the highest level since the crisis of the early 1990’s. A Bayesian VAR model with both US and Swedish variables is used to assess the quantitative effects of the financial crisis on Swedish real GDP growth. Results suggest that the Swedish economy will grow substantially slower in the next couple of years due to the financial crisis.GDP growth; Bayesian VAR

The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?

This paper investigates the econometric properties of the Taylor (1993) rule applied to U.S., Australian and Swedish data to judge its empirical relevance. Little attention has been paid to the time series properties of the data underlying interest rate rules, nor the estimations themselves, despite the rise in popularity of Taylor-like rules in both empirical and theoretical work. Unit root tests indicate that the variables commonly used in such modelling are likely to be integrated of order one or near integrated. Given that the variables in the Taylor rule are integrated of order one or near integrated processes, cointegration is a necessary condition both for consistent estimation of the parameters of the model and compatibility between the model and the data. Tests find little support for cointegration and, together with an out-of-sample forecast exercise, suggest that we should have serious doubts about the Taylor rule as a reasonable description of how monetary policy is conducted in the countries considered in this study. Parameter estimates from the standard Taylor rule regressions are therefore likely to be inconsistent and caution should be taken before for central bank policy is evaluated using such methods.Monetary policy; Taylor rule; Cointegration

The Properties of Survey-Based Inflation Expectations in Sweden

This paper assesses the properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. The survey is conducted by Prospera once every quarter and consists of respondents from businesses and labour-market organisa-tions. The paper shows that inflation expectations measured in this sur-vey tend to be biased and inefficient forecasts of future inflation. Results also indicate that long-run inflation expectations are overly adaptive with respect to actual inflation. Finally, evaluations of forecast accuracy show that these inflation expectations are worse predictors of inflation than those of a professional forecasting institution and also typically outper-formed by a simple autoregressive model. Overall, our results indicate that economic agents’ expectations formation process is suboptimal and/or the survey fails to capture the true inflation expectations.Survey data; Inflation targeting

The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations

In this paper, we evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations in Sweden. Results show that the expectations are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance, we find that the survey participants generally perform worse than a con-stant forecast based on reasonable assumptions regarding the inflation target and productivity growth. Our findings indicate that caution should be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.Survey data;

The Persistent Labour-Market Effects of the Financial Crisis

This paper estimates the effects of the financial crisis on the Swedish labour market. Using an unobserved components model and an external forecast, we estimate a future path for the NAIRU. Judging by this analysis, the labour market will be in equilibrium again in 2013. Linking the NAIRU to other labour-market variables through an estimated vector error correction model and population projections, it is found that this new equilibrium is associated with a smaller equilibrium labour force and lower equilibrium employment.Discouraged worker; Unobserved components; Cointegration

Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative treatments of priors and sample periods. That said, there is also reason not to overemphasize the role of money. The predictive power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice. --Bayesian VAR,out-of-sample forecasting,Granger causality,monetary aggregates,inflation,monetary policy,European Central Bank.

Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data

The informational value of the aggregate US unemployment rate has recently been questioned be-cause of a unit root in the labor-force participation rate; the lack of mean reversion implies that long-run changes in unemployment rates are highly unlikely to reflect long-run changes in jobless-ness. This paper shows that this critique also extends to unemployment rates for sub-populations, such as prime-aged males.Unit-root test;