Modelling regional housing prices in Spain

We estimate the long-run relationship between real housing prices of new dwellings and their fundamentals in a panel of the 50 Spanish provinces between 1985 and 2018. We fi nd acointegrating relationship between real house prices and per capita real income, unemployment rate and demographic density. According to our estimates, house prices were above their long-run equilibrium values in most provinces in 2007, during the peak of the previous boom, but there was substantial heterogeneity in the size of this gap. At the end of 2018 house prices were slightly below their estimated long-run equilibrium values in most provinces, but a few of them exhibited moderate positive deviations from those levels. Our results highlight the importance of modelling house prices at the regional level, as aggregate results may hide important heterogeneous developments.En el presente trabajo estimamos la relación a largo plazo entre los precios de la vivienda nueva reales y sus fundamentales en un panel de 50 provincias españolas entre 1985 y 2018. Encontramos una relación de cointegración entre los precios de vivienda reales y la renta real per cápita, la tasa de paro y la densidad demográfi ca. De acuerdo con nuestras estimaciones, los precios de la vivienda estaban por encima de sus valores de equilibrio a largo plazo en la mayoría de las provincias en 2007, en el punto máximo de la anterior expansión, pero había una elevada heterogeneidad en la magnitud de estas diferencias. A fi nales de 2018, los precios de la vivienda estaban ligeramente por debajo de su nivel de equilibrio estimado de largo plazo en la mayoría de las provincias, mientras que en otras el valor de estos activos inmobiliarios superaba, aunque muy moderadamente, dicho nivel de largo plazo. Nuestros resultados muestran la importancia de modelizar los precios de la vivienda a escala regional, puesto que los resultados agregados pueden encubrir importantes evoluciones heterogéneas

Recent developments in financing and bank lending to the non-financial private sector: first half of 2022

Artículo de revistaIn 2022 to date there has been a tightening of financing conditions for firms and households, with a strong rise in the cost of corporate debt issuance and a contraction in the supply of loans. However, the pass-through of market interest rates to bank lending interest rates appears to be somewhat slower than in other historical bouts of interest rate hikes. Against this backdrop, the flow of new funding raised by households and firms and their outstanding debt have increased moderately or remained stable. Lending by deposit institutions (DIs) for non-financial business activities declined in 2022 Q1, more than offsetting the increase in the balance of loans for house purchase, while in April and May their joint performance was moderately expansionary. Since early 2022 and despite the worsening of the macro-financial environment, the credit quality of the DIs’ portfolio has continued to improve in general, except in the case of financing allocated to the sectors most affected by the pandemic, as well as in Official Credit Institute (ICO)-backed loans as a whole. The materialisation of adverse macro-financial scenarios might lead to less buoyancy in the volume of bank lending and the deterioration of its quality in the coming quarters

Distressed firms, zombie firms and zombie lending: a taxonomy

El presente artículo desarrolla una taxonomía de empresas vulnerables y empresas zombis haciendo uso de una rica base de datos que combina información detallada a nivel de empresa y a nivel de banco-empresa en España. Una empresa vulnerable exhibe tanto insolvencia de flujo de caja como insolvencia de balance, mientras que una empresa zombi es una empresa vulnerable que ha recibido nuevo crédito bancario. En esta investigación se llevan a cabo diversos análisis para testear la validez de estas definiciones. Por ejemplo, se encuentra una correlación negativa entre la situación de vulnerabilidad y la probabilidad de obtener nuevo crédito bancario. Sin embargo, el banco principal de una empresa vulnerable es más reticente a restringir la oferta de crédito a dicha empresa que un banco sin previa exposición a la compañía, lo que puede reflejar los incentivos del banco principal a refinanciar los préstamos a esta para evitar un aumento de la morosidad y de las provisiones. Este apoyo financiero contribuye a que las empresas zombis continúen operando en el mercado durante más tiempo que las empresas vulnerables. Asimismo, la contracción del capital, el empleo y las ventas es mucho más grande en las empresas vulnerables que en las empresas zombis.This papers develops a taxonomy of financially distressed and zombie firms using a rich dataset that combines detailed firm-level and bank-firm level information in Spain. A distressed firm exhibits both cash-flow and balance-sheet insolvency whereas a zombie firm is a distressed company that has received new credit. We carry out several analyses to test the validity of these definitions. For instance, we find that being distressed is negatively correlated with the probability of receiving new credit. However, the main bank of a distressed firm is more reluctant to restrict the supply of credit to such firm than a bank with no previous exposure to the company, which may reflect the incentives of the former to engage in loan evergreening. This financial support contributes to keeping zombie firms afloat for a longer period than distressed firms. Moreover, the contraction in capital, employment and sales is much larger in distressed firms than in zombie firms

The Balance of Payments and International Investment Position of Spain in 2021

Artículo de revistaOn balance of payments statistics, in 2021 Spain’s net lending amounted to 1.8% of GDP (1.2% in 2020). This increase mainly reflected the partial recovery in the travel surplus, thanks to the improvement in the epidemiological situation prompted by the headway in vaccination, and the widening of the capital account surplus, boosted by the credits corresponding to Next Generation EU. This countered the deterioration in the goods deficit, against the backdrop of the rising energy bill. Meanwhile, Spain’s negative net international investment position decreased significantly (to 70.4% of GDP, its lowest level since 2006), thanks to the positive financial transactions with the rest of the world and, to a greater degree, GDP growth and the increase in value of external financial assets. Conversely, Spain’s gross external debt reached another all-time high (€2,329 billion) due to the assumption of new liabilities, particularly by general government and the Banco de España. However, it fell as a percentage of GDP thanks to economic growth

The balance of payments and international investment position of Spain in 2020

Artículo de revistaIn 2020, the Spanish economy recorded net lending of 1.1% of GDP, significantly below the previous year’s level of 2.5%. This decline essentially reflects the impact of the health crisis on travel credits, which contracted sharply, owing to the restrictions on international mobility and on activity in accommodation and food and travel services to contain the pandemic. The widening of the secondary income deficit also contributed to the decline in net lending, albeit to a much lesser extent. These developments offset the improvement in the other components, which was particularly notable in the goods and primary income balances. Cross-border financial transactions were strongly influenced by the increase in the volume of Eurosystem asset purchases, as reflected by a large surplus on the financial account of resident sectors, excluding the Banco de España. By contrast, the financial transactions of the Banco de España with the rest of the world showed a large increase in its liabilities. Spain’s negative net international investment position increased to 84.3% of GDP, essentially as a result of the sharp fall in GDP and the decline in the value of external financial assets owing to the appreciation of the euro. Finally, in terms of GDP, the nation’s gross external debt stood at all-time highs (199.4%) owing to the contraction in economic activity and the assumption of new liabilities, in particular by the Banco de España, given the increase in its positions vis-à-vis the Eurosystem as a result of the implementation of the asset purchase programmes

Evolución reciente de la financiación y del crédito bancario al sector privado no financiero: primer semestre de 2022

Artículo de revistaDurante la parte transcurrida de 2022 se ha producido un endurecimiento de las condiciones de financiación de las empresas y de los hogares, con un fuerte repunte de los costes de la emisión de deuda corporativa y una contracción de la oferta de préstamos. La transmisión de los tipos de interés de mercado a los del crédito bancario estaría siendo, sin embargo, algo más lenta que en otros episodios históricos de subidas de los tipos de interés. En este contexto, el flujo de nueva financiación captada por hogares y por empresas y el saldo vivo de su deuda han avanzado moderadamente o se han mantenido estables. El saldo de crédito concedido a las actividades empresariales no financieras por las entidades de depósito (ED) descendió en el primer trimestre de 2022, más que compensando la expansión del saldo de crédito para adquisición de vivienda, mientras que en abril y en mayo su comportamiento conjunto ha sido moderadamente expansivo. Desde el inicio de 2022, y pese al deterioro del entorno macrofinanciero, la calidad crediticia de la cartera de las ED ha continuado mejorando de forma general, excepto en el caso de la financiación destinada a las ramas de actividad más afectadas por la pandemia, y en el conjunto de las operaciones que cuentan con el aval del Instituto de Crédito Oficial. La materialización de escenarios macrofinancieros adversos podría suponer en los próximos trimestres un menor dinamismo del volumen de crédito bancario y un deterioro en su calidad

Fund raising in the international capital markets in 2021

This paper analyses the main trends in the private sector’s issuance activity in international capital markets during 2021, a year in which, despite positive developments that resulted in volumes above pre-2020 levels, the record 2020 figures were not achieved. Thus, the total issuance volume of debt securities declined due to lower issuance in the non-financial corporate sector, which may have been driven by the large amount of funds raised during 2020, lower funding needs for precautionary reasons in view of the improved health situation and higher funding costs. However, bond issuance by the banking sector and other financial institutions increased; this growth was concentrated in the United States, on expectations of monetary policy tightening in that area and regulatory factors. High-yield bond issuance also increased, benefiting from lower risk aversion. By region, the sharpest declines were in the United States, followed by the United Kingdom and the euro area. Conversely, issuance in the equity markets was strong and surpassed the 2020 figures

Trains of attosecond pulses structured with time-ordered polarization states

[EN]Ultrafast laser pulses generated at the attosecond timescale represent a unique tool to explore the fastest dynamics in matter. An accurate control of their properties, such as polarization, is fundamental to shape three-dimensional laser-driven dynamics. We introduce a technique to generate attosecond pulse trains whose polarization state varies from pulse to pulse. This is accomplished by driving high-harmonic generation with two time-delayed bichromatic counter-rotating fields with proper orbital angular momentum (OAM) content. Our simulations show that the evolution of the polarization state along the train can be controlled via OAM, pulse duration, and time delay of the driving fields. We, thus, introduce an additional control into structured attosecond pulses that provides an alternative route to explore ultrafast dynamics with potential applications in chiral and magnetic materials.Junta de Castilla y León (SA287P18); FEDER funds; Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (FIS2016-75652-P, RYC-2017-22745, PID2019-106910GBI00); Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte (FPU16/02591); EuropeanResearch Council (ERC) (851201); Barcelona Supercomputing Center (FI-2019-1-0013)

International capital markets during the COVID-19 crisis

Artículo de revistaThis article analyses the main trends in securities issuance activity on international markets in 2020, a year in which capital markets were very buoyant despite the COVID-19 crisis. In 2020, record figures were posted for issues on fixed-income markets globally, driven by the measures adopted by governments and central banks to smooth financing and foment market liquidity. In terms of sectors, issuance by the public sector and non-financial corporations increased, while there were declines in the banking sector. By region, increases in issuance volumes were across the board, with notably greater dynamism in the United States and the United Kingdom. Finally, as regards time horizon, there was a strong increase in the second quarter of the year, with record figures posted. This may have been due to the fact that many issuers attempted to bring forward their issues in that quarter given the enormous uncertainty over the course of the pandemic and future financing conditions. Equity market issues were also notably buoyant, with figures not recorded since 2009

La Balanza de pagos y la posición de inversión internacional de España en 2020

Artículo de revistaLa economía española presentó, en 2020, una capacidad de financiación del 1,1 % del PIB, sensiblemente inferior a la del año previo, cuando se situó en el 2,5 %. Este descenso reflejó, fundamentalmente, el impacto de la crisis sanitaria sobre los ingresos turísticos, que se contrajeron fuertemente, afectados por las restricciones a la movilidad internacional y a la actividad en los servicios de hostelería y turismo introducidas para contener la expansión de la pandemia. La ampliación del déficit de rentas secundarias también contribuyó al deterioro de la capacidad de financiación, aunque en mucha menor medida. Estos desarrollos contrarrestaron la mejora del resto de los componentes, que fue particularmente destacada en las balanzas de bienes y de rentas primarias. Por su parte, la evolución de las operaciones financieras con el exterior ha estado muy condicionada por el aumento del volumen de compras de activos del Eurosistema, que se ha reflejado en un elevado saldo positivo de la cuenta financiera de los sectores residentes, excluyendo el Banco de España. Por el contrario, las operaciones financieras de este último frente al resto del mundo reflejaron un abultado incremento de sus pasivos. El saldo deudor de la Posición de Inversión Internacional neta de España se incrementó hasta el 84,3 % del PIB, como resultado fundamentalmente de la intensa caída del PIB y de la disminución del valor de los activos financieros exteriores debido a la apreciación del euro. Por último, la deuda externa bruta de la nación se situó en máximos históricos en términos de PIB (199,4 %) debido a la contracción de la actividad económica y a la asunción de nuevos pasivos, particularmente por parte del Banco de España, en el contexto de un aumento de las posiciones de esta institución frente al Eurosistema, como resultado de la aplicación de sus programas de compras de activos