The Value Relevance of Sentiment

It is generally accepted that excessive exuberance or gloom in investor sentiment contributes to booms and crashes in share prices. However, views differ on the merits of active policy intervention due to gaps in our understanding of the transmission mechanism. To fill this gap we apply a fully ex ante valuation model in which an index of investor sentiment is included along with earnings and growth fundamentals to explain value. The outcome is a precise indication of the value relevance of sentiment. We employ the investor sentiment indicator proposed by Baker and Wurgler (2007). Valuation, and implied permanent growth, based on the inclusion of standard fundamentals is compared with that obtained when sentiment is added. The resulting ratio produces an index of ’the valuation effects of sentiment’ that can be assessed with statistical significance. Out-of-sample fit is also examined. For the Dow index the valuation effects of sentiment are significant and as large as 40% of market value at the peak of the ’dot-com’ bubble. The index we propose identifies conditions, detectable in advance and under the control of policy makers, that are conducive to the creation of asset bubbles. It is easy to construct, timely, robust and can be used improve our understanding of what leads to bubbles and crashes and to inform policy.Bubbles, fundamental valuation, sentiment, early warning indicators

Where the Jobs Are: Identification and Analysis of Local Employment Opportunities

A practitioner\u27s guide to local labor market analysis.https://research.upjohn.org/up_press/1127/thumbnail.jp

Information Cascades in the Adoption of New Technology

This work presents a theory of information cascades, based on the work of Bikhchandi, Hirschleifer, and Welch (1992), to explain fad-like behavior in the adoption of new technology. An information cascade occurs when an individual ignores his or her own private signal about the value of a technology and relies, instead, upon the observed actions of others. This can lead to serious problems if the observed actions in question are based on still other observed actions rather than private signals. The present research provides an operational model to assess information cascade theory and empirically tests the model in the context of the adoption of electronic commerce technologies. The results suggest that information cascades play a large role in the adoption of such technologies

Interactions of technology and society: Impacts of improved airtransport. A study of airports at the grass roots

The feasibility of applying a particular conception of technology and social change to specific examples of technological development was investigated. The social and economic effects of improved airport capabilities on rural communities were examined. Factors which led to the successful implementation of a plan to construct sixty small airports in Ohio are explored and implications derived for forming public policies, evaluating air transportation development, and assessing technology

Empirical Studies in International Entrepreneurial Finance

This dissertation consists of three empirical studies in entrepreneurial finance around the world. The first essay empirically compares the impact of entrepreneurship on GDP, unemployment, exports, and patents by examining three international datasets. The findings of this essay point to institutional and cultural impediments to the effectiveness of entrepreneurship around the world. The impact of entrepreneurship is significantly mitigated by excessively strong creditor rights that limit entrepreneurial risk taking. Furthermore, the data indicate that cultural attitudes associated with low risk taking limit the effectiveness of entrepreneurship. The results of this essay also show how different definitions of new business entry matter for empirical analysis of entrepreneurship across countries. The second essay documents angel investors investment behaviors and performances around the world as compared with private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) funds. Angel investors finance small high growth entrepreneurial firms in exchange for equity. Unlike PE/VC funds, which invest capital from institutional investors, angels invest their own money. We compare the impact from legal and cultural conditions on disintermediated angel finance versus intermediated PE/VC finance. The data indicate that, relative to PE/VC funds, angel investors are more sensitive to stock market conditions, legal environments, and Hofstedes cultural conditions. The data further indicate that investee firms funded by angels are less likely to successfully exit in either an IPO or acquisition, on average, whether those angels are involved in the first round or later stages. iii The third essay studies the different effects of legal and institutional factors on private equity divestment strategies of IPOs and acquisitions in the emerging markets. The data indicate that PE fund managers have a higher probability of successful exits in countries with better business and legal environments. We also find that PE investors are better able to mitigate the potential costs associated with inefficient and corrupt business environments to increase the probability of exits by IPOs in countries with higher levels of corruption. Moreover, our findings suggest that market shocks arguably concentrated in the developed markets result in a negative ripple effect as the probability of successful exits decreases for PE investors in emerging markets

The outlook for aeronautics, 1980 - 2000: Appendix B: Study group report on an industry-university-government survey

Results of a comprehensive survey of key representatives of the aeronautical community are presented. Emphasis is placed on trends in civil and military aviation, the role of NASA in aeronautical research and development, and the required technology advances for the development of new aircraft

Transforming U.S. Energy Innovation

The United States and the world need a revolution in energy technology—a revolution that would improve the performance of our energy systems to face the challenges ahead. A dramatic increase in the pace of energy innovation is crucial to meet the challenges of: • Energy and national security, to address the dangers of undue reliance on dwindling supplies of oil increasingly concentrated in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and to limit the connection between nuclear energy and the spread of nuclear weapons; • Environmental sustainability, to reduce the wide range of environmental damages due to energy production and use, from fine particulate emissions at coal plants, to oil spills, to global climate disruption; and • Economic competitiveness, to seize a significant share of the multi-trillion-dollar clean energy technology market and improve the balance of payments by increasing exports, while reducing the hundreds of billions of dollars spent every year on importing oil. In an intensely competitive and interdependent global landscape, and in the face of large climate risks from ongoing U.S. reliance on a fossil-fuel based energy system, it is important to maintain and expand long-term investments in the energy future of the U.S. even at a time of budget stringency. It is equally necessary to think about how to improve the efficiency of those investments, through strengthening U.S. energy innovation institutions, providing expanded incentives for private-sector innovation, and seizing opportunities where international cooperation can accelerate innovation. The private sector role is key: in the United States the vast majority of the energy system is owned by private enterprises, whose innovation and technology deployment decisions drive much of the country’s overall energy systems. Efficiently utilizing government investments in energy innovation requires understanding the market incentives that drive private firms to invest in advanced energy technologies, including policy stability and predictability. The U.S. government has already launched new efforts to accelerate energy innovation. In particular, the U.S. Department of Energy is undertaking a Quadrennial Technology Review to identify the most promising opportunities and provide increased coherence and stability. Our report offers analysis and recommendations designed to accelerate the pace at which better energy technologies are discovered, developed, and deployed, and is focused in four key areas: • Designing an expanded portfolio of federal investments in energy research, development, demonstration (ERD&D), and complementary policies to catalyze the deployment of novel energy technologies; • Increasing incentives for private-sector innovation and strengthening federal-private energy innovation partnerships; • Improving the management of energy innovation institutions to maximize the results of federal investments; and • Expanding and coordinating international energy innovation cooperation to bring ideas and resources together across the globe to address these global challenges

Project for the analysis of technology transfer Quarterly report, 13 Jul. - 12 Oct. 1968

Statistical characteristics of transfer data bank users, and outline of technology transfer and utilization instruction cours

Technical change in US industry: A cross-industry analysis

The nature of the public policies which have influenced the pace and pattern of technical progress in a number of American industries is studied with the view of assessing the broad effects of these policies. The industries studied are agriculture, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, computers, civil aircraft, automobiles and residential construction. The policies considered include research and development funding as well as government procurement, education, information dissemination, patent protection, licensing, regulations, and anti-trust policies

Digital futures: e-commerce and sustainable development.

This report comprises a critical commentary and appraisal of my DProf project "Digital Futures: e-commerce and sustainable development". It should be viewed alongside the evidence of achievement from the project. There are six items of evidence contained in the project folder alongside this report: i. A brochure produced for the project launch on 1 February 2000 2. "Mind over Matter" -a pamphlet by Charles Leadbeater published part-way through the project in September 2000 (Leadbeater. 2000) 3. "Dot-com ethics" -a pamphlet by James Wilsdon published part-way through the project in January 2001 (Wilsdon. 2001) 4. A brochure produced for the final project conference on 1 March 2001 5. A summary reportwhich draws out the cross-cutting conclusions and recommendations (Wilsdon & Miller. 2001) 6. "Digital Futures: living in a dot-com world"- a book containing the full research findings of the project (ed. Wilsdon. 2001) The overarching aim of the Digital Futures project was to investigate the complex web of issues surrounding e-commerce and sustainable development, and recommend ways in which government and business could maximise the sustainability benefits, and minimise the costs, of the emerging digital economy. The project drew together a consortium of government departments, companies, think-tanks and research organisations. Its formal activities ran from 1 October 1999 to i March 2001, and consisted of three main phases: Phase 1 (i October iQQQ- f1 January 2000) -A detailed scoping paper was prepared on the key issues relating to e-commercea nd sustainable development. -A consortium of think-tanks and research organisations was established to undertake research into the various aspects of the debate. -Fifteen corporate partners were recruited to support the project, and participate in the research process. -UK Government support and funding was obtained for Phases 2&3. Phase 2 (1 February- 15 September 2000) -Each of the eight research organisations was commissioned to produce a detailed paper on a particular theme. -Detailed research was carried out using a variety of methodological approaches (desk-based analysis, interviews, opinion polling etc.) -Project partners in government and business were actively involved in the research to ensure it reflected a diversity of views. Phase 3 (i6 September 2000 - 1 March 2001) -A series of workshops were held with project stakeholders, to discuss the research findings of Phase 2. -The eight research reports were edited into a book. -A summary report was written, drawing out the main conclusions and recommendations. -A one-day conference was held on 1 March 2001 for 200 decision-makers from government, business, academia and the voluntary sector. My role within the project was that of overall co-ordinator and editor of the book and summary report. I was also the lead researcher on one of the eight research themes. Whilst the project was underway, and in the year that has elapsed since its formal completion, I have been reflecting on the lessons learned. This report is a critical commentary based on that process of reflection. It consists of an introduction to the project, an outline of its aims, objectives and methodology, an account of the project's main activities, and full details of the project's results and conclusions. The main outcomes of the project were a book and summary report (see evidence of achievement), which offered the first comprehensive analysis of the relationship between e-commerce and sustainable development. The third significant outcome of the project was a one-day conference exploring these issues. The project also led to a range of follow-up research and practical activities, which are detailed in the final chapter. The final chapter also includes a reflection of the impact the project has had on my sphere of professional activity, and on myself as a researcher and practitioner