Customer churn prediction in telecom using machine learning and social network analysis in big data platform

Customer churn is a major problem and one of the most important concerns for large companies. Due to the direct effect on the revenues of the companies, especially in the telecom field, companies are seeking to develop means to predict potential customer to churn. Therefore, finding factors that increase customer churn is important to take necessary actions to reduce this churn. The main contribution of our work is to develop a churn prediction model which assists telecom operators to predict customers who are most likely subject to churn. The model developed in this work uses machine learning techniques on big data platform and builds a new way of features' engineering and selection. In order to measure the performance of the model, the Area Under Curve (AUC) standard measure is adopted, and the AUC value obtained is 93.3%. Another main contribution is to use customer social network in the prediction model by extracting Social Network Analysis (SNA) features. The use of SNA enhanced the performance of the model from 84 to 93.3% against AUC standard. The model was prepared and tested through Spark environment by working on a large dataset created by transforming big raw data provided by SyriaTel telecom company. The dataset contained all customers' information over 9 months, and was used to train, test, and evaluate the system at SyriaTel. The model experimented four algorithms: Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Machine Tree "GBM" and Extreme Gradient Boosting "XGBOOST". However, the best results were obtained by applying XGBOOST algorithm. This algorithm was used for classification in this churn predictive model.Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures. PDF https://rdcu.be/budK

Large-Scale information extraction from textual definitions through deep syntactic and semantic analysis

We present DEFIE, an approach to large-scale Information Extraction (IE) based on a syntactic-semantic analysis of textual definitions. Given a large corpus of definitions we leverage syntactic dependencies to reduce data sparsity, then disambiguate the arguments and content words of the relation strings, and finally exploit the resulting information to organize the acquired relations hierarchically. The output of DEFIE is a high-quality knowledge base consisting of several million automatically acquired semantic relations

The Economics of Knowledge Regulation: An Empirical Analysis of Knowledge Flows

Successful innovation depends on the management of a firm’s knowledge base. This paper empirically investigates the determinants of knowledge regulation. Using a unique survey dataset, the analysis suggests that R&D managers do not leak knowledge randomly, but rather regulate knowledge consciously. We find that the source and the channel of knowledge inflows impact knowledge regulation. The findings reveal that the more a firm profits from knowledge inflows from competitors, the fewer actions it takes to regulate outgoing knowledge. We do not find that the extent of knowledge inflows from collaborating firms impacts knowledge regulation. However, the type of channel being used to acquire knowledge matters. Compared to public channels, the different types of private channels used to access knowledge inflow and the type of the competitive relationship influence the firms’ decision to regulate knowledge outflow in the following way: concerning relationships with competitors, firms regulate knowledge outflow more when using formal channels, but less when using informal channels (although a significant difference is not found with the latter); concerning collaborative relationships, firms regulate knowledge outflow less regardless of whether they are using formal or informal private channels compared to using public channels. Presumably firms that acquire knowledge from competing firms through formal private channels compared to public channels, try to establish opaque and soundproof fences to surround them, whereas firms that acquire knowledge from collaborating firms through formal or informal private channels do not want to restrict circulation, but rather facilitate inter-firm knowledge exchange. Our results have important implications for academics and R&D managers alike

Modeling Adoption and Usage of Competing Products

The emergence and wide-spread use of online social networks has led to a dramatic increase on the availability of social activity data. Importantly, this data can be exploited to investigate, at a microscopic level, some of the problems that have captured the attention of economists, marketers and sociologists for decades, such as, e.g., product adoption, usage and competition. In this paper, we propose a continuous-time probabilistic model, based on temporal point processes, for the adoption and frequency of use of competing products, where the frequency of use of one product can be modulated by those of others. This model allows us to efficiently simulate the adoption and recurrent usages of competing products, and generate traces in which we can easily recognize the effect of social influence, recency and competition. We then develop an inference method to efficiently fit the model parameters by solving a convex program. The problem decouples into a collection of smaller subproblems, thus scaling easily to networks with hundred of thousands of nodes. We validate our model over synthetic and real diffusion data gathered from Twitter, and show that the proposed model does not only provides a good fit to the data and more accurate predictions than alternatives but also provides interpretable model parameters, which allow us to gain insights into some of the factors driving product adoption and frequency of use

Detecting Cohesive and 2-mode Communities in Directed and Undirected Networks

Networks are a general language for representing relational information among objects. An effective way to model, reason about, and summarize networks, is to discover sets of nodes with common connectivity patterns. Such sets are commonly referred to as network communities. Research on network community detection has predominantly focused on identifying communities of densely connected nodes in undirected networks. In this paper we develop a novel overlapping community detection method that scales to networks of millions of nodes and edges and advances research along two dimensions: the connectivity structure of communities, and the use of edge directedness for community detection. First, we extend traditional definitions of network communities by building on the observation that nodes can be densely interlinked in two different ways: In cohesive communities nodes link to each other, while in 2-mode communities nodes link in a bipartite fashion, where links predominate between the two partitions rather than inside them. Our method successfully detects both 2-mode as well as cohesive communities, that may also overlap or be hierarchically nested. Second, while most existing community detection methods treat directed edges as though they were undirected, our method accounts for edge directions and is able to identify novel and meaningful community structures in both directed and undirected networks, using data from social, biological, and ecological domains.Comment: Published in the proceedings of WSDM '1

Automatic domain ontology extraction for context-sensitive opinion mining

Automated analysis of the sentiments presented in online consumer feedbacks can facilitate both organizations’ business strategy development and individual consumers’ comparison shopping. Nevertheless, existing opinion mining methods either adopt a context-free sentiment classification approach or rely on a large number of manually annotated training examples to perform context sensitive sentiment classification. Guided by the design science research methodology, we illustrate the design, development, and evaluation of a novel fuzzy domain ontology based contextsensitive opinion mining system. Our novel ontology extraction mechanism underpinned by a variant of Kullback-Leibler divergence can automatically acquire contextual sentiment knowledge across various product domains to improve the sentiment analysis processes. Evaluated based on a benchmark dataset and real consumer reviews collected from Amazon.com, our system shows remarkable performance improvement over the context-free baseline

Collaborative Summarization of Topic-Related Videos

Large collections of videos are grouped into clusters by a topic keyword, such as Eiffel Tower or Surfing, with many important visual concepts repeating across them. Such a topically close set of videos have mutual influence on each other, which could be used to summarize one of them by exploiting information from others in the set. We build on this intuition to develop a novel approach to extract a summary that simultaneously captures both important particularities arising in the given video, as well as, generalities identified from the set of videos. The topic-related videos provide visual context to identify the important parts of the video being summarized. We achieve this by developing a collaborative sparse optimization method which can be efficiently solved by a half-quadratic minimization algorithm. Our work builds upon the idea of collaborative techniques from information retrieval and natural language processing, which typically use the attributes of other similar objects to predict the attribute of a given object. Experiments on two challenging and diverse datasets well demonstrate the efficacy of our approach over state-of-the-art methods.Comment: CVPR 201

Finding groups in data: Cluster analysis with ants

Wepresent in this paper a modification of Lumer and Faieta’s algorithm for data clustering. This approach mimics the clustering behavior observed in real ant colonies. This algorithm discovers automatically clusters in numerical data without prior knowledge of possible number of clusters. In this paper we focus on ant-based clustering algorithms, a particular kind of a swarm intelligent system, and on the effects on the final clustering by using during the classification differentmetrics of dissimilarity: Euclidean, Cosine, and Gower measures. Clustering with swarm-based algorithms is emerging as an alternative to more conventional clustering methods, such as e.g. k-means, etc. Among the many bio-inspired techniques, ant clustering algorithms have received special attention, especially because they still require much investigation to improve performance, stability and other key features that would make such algorithms mature tools for data mining. As a case study, this paper focus on the behavior of clustering procedures in those new approaches. The proposed algorithm and its modifications are evaluated in a number of well-known benchmark datasets. Empirical results clearly show that ant-based clustering algorithms performs well when compared to another techniques