Multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern Black Sea

The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and among wave-storm components.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Toward sustainable management: 2D modelling of a self-cleaning system to improve geometry in front of the flushing gate

This paper aims to show how numerical modelling based on 2D SWE can be used to analyze the cleaning effectiveness of flushing waves in storm tanks. The case study under consideration is an existing storm tank located in Badalona, a municipality of Barcelona, Spain. Storm tank cleaning systems are critical features that must be carefully addressed. If not appropriately addressed, operation and maintenance work costs can drastically increase. There are numerous currently available technologies for cleaning storage tanks. However, no specific guide on this field has been identified. References are provided by the manufacturers through their commercial catalogues. Generally, this information is not based on experimental or numerical experiences or results have not been published in the literature of scientific papers. In this study, a public domain software (IBER) was used to develop 2D hydraulic analysis of the selected tank. The results obtained show how the phenomenon of recirculation is acting in some areas of the lane. This implies a dissipation of energy, thus causing difficulties in terms of cleaning procedures. Furthermore, two new scenarios have been tested to determine how a different lane width might affect hydrodynamic behavior. A newly suggested geometry for the existing lane of the tank is proposed by using the numerical modeling software. The proposed geometry in the current pilot tank achieves higher velocities and avoids recirculation areas. The results demonstrate that numerical modelling of these types of processes is possible with the computer models available (commercial codes) and can be used to optimize cleaning system designPeer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Multivariate statistical modelling of future marine storms

Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two aspects have been here addressed through generalized Pareto distributions and hierarchical Archimedean copulas. A non-stationary model has been used to highlight the relationship between these extreme events and non-stationary climate. It has been applied to a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Climate-Change scenario, for a fetch-limited environment (Catalan Coast). In the non-stationary model, all considered variables decrease in time, except for storm-duration at the northern part of the Catalan Coast. The joint distribution of storm variables presents cyclical fluctuations, with a stronger influence of climate dynamics than of climate itself.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Chorus acceleration of radiation belt relativistic electrons during March 2013 geomagnetic storm

Abstract The recent launching of Van Allen probes provides an unprecedent opportunity to investigate variations of the radiation belt relativistic electrons. During the 17-19 March 2013 storm, the Van Allen probes simultaneously detected strong chorus waves and substantial increases in fluxes of relativistic (2 - 4.5 MeV) electrons around L = 4.5. Chorus waves occurred within the lower band 0.1-0.5fce (theelectron equatorial gyrofrequency), with a peak spectral density ∼10-4 nT 2/Hz. Correspondingly, relativistic electron fluxes increased by a factor of 102-103 during the recovery phase compared to the main phase levels. By means of a Gaussian fit to the observed chorus spectra, the drift and bounce-averaged diffusion coefficients are calculated and then used to solve a 2-D Fokker-Planck diffusion equation. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the lower-band chorus waves indeed produce such huge enhancements in relativistic electron fluxes within 15 h, fitting well with the observation. Key Points Initial RBSP correlated data of chorus waves and relativistic electron fluxes A realistic simulation to examine effect of chorus on relativistic electron flux Chorus yields huge increases inelectron flux rapidly, consistent with data

Preliminary comparison of natural versus model-predicted recovery of vessel-generated seagrass injuries in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Each year, more than 500 motorized vessel groundings cause widespread damage to seagrasses in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Under Section 312 of the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA), any party responsible for the loss, injury, or destruction of any Sanctuary resource, including seagrass, is liable to the United States for response costs and resulting damages. As part of the damage assessment process, a cellular automata model is utilized to forecast seagrass recovery rates. Field validation of these forecasts was accomplished by comparing model-predicted percent recovery to that which was observed to be occurring naturally for 30 documented vessel grounding sites. Model recovery forecasts for both Thalassia testudinum and Syringodium filiforme exceeded natural recovery estimates for 93.1% and 89.5% of the sites, respectively. For Halodule wrightii, the number of over- and under-predictions by the model was similar. However, where under-estimation occurred, it was often severe, reflecting the well-known extraordinary growth potential of this opportunistic species. These preliminary findings indicate that the recovery model is consistently generous to Responsible Parties in that the model forecasts a much faster recovery than was observed to occur naturally, particularly for T. testudinum, the dominant seagrass species in the region and the species most often affected. Environmental setting (i.e., location, wave exposure) influences local seagrass landscape pattern and may also play a role in the recovery dynamics for a particular injury site. An examination of the relationship between selected environmental factors and injury recovery dynamics is currently underway. (PDF file contains 20 pages.

Depositional processes and stratigraphic evolution of the Campanian deltaic system of La Anita Formation, Austral-Magallanes Basin, Patagonia, Argentina

Coastal depositional systems are commonly classified in terms of the relative interaction of wave, tide and fluvial processes. The La Anita Formation represents the opportunity to study and better understand coastal sedimentary systems. It is a poorly studied prograding siliciclastic deltaic-coastal wedge accumulated in the Campanian during the foreland stage of the Austral-Magallanes Basin. A detailed depositional process-based facies analysis have allowed the definition of 13 sedimentary facies and 9 facies associations for the La Anita Formation, ranging from prodelta to interdistributary delta-channel deposits. According to the spatial distribution of these facies associations, the La Anita Formation was divided into two informal units bounded by a regional erosion surface. The lower unit shows abundant hummocky cross-bedded and bioturbated sandstones, coarseningupward trends and mainly aggradational to progradational vertical stacking pattern, and it was interpreted as a wave-dominated fluvial-influenced delta. The upper unit is characterized by unidirectional dune cross-bedding, coarseningupward trend and a progradational vertical stacking pattern, and was interpreted as a fluvio-dominated delta with no evidence of tide or wave influence. These two units represent two genetically unrelated depositional sequences bounded by a regional erosion surface, which is interpreted as a sequence boundary triggered by a relative sea-level fall. The lower unit is part of a progradational highstand systems tract which involves the underlying deep-marine Alta Vista Formation. The upper unit deposits reflect a complete relative sea-level cycle which includes an undifferentiated lowstand and transgressive systems tracts and, toward the top, highstand systems tract.Fil: Moyano Paz, Damián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas; ArgentinaFil: Tettamanti, Camila. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas; ArgentinaFil: Varela, Augusto Nicolás. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas; ArgentinaFil: Cereceda, Abril. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas; ArgentinaFil: Poire, Daniel Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas; Argentin

Modeling inward diffusion and slow decay of energetic electrons in the Earth\u27s outer radiation belt

Abstract A new 3-D diffusion code is used to investigate the inward intrusion and slow decay of energetic radiation belt electrons (\u3e0.5 MeV) observed by the Van Allen Probes during a 10 day quiet period on March 2013. During the inward transport, the peak differential electron fluxes decreased by approximately an order of magnitude at various energies. Our 3-D radiation belt simulation including radial diffusion and pitch angle and energy diffusion by plasmaspheric hiss and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves reproduces the essential features of the observed electron flux evolution. The decay time scales and the pitch angle distributions in our simulation are consistent with the Van Allen Probe observations over multiple energy channels. Our study suggests that the quiet time energetic electron dynamics are effectively controlled by inward radial diffusion and pitch angle scattering due to a combination of plasmaspheric hiss and EMIC waves in the Earth\u27s radiation belts

Wave-induced loss of ultra-relativistic electrons in the Van Allen radiation belts.

The dipole configuration of the Earth's magnetic field allows for the trapping of highly energetic particles, which form the radiation belts. Although significant advances have been made in understanding the acceleration mechanisms in the radiation belts, the loss processes remain poorly understood. Unique observations on 17 January 2013 provide detailed information throughout the belts on the energy spectrum and pitch angle (angle between the velocity of a particle and the magnetic field) distribution of electrons up to ultra-relativistic energies. Here we show that although relativistic electrons are enhanced, ultra-relativistic electrons become depleted and distributions of particles show very clear telltale signatures of electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave-induced loss. Comparisons between observations and modelling of the evolution of the electron flux and pitch angle show that electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves provide the dominant loss mechanism at ultra-relativistic energies and produce a profound dropout of the ultra-relativistic radiation belt fluxes