Tsunami And Storm Surge Modeling In Bay Of Bengal [GC220.4.B43 C442 2007 f rb].

Kemusnahan yang disebabkan oleh Andaman tsunami pada 26 Disember 2004 merupakan masalah utama komuniti di seluruh dunia. Pelbagai usaha telah diambil untuk mengurangkan impak yang disebabkan oleh tsunami yang mungkin berlaku pada masa hadapan. Destruction due to 26 December 2004 Andaman tsunami has become a major concern to the communities around the world. Several efforts have been undertaken to minimize the potential impacts of future tsunamis

NASA Global Satellite and Model Data Products and Services for Tropical Cyclone Research

The lack of observations over vast tropical oceans is a major challenge for tropical cyclone research. Satellite observations and model reanalysis data play an important role in filling these gaps. Established in the mid-1980s, the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), as one of the 12 NASA data centers, archives and distributes data from several Earth science disciplines such as precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric composition, and hydrology, including well-known NASA satellite missions (e.g., TRMM, GPM) and model assimilation projects (MERRA-2). Acquiring datasets suitable for tropical cyclone research in a large data archive is a challenge for many, especially for those who are not familiar with satellite or model data. Over the years, the GES DISC has developed user-friendly data services. For example, Giovanni is an online visualization and analysis tool, allowing users to visualize and analyze over 2000 satellite- and model-based variables with a Web browser, without downloading data and software. In this chapter, we will describe data and services at the GES DISC with emphasis on tropical cyclone research. We will also present two case studies and discuss future plans

Study of Climate Variability Patterns at Different Scales – A Complex Network Approach

Das Klimasystem der Erde besteht aus zahlreichen interagierenden Teilsystemen, die sich über verschiedene Zeitskalen hinweg verändern, was zu einer äußerst komplizierten räumlich-zeitlichen Klimavariabilität führt. Das Verständnis von Prozessen, die auf verschiedenen räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen ablaufen, ist ein entscheidender Aspekt bei der numerischen Wettervorhersage. Die Variabilität des Klimas, ein sich selbst konstituierendes System, scheint in Mustern auf großen Skalen organisiert zu sein. Die Verwendung von Klimanetzwerken hat sich als erfolgreicher Ansatz für die Erkennung der räumlichen Ausbreitung dieser großräumigen Muster in der Variabilität des Klimasystems erwiesen. In dieser Arbeit wird mit Hilfe von Klimanetzwerken gezeigt, dass die Klimavariabilität nicht nur auf größeren Skalen (Asiatischer Sommermonsun, El Niño/Southern Oscillation), sondern auch auf kleineren Skalen, z.B. auf Wetterzeitskalen, in Mustern organisiert ist. Dies findet Anwendung bei der Erkennung einzelner tropischer Wirbelstürme, bei der Charakterisierung binärer Wirbelsturm-Interaktionen, die zu einer vollständigen Verschmelzung führen, und bei der Untersuchung der intrasaisonalen und interannuellen Variabilität des Asiatischen Sommermonsuns. Schließlich wird die Anwendbarkeit von Klimanetzwerken zur Analyse von Vorhersagefehlern demonstriert, was für die Verbesserung von Vorhersagen von immenser Bedeutung ist. Da korrelierte Fehler durch vorhersagbare Beziehungen zwischen Fehlern verschiedener Regionen aufgrund von zugrunde liegenden systematischen oder zufälligen Prozessen auftreten können, wird gezeigt, dass Fehler-Netzwerke helfen können, die räumlich kohärenten Strukturen von Vorhersagefehlern zu untersuchen. Die Analyse der Fehler-Netzwerk-Topologie von Klimavariablen liefert ein erstes Verständnis der vorherrschenden Fehlerquelle und veranschaulicht das Potenzial von Klimanetzwerken als vielversprechendes Diagnoseinstrument zur Untersuchung von Fehlerkorrelationen.The Earth’s climate system consists of numerous interacting subsystems varying over a multitude of time scales giving rise to highly complicated spatio-temporal climate variability. Understanding processes occurring at different scales, both spatial and temporal, has been a very crucial problem in numerical weather prediction. The variability of climate, a self-constituting system, appears to be organized in patterns on large scales. The climate networks approach has been very successful in detecting the spatial propagation of these large scale patterns of variability in the climate system. In this thesis, it is demonstrated using climate network approach that climate variability is organized in patterns not only at larger scales (Asian Summer Monsoon, El Niño-Southern Oscillation) but also at shorter scales, e.g., weather time scales. This finds application in detecting individual tropical cyclones, characterizing binary cyclone interaction leading to a complete merger, and studying the intraseasonal and interannual variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon. Finally, the applicability of the climate network framework to understand forecast error properties is demonstrated, which is crucial for improvement of forecasts. As correlated errors can arise due to the presence of a predictable relationship between errors of different regions because of some underlying systematic or random process, it is shown that error networks can help to analyze the spatially coherent structures of forecast errors. The analysis of the error network topology of a climate variable provides a preliminary understanding of the dominant source of error, which shows the potential of climate networks as a very promising diagnostic tool to study error correlations

Development of a geovisual analytics environment using parallel coordinates with applications to tropical cyclone trend analysis

A global transformation is being fueled by unprecedented growth in the quality, quantity, and number of different parameters in environmental data through the convergence of several technological advances in data collection and modeling. Although these data hold great potential for helping us understand many complex and, in some cases, life-threatening environmental processes, our ability to generate such data is far outpacing our ability to analyze it. In particular, conventional environmental data analysis tools are inadequate for coping with the size and complexity of these data. As a result, users are forced to reduce the problem in order to adapt to the capabilities of the tools. To overcome these limitations, we must complement the power of computational methods with human knowledge, flexible thinking, imagination, and our capacity for insight by developing visual analysis tools that distill information into the actionable criteria needed for enhanced decision support. In light of said challenges, we have integrated automated statistical analysis capabilities with a highly interactive, multivariate visualization interface to produce a promising approach for visual environmental data analysis. By combining advanced interaction techniques such as dynamic axis scaling, conjunctive parallel coordinates, statistical indicators, and aerial perspective shading, we provide an enhanced variant of the classical parallel coordinates plot. Furthermore, the system facilitates statistical processes such as stepwise linear regression and correlation analysis to assist in the identification and quantification of the most significant predictors for a particular dependent variable. These capabilities are combined into a unique geovisual analytics system that is demonstrated via a pedagogical case study and three North Atlantic tropical cyclone climate studies using a systematic workflow. In addition to revealing several significant associations between environmental observations and tropical cyclone activity, this research corroborates the notion that enhanced parallel coordinates coupled with statistical analysis can be used for more effective knowledge discovery and confirmation in complex, real-world data sets

Development of a geovisual analytics environment using parallel coordinates with applications to tropical cyclone trend analysis

A global transformation is being fueled by unprecedented growth in the quality, quantity, and number of different parameters in environmental data through the convergence of several technological advances in data collection and modeling. Although these data hold great potential for helping us understand many complex and, in some cases, life-threatening environmental processes, our ability to generate such data is far outpacing our ability to analyze it. In particular, conventional environmental data analysis tools are inadequate for coping with the size and complexity of these data. As a result, users are forced to reduce the problem in order to adapt to the capabilities of the tools. To overcome these limitations, we must complement the power of computational methods with human knowledge, flexible thinking, imagination, and our capacity for insight by developing visual analysis tools that distill information into the actionable criteria needed for enhanced decision support. In light of said challenges, we have integrated automated statistical analysis capabilities with a highly interactive, multivariate visualization interface to produce a promising approach for visual environmental data analysis. By combining advanced interaction techniques such as dynamic axis scaling, conjunctive parallel coordinates, statistical indicators, and aerial perspective shading, we provide an enhanced variant of the classical parallel coordinates plot. Furthermore, the system facilitates statistical processes such as stepwise linear regression and correlation analysis to assist in the identification and quantification of the most significant predictors for a particular dependent variable. These capabilities are combined into a unique geovisual analytics system that is demonstrated via a pedagogical case study and three North Atlantic tropical cyclone climate studies using a systematic workflow. In addition to revealing several significant associations between environmental observations and tropical cyclone activity, this research corroborates the notion that enhanced parallel coordinates coupled with statistical analysis can be used for more effective knowledge discovery and confirmation in complex, real-world data sets

Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes

CIRA annual report FY 2014/2015

Reporting period July 1, 2014-March 31, 2015

The Response Of A General Circulation Climate Model Tohigh Latitude Freshwater Forcing In The Atlantic Basinwith Respect Totropi

The current cycle of climate change along with increases in hurricane activity, changing precipitation patterns, glacial melt, and other extremes of weather has led to interest and research into the global correlation or teleconnection between these events. Examination of historical climate records, proxies and observations is leading to formulation of hypotheses of climate dynamics with modeling and simulation being used to test these hypotheses as well as making projections. Ocean currents are believed to be an important factor in climate change with thermohaline circulation (THC) fluctuations being implicated in past cycles of abrupt change. Freshwater water discharge into high-latitude oceans attributed to changing precipitation patterns and glacial melt, particularly the North Atlantic, has also been associated with historical abrupt climate changes and is believed to have inhibited or shut down the THC overturning mechanism by diluting saline surface waters transported from the tropics. Here we analyze outputs of general circulation model (GCM) simulations parameterized by different levels of freshwater flux (no flux (control), 0.1 Sverdrup (Sv) and 1.0 Sv) with respect to tropical cyclone-like vortices (TCLVs) to determine any trend in simulated tropical storm frequency, duration, and location relative to flux level, as well as considering the applicability of using GCMs for tropical weather research. Increasing flux levels produced fewer storms and storm days, increased storm duration, a southerly and westerly shift (more pronounced for the 0.1 Sv level) in geographic distribution and increased activity near the African coast (more pronounced for the 1.0 Sv level). Storm intensities and tracks were not realistic compared to observational (real-life) values and is attributed to the GCM resolution not being fine enough to realistically simulate storm (microscale) dynamics

CIRA annual report FY 2016/2017

Reporting period April 1, 2016-March 31, 2017