Controlled exploration of chemical space by machine learning of coarse-grained representations

The size of chemical compound space is too large to be probed exhaustively. This leads high-throughput protocols to drastically subsample and results in sparse and non-uniform datasets. Rather than arbitrarily selecting compounds, we systematically explore chemical space according to the target property of interest. We first perform importance sampling by introducing a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme across compounds. We then train an ML model on the sampled data to expand the region of chemical space probed. Our boosting procedure enhances the number of compounds by a factor 2 to 10, enabled by the ML model's coarse-grained representation, which both simplifies the structure-property relationship and reduces the size of chemical space. The ML model correctly recovers linear relationships between transfer free energies. These linear relationships correspond to features that are global to the dataset, marking the region of chemical space up to which predictions are reliable---a more robust alternative to the predictive variance. Bridging coarse-grained simulations with ML gives rise to an unprecedented database of drug-membrane insertion free energies for 1.3 million compounds.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Impact of variance components on reliability of absolute quantification using digital PCR

Background: Digital polymerase chain reaction (dPCR) is an increasingly popular technology for detecting and quantifying target nucleic acids. Its advertised strength is high precision absolute quantification without needing reference curves. The standard data analytic approach follows a seemingly straightforward theoretical framework but ignores sources of variation in the data generating process. These stem from both technical and biological factors, where we distinguish features that are 1) hard-wired in the equipment, 2) user-dependent and 3) provided by manufacturers but may be adapted by the user. The impact of the corresponding variance components on the accuracy and precision of target concentration estimators presented in the literature is studied through simulation. Results: We reveal how system-specific technical factors influence accuracy as well as precision of concentration estimates. We find that a well-chosen sample dilution level and modifiable settings such as the fluorescence cut-off for target copy detection have a substantial impact on reliability and can be adapted to the sample analysed in ways that matter. User-dependent technical variation, including pipette inaccuracy and specific sources of sample heterogeneity, leads to a steep increase in uncertainty of estimated concentrations. Users can discover this through replicate experiments and derived variance estimation. Finally, the detection performance can be improved by optimizing the fluorescence intensity cut point as suboptimal thresholds reduce the accuracy of concentration estimates considerably. Conclusions: Like any other technology, dPCR is subject to variation induced by natural perturbations, systematic settings as well as user-dependent protocols. Corresponding uncertainty may be controlled with an adapted experimental design. Our findings point to modifiable key sources of uncertainty that form an important starting point for the development of guidelines on dPCR design and data analysis with correct precision bounds. Besides clever choices of sample dilution levels, experiment-specific tuning of machine settings can greatly improve results. Well-chosen data-driven fluorescence intensity thresholds in particular result in major improvements in target presence detection. We call on manufacturers to provide sufficiently detailed output data that allows users to maximize the potential of the method in their setting and obtain high precision and accuracy for their experiments

Penalized Clustering of Large Scale Functional Data with Multiple Covariates

In this article, we propose a penalized clustering method for large scale data with multiple covariates through a functional data approach. In the proposed method, responses and covariates are linked together through nonparametric multivariate functions (fixed effects), which have great flexibility in modeling a variety of function features, such as jump points, branching, and periodicity. Functional ANOVA is employed to further decompose multivariate functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space and provide associated notions of main effect and interaction. Parsimonious random effects are used to capture various correlation structures. The mixed-effect models are nested under a general mixture model, in which the heterogeneity of functional data is characterized. We propose a penalized Henderson's likelihood approach for model-fitting and design a rejection-controlled EM algorithm for the estimation. Our method selects smoothing parameters through generalized cross-validation. Furthermore, the Bayesian confidence intervals are used to measure the clustering uncertainty. Simulation studies and real-data examples are presented to investigate the empirical performance of the proposed method. Open-source code is available in the R package MFDA

Fast simulation of the leaky bucket algorithm

We use fast simulation methods, based on importance sampling, to efficiently estimate cell loss probability in queueing models of the Leaky Bucket algorithm. One of these models was introduced by Berger (1991), in which the rare event of a cell loss is related to the rare event of an empty finite buffer in an "overloaded" queue. In particular, we propose a heuristic change of measure for importance sampling to efficiently estimate the probability of the rare empty-buffer event in an asymptotically unstable GI/GI/1/k queue. This change of measure is, in a way, "dual" to that proposed by Parekh and Walrand (1989) to estimate the probability of a rare buffer overflow event. We present empirical results to demonstrate the effectiveness of our fast simulation method. Since we have not yet obtained a mathematical proof, we can only conjecture that our heuristic is asymptotically optimal, as k/spl rarr//spl infin/

Probabilistic methods in the analysis of protein interaction networks

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Statistical modelling of transcript profiles of differentially regulated genes

Background: The vast quantities of gene expression profiling data produced in microarray studies, and the more precise quantitative PCR, are often not statistically analysed to their full potential. Previous studies have summarised gene expression profiles using simple descriptive statistics, basic analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the clustering of genes based on simple models fitted to their expression profiles over time. We report the novel application of statistical non-linear regression modelling techniques to describe the shapes of expression profiles for the fungus Agaricus bisporus, quantified by PCR, and for E. coli and Rattus norvegicus, using microarray technology. The use of parametric non-linear regression models provides a more precise description of expression profiles, reducing the "noise" of the raw data to produce a clear "signal" given by the fitted curve, and describing each profile with a small number of biologically interpretable parameters. This approach then allows the direct comparison and clustering of the shapes of response patterns between genes and potentially enables a greater exploration and interpretation of the biological processes driving gene expression. Results: Quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR-derived time-course data of genes were modelled. "Splitline" or "broken-stick" regression identified the initial time of gene up-regulation, enabling the classification of genes into those with primary and secondary responses. Five-day profiles were modelled using the biologically-oriented, critical exponential curve, y(t) = A + (B + Ct)Rt + ε. This non-linear regression approach allowed the expression patterns for different genes to be compared in terms of curve shape, time of maximal transcript level and the decline and asymptotic response levels. Three distinct regulatory patterns were identified for the five genes studied. Applying the regression modelling approach to microarray-derived time course data allowed 11% of the Escherichia coli features to be fitted by an exponential function, and 25% of the Rattus norvegicus features could be described by the critical exponential model, all with statistical significance of p < 0.05. Conclusion: The statistical non-linear regression approaches presented in this study provide detailed biologically oriented descriptions of individual gene expression profiles, using biologically variable data to generate a set of defining parameters. These approaches have application to the modelling and greater interpretation of profiles obtained across a wide range of platforms, such as microarrays. Through careful choice of appropriate model forms, such statistical regression approaches allow an improved comparison of gene expression profiles, and may provide an approach for the greater understanding of common regulatory mechanisms between genes

Multi-variate time-series for time constraint adherence prediction in complex job shops

One of the most complex and agile production environments is semiconductor manufacturing, especially wafer fabrication, as products require more than several hundred operations and remain in Work-In-Progress for months leading to complex job shops. Additionally, an increasingly competitive market environment, i.e. owing to Moore’s law, forces semiconductor companies to focus on operational excellence, resiliency and, hence, leads to product quality as a decisive factor. Product-specific time constraints comprising two or more, not necessarily consecutive, operations ensure product quality at an operational level and, thus, are an industry-specific challenge. Time constraint adherence is of utmost importance, since violations typically lead to scrapping entire lots and a deteriorating yield. Dispatching decisions that determine time constraint adherence are as a state of the art performed manually, which is stressful and error-prone. Therefore, this article presents a data-driven approach combining multi-variate time-series with centralized information to predict time constraint adherence probability in wafer fabrication to facilitate dispatching. Real-world data is analyzed and different statistical and machine learning models are evaluated