Stochastic and epistemic uncertainty propagation in LCA

Purpose: When performing uncertainty propagation, most LCA practitioners choose to represent uncertainties by single probability distributions and to propagate them using stochastic methods. However the selection of single probability distributions appears often arbitrary when faced with scarce information or expert judgement (epistemic uncertainty). Possibility theory has been developed over the last decades to address this problem. The objective of this study is to present a methodology that combines probability and possibility theories to represent stochastic and epistemic uncertainties in a consistent manner and apply it to LCA. A case study is used to show the uncertainty propagation performed with the proposed method and compare it to propagation performed using probability and possibility theories alone. Methods: Basic knowledge on the probability theory is first recalled, followed by a detailed description of hal-00811827, version 1- 11 Apr 2013 epistemic uncertainty representation using fuzzy intervals. The propagation methods used are the Monte Carlo analysis for probability distribution and an optimisation on alpha-cuts for fuzzy intervals. The proposed method (noted IRS) generalizes the process of random sampling to probability distributions as well as fuzzy intervals, thus making the simultaneous use of both representations possible

Development of a decision support system for decision-based part/fixture assignment and fixture flow control.

Doctoral Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.An intense competition in a dynamic situation has increased the requirements that must be considered in the current manufacturing systems. Among those factors, fixtures are one of the major problematic components. The cost of fixture design and manufacture contributes to 10-20% of production costs. Manufacturing firms usually use traditional methods for part/fixture assignment works. These methods are highly resource consuming and cumbersome to enumerate the available fixtures and stabilise the number of fixtures required in a system. The aim of this study was to research and develop a Decision Support System (DSS), which was useful to perform a decision-based part/fixture assignment and fixture flow control during planned production periods. The DSS was designed to assist its users to reuse/adapt the retrieved fixtures or manufacture new fixtures depending upon the state of the retrieved fixtures and the similarities between the current and retrieved cases. This DSS combined Case-Based Reasoning (CBR), fuzzy set theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) techniques. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) component of the DSS immensely used a fuzzy CBR system combined with the fuzzy AHP and guiding rules from general domain knowledge. The fuzzy CBR was used to represent the uncertain and imprecise values of case attributes. The fuzzy AHP was applied to elicit domain knowledge from experts to prioritise case attributes. New part orders and training samples were represented as new and prior cases respectively using an Object-Oriented (OO) method for case retrieval and decision proposal. Popular fuzzy ranking and similarity measuring approaches were utilised in the case retrieval process. A DES model was implemented to analyse the performances of the proposed solutions by the fuzzy CBR subsystem. Three scenarios were generated by this subsystem as solution alternatives that were the proposed numbers of fixtures. The performances of these scenarios were evaluated using the DES model and the best alternative was identified. The novelty of this study employed the combination of fuzzy CBR and DES methods since such kinds of combinations have not been addressed yet. A numerical example was illustrated to present the soundness of the proposed methodological approach.Please refer to the PDF for author's keywords

Development of a decision support system for decision-based part/fixture assignment and fixture flow control = Ukusungulwa kohlelo lokuxhaswa kwezinqumo mayelana nokwabiwa kwezingxenye ezakhiwayo kanye nokuhanjiswa kwazo.

Doctoral Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.ABSTRACT: An intense competition in a dynamic situation has increased the requirements that must be considered in the current manufacturing systems. Among those factors, fixtures are one of the major problematic components. The cost of fixture design and manufacture contributes to 10-20% of production costs. Manufacturing firms usually use traditional methods for part/fixture assignment works. These methods are highly resource consuming and cumbersome to enumerate the available fixtures and stabilise the number of fixtures required in a system. The aim of this study was to research and develop a Decision Support System (DSS), which was useful to perform a decision-based part/fixture assignment and fixture flow control during planned production periods. The DSS was designed to assist its users to reuse/adapt the retrieved fixtures or manufacture new fixtures depending upon the state of the retrieved fixtures and the similarities between the current and retrieved cases. This DSS combined Case-Based Reasoning (CBR), fuzzy set theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) techniques. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) component of the DSS immensely used a fuzzy CBR system combined with the fuzzy AHP and guiding rules from general domain knowledge. The fuzzy CBR was used to represent the uncertain and imprecise values of case attributes. The fuzzy AHP was applied to elicit domain knowledge from experts to prioritise case attributes. New part orders and training samples were represented as new and prior cases respectively using an Object-Oriented (OO) method for case retrieval and decision proposal. Popular fuzzy ranking and similarity measuring approaches were utilised in the case retrieval process. A DES model was implemented to analyse the performances of the proposed solutions by the fuzzy CBR subsystem. Three scenarios were generated by this subsystem as solution alternatives that were the proposed numbers of fixtures. The performances of these scenarios were evaluated using the DES model and the best alternative was identified. The novelty of this study employed the combination of fuzzy CBR and DES methods since such kinds of combinations have not been addressed yet. A numerical example was illustrated to present the soundness of the proposed methodological approach. Keywords: Decision support systems, case-based reasoning, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy set theory, object-oriented methods, discrete-event simulation, fixtures. IQOQA LOCWANINGO : Ukuncintisana okunezinhlelo eziguquguqukayo kulesi sikhathi samanje sekwenze ukuthi kube nezidingo ezintsha ezinhlelweni zokukhiqiza. Phakathi kwakho konke lokhu izingxenye (fixtures) zingezinye zezinto ezidala izinkinga. Intengo yokwakha uhlaka lwengxenye kanye nokuyikhiqiza kubiza amaphesenti ayi-10 kuya kwangama-20 entengo yokukhiqiza. Amafemu akhiqizayo avamise ukusebenzisa izindlela ezindala zomsebenzi wokwaba izingxenye. Lezi zindlela zidla kakhulu izinsizangqangi futhi kuthatha isikhathi eside ukubala izingxenye ezikhona nokuqinisekisa ukuthi kunesibalo esanele kulokho okumele kube yikho ohlelweni lokusebenza. Inhloso yalolu cwaningo bekungukucwaninga nokusungula i-Decision Support System (DSS) ebe lusizo ekwenzeni umsebenzi wokuthatha izinqumo ngokwabiwa kwezingxenye kanye nokuhanjiswa kwazo ngezikhathi ezimiselwe ukukhiqiza. I-DSS yakhelwa ukusiza labo abayisebenzisayo ukuze basebenzise noma bazisebenzise lapho zingakaze zisetshenziswe khona lezo zingxenye ezibuyisiwe, noma kwakhiwe ezintsha kuya ngokuthi zibuyiswe zinjani lezi ezibuyisiwe nokuthi ziyafana yini nalezo ezintsha. I-DSS isebenzise amasu ahlanganise i-Case-Based Reasoning (CBR), injulalwazi echazwa ngokuthi i-fuzzy, ne-Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) ne-Discrete-Event Simulation (DES). I-Artificial Intelligence (AI) eyingxenye ye-DSS isebenzise kakhulu uhlelo lwe-fuzzy CBR luhlangene ne-fuzzy AHP kulandelwa imithetho yolwazi olumayelana nohlobo lomsebenzi. I-CBR isetshenziswe ukumelela lezo zimo zamanani ezingaqondakali nezingaphelele kulezo zingxenye. I-AHP e-fuzzy yasetshenziswa ukuze kutholakale ulwazi kochwepheshe olubeka phambili lezo zingxenye. Ama-oda ezingxenye ezintsha kanye namasampuli asetshenziselwa ukuqeqesha avezwe njengamasha kanye nabekade evele ekhona ngokulandelana kusetshenziswa indlela eyaziwa ngokuthi yi-Object-Oriented (OO) method lapho kubuyiswa izinto noma kunezinqumo eziphakanyiswayo. Izindlela ezijwayelekile zokulandelanisa nokufanisa zisetshenziswe ohlelweni lokubuyisa izinto. Kusetshenziswe isu eliyi-DES ukuhlaziya ukusebenza kwezisombululo eziphakanyiswe yindlela ye-CBR e-fuzzy. Le ndlela iphinde yaveza izimo ezintathu eziphakanyiswe ukuba zibe yisisombululo esibalweni sezingxenye ezihlongozwayo. Ukusebenza kwalezi zimo kuhlungwe ngokusebenzisa indlela ye-DES kwase kuvela inqubo engcono. Ukungajwayeleki kwalolu cwaningo kusebenzise ingxube yezindlela ze-fuzzy CBR ne-DES ngoba lolu hlobo lwengxube belungakaze lusetshenziswe. Kusetshenziswe isibonelo sezibalo ekwethuleni ukusebenza kwale nqubo yokusebenza ehlongozwayo

Historical collaborative geocoding

The latest developments in digital have provided large data sets that can increasingly easily be accessed and used. These data sets often contain indirect localisation information, such as historical addresses. Historical geocoding is the process of transforming the indirect localisation information to direct localisation that can be placed on a map, which enables spatial analysis and cross-referencing. Many efficient geocoders exist for current addresses, but they do not deal with the temporal aspect and are based on a strict hierarchy (..., city, street, house number) that is hard or impossible to use with historical data. Indeed historical data are full of uncertainties (temporal aspect, semantic aspect, spatial precision, confidence in historical source, ...) that can not be resolved, as there is no way to go back in time to check. We propose an open source, open data, extensible solution for geocoding that is based on the building of gazetteers composed of geohistorical objects extracted from historical topographical maps. Once the gazetteers are available, geocoding an historical address is a matter of finding the geohistorical object in the gazetteers that is the best match to the historical address. The matching criteriae are customisable and include several dimensions (fuzzy semantic, fuzzy temporal, scale, spatial precision ...). As the goal is to facilitate historical work, we also propose web-based user interfaces that help geocode (one address or batch mode) and display over current or historical topographical maps, so that they can be checked and collaboratively edited. The system is tested on Paris city for the 19-20th centuries, shows high returns rate and is fast enough to be used interactively.Comment: WORKING PAPE

Assessing system architectures: the Canonical Decomposition Fuzzy Comparative methodology

The impacts of decisions made during the selection of the system architecture propagate throughout the entire system lifecycle. The challenge for system architects is to perform a realistic assessment of an inherently ambiguous system concept. Subject matter expert interpretations, intuition, and heuristics are performed quickly and guide system development in the right overall direction, but these methods are subjective and unrepeatable. Traditional analytical assessments dismiss complexity in a system by assuming severability between system components and are intolerant of ambiguity. To be defensible, a suitable methodology must be repeatable, analytically rigorous, and yet tolerant of ambiguity. The hypothesis for this research is that an architecture assessment methodology capable of achieving these objectives is possible by drawing on the strengths of existing approaches while addressing their collective weaknesses. The proposed methodology is the Canonical Decomposition Fuzzy Comparative approach. The theoretical foundations of this methodology are developed and tested through the assessment of three physical architectures for a peer-to-peer wireless network. An extensible modeling framework is established to decompose high-level system attributes into technical performance measures suitable for analysis via computational modeling. Canonical design primitives are used to assess antenna performance in the form of a comparative analysis between the baseline free space gain patterns and the installed gain patterns. Finally, a fuzzy inference system is used to interpret the comparative feature set and offer a numerical assessment. The results of this experiment support the hypothesis that the proposed methodology is well suited for exposing integration sensitivity and assessing coupled performance in physical architecture concepts --Abstract, page iii

Architecture value mapping: using fuzzy cognitive maps as a reasoning mechanism for multi-criteria conceptual design evaluation

The conceptual design phase is the most critical phase in the systems engineering life cycle. The design concept chosen during this phase determines the structure and behavior of the system, and consequently, its ability to fulfill its intended function. A good conceptual design is the first step in the development of a successful artifact. However, decision-making during conceptual design is inherently challenging and often unreliable. The conceptual design phase is marked by an ambiguous and imprecise set of requirements, and ill-defined system boundaries. A lack of usable data for design evaluation makes the problem worse. In order to assess a system accurately, it is necessary to capture the relationships between its physical attributes and the stakeholders\u27 value objectives. This research presents a novel conceptual architecture evaluation approach that utilizes attribute-value networks, designated as \u27Architecture Value Maps\u27, to replicate the decision makers\u27 cogitative processes. Ambiguity in the system\u27s overall objectives is reduced hierarchically to reveal a network of criteria that range from the abstract value measures to the design-specific performance measures. A symbolic representation scheme, the 2-Tuple Linguistic Representation is used to integrate different types of information into a common computational format, and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps are utilized as the reasoning engine to quantitatively evaluate potential design concepts. A Linguistic Ordered Weighted Average aggregation operator is used to rank the final alternatives based on the decision makers\u27 risk preferences. The proposed methodology provides systems architects with the capability to exploit the interrelationships between a system\u27s design attributes and the value that stakeholders associate with these attributes, in order to design robust, flexible, and affordable systems --Abstract, page iii

A new hybrid risk assessment process for cyber security design of smart grids using fuzzy analytic hierarchy processes

IT vulnerabilities, cyber threats, and resulting risks significantly impact the stability of current and future power grids. The results of a Risk Assessment process contribute to a better understanding of the causes and nature of the associated risks. The risks assessed by experts are available in both numerical and linguistic representations – this makes it beneficial to include a combination of linguistic and numerical analyses. In this paper, we propose a new Hybrid Risk Assessment method based on fuzzy logic, leading to more precise results. The presented approach specifies the variables and membership functions of fuzzy logic with reference to Smart Grids. For this propose, a case study with five risk events in a small-scale Smart Grid is carried out as an example. The results can then support decision-makers in ensuring grid stability

An Information Security Control Assessment Methodology for Organizations

In an era where use and dependence of information systems is significantly high, the threat of incidents related to information security that could jeopardize the information held by organizations is more and more serious. Alarming facts within the literature point to inadequacies in information security practices, particularly the evaluation of information security controls in organizations. Research efforts have resulted in various methodologies developed to deal with the information security controls assessment problem. A closer look at these traditional methodologies highlights various weaknesses that can prevent an effective information security controls assessment in organizations. This dissertation develops a methodology that addresses such weaknesses when evaluating information security controls in organizations. The methodology, created using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of MATLAB based on fuzzy theory and fuzzy logic, uses fuzzy set theory which allows for a more accurate assessment of imprecise criteria than traditional methodologies. It is argued and evidenced that evaluating information security controls using fuzzy set theory addresses existing weaknesses found in the literature for traditional evaluation methodologies and, thus, leads to a more thorough and precise assessment. This, in turn, results in a more effective selection of information security controls and enhanced information security in organizations. The main contribution of this research to the information security literature is the development of a fuzzy set theory-based assessment methodology that provides for a thorough evaluation of ISC in organizations. The methodology just created addresses the weaknesses or limitations identified in existing information security control assessment methodologies, resulting in an enhanced information security in organizations. The methodology can also be implemented in a spreadsheet or software tool, and promote usage in practical scenarios where highly complex methodologies for ISC selection are impractical. Moreover, the methodology fuses multiple evaluation criteria to provide a holistic view of the overall quality of information security controls, and it is easily extended to include additional evaluation criteria factor not considered within this dissertation. This is one of the most meaningful contributions from this dissertation. Finally, the methodology provides a mechanism to evaluate the quality of information security controls in various domains. Overall, the methodology presented in this dissertation proved to be a feasible technique for evaluating information security controls in organizations

Modelling Driving Forces of Urban Growth with Fuzzy Sets and GIS

Urban growth occurs in conjunction with a series of decision-making processes and is, on the whole, not deterministic but rather is the outcome of competing local demands and uncontrolled, chaotic processes. Fuzzy sets theory is ideally suited to treat the complexity and uncertainties in the decision-making process. This chapter presented an example of how fuzzy sets can be applied to model urban growth driving forces within geographical information system environment. The mathematical models for measuring, computing and defining 10 fuzzy urban growth factors to form fuzzy driving forces of urban growth in Riyadh City, Saudi Arabia, were discussed. Four factors were considered as the driving forces for urban growth in Riyadh City: the transport support factor, urban agglomeration and attractiveness factor, topographical constraints factor, and planning policies and regulations factor. The urban growth factors were established using fuzzy set theory, which quantified the effect of distance decay using fuzziness. This approach is a transparent method of interpreting the curve of distance decay using linguistic variables. This feature does not exist in the linear, negative exponential or inverse power functions. The results indicate that fuzzy accessibility and fuzzy urban density factors are capable of mimicking and representing the uncertainty in the behaviour of the human decision-making process in land development in a very efficient manner