Using simulation to incorporate dynamic criteria into multiple criteria decision making

In this paper we present a case study demonstrating how dynamic and uncertain criteria can be incorporated into a multi-criteria analysis with the help of discrete event simulation. The simulation guided multi-criteria analysis can include both monetary and nonmonetary criteria that are static or dynamic, whereas standard multi-criteria analysis only deals with static criteria and cost benefit analysis only deals with static monetary criteria. The dynamic and uncertain criteria are incorporated by using simulation to explore how the decision options perform. The results of the simulation are then fed into the multi-criteria analysis. By enabling the incorporation of dynamic and uncertain criteria, the dynamic multiple criteria analysis was able to take a unique perspective of the problem. The highest ranked option returned by the dynamic multi-criteria analysis differed from the other decision aid techniques. The results suggest that dynamic multiple criteria analysis may be highly suitable for decisions that require long term evaluation, as this is often when uncertainty is introduced

Defining and characterising structural uncertainty in decision analytic models

An inappropriate structure for a decision analytic model can potentially invalidate estimates of cost-effectiveness and estimates of the value of further research. However, there are often a number of alternative and credible structural assumptions which can be made. Although it is common practice to acknowledge potential limitations in model structure, there is a lack of clarity about methods to characterize the uncertainty surrounding alternative structural assumptions and their contribution to decision uncertainty. A review of decision models commissioned by the NHS Health Technology Programme was undertaken to identify the types of model uncertainties described in the literature. A second review was undertaken to identify approaches to characterise these uncertainties. The assessment of structural uncertainty has received little attention in the health economics literature. A common method to characterise structural uncertainty is to compute results for each alternative model specification, and to present alternative results as scenario analyses. It is then left to decision maker to assess the credibility of the alternative structures in interpreting the range of results. The review of methods to explicitly characterise structural uncertainty identified two methods: 1) model averaging, where alternative models, with different specifications, are built, and their results averaged, using explicit prior distributions often based on expert opinion and 2) Model selection on the basis of prediction performance or goodness of fit. For a number of reasons these methods are neither appropriate nor desirable methods to characterize structural uncertainty in decision analytic models. When faced with a choice between multiple models, another method can be employed which allows structural uncertainty to be explicitly considered and does not ignore potentially relevant model structures. Uncertainty can be directly characterised (or parameterised) in the model itself. This method is analogous to model averaging on individual or sets of model inputs, but also allows the value of information associated with structural uncertainties to be resolved.

Operating room planning and scheduling: A literature review.

This paper provides a review of recent research on operating room planning and scheduling. We evaluate the literature on multiple fields that are related to either the problem setting (e.g. performance measures or patient classes) or the technical features (e.g. solution technique or uncertainty incorporation). Since papers are pooled and evaluated in various ways, a diversified and detailed overview is obtained that facilitates the identification of manuscripts related to the reader's specific interests. Throughout the literature review, we summarize the significant trends in research on operating room planning and scheduling and we identify areas that need to be addressed in the future.Health care; Operating room; Scheduling; Planning; Literature review;

Developing communication tools for resource management in western Alaska: an evaluation of the Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative coastal projects database

Master's Project (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2017Science communication is an essential component in decision-making for resource management in Alaska. This field aids in bridging knowledge gaps between scientists and diverse stakeholders. In 2014, the Western Alaska LCC developed a database cataloging the current coastal change projects in order to facilitate collaboration amongst researchers, managers, and the surrounding communities. In order to better inform similar outreach projects in other LCC regions, this MNRM project entailed an evaluation of this database between April and September 2016 and comprised a ten-question phone interview with the database participants and other involved personnel. Results from this evaluation can help refine the database to better suit its users' needs in the future, and it can also inform the creation of similar tools in other LCC regions. This project evaluated the use and usability of the Western Alaska LCC Coastal Change Database. First, I review coastal change and its impacts on Western Alaska. Next, I explore how institutions can respond to these changes and what resources they can use, including decision-support tools. I then provide examples of different decision-support tools (both in academic literature and in Alaskan projects) and discuss methodologies for evaluating their use. Interview results are then reported. The evaluation of the WALCC Coastal Change Database indicated that the tool was mostly used to enhance general understanding of the research occurring in the region. Respondents were less likely to use it for time-intensive tasks such as collaboration. Respondents also indicated that a place exists for tools like this database to flourish, but they need 1) persistent outreach, 2) a dynamic design, and 3) immediate benefits for users' time. In the future, regular updates and frequent outreach could improve the database's usability and help maintain its credibility

Assessing farmer behaviour as affected by policy and technological innovations: bio-economic farm models

Farm Management,

Designing low carbon buildings : a framework to reduce energy consumption and embed the use of renewables

EU policies to mitigate climate change set ambitious goals for energy and carbon reduction for the built environment. In order meet and even exceed the EU targets the UK Government's Climate Change Act 2008 sets a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the UK by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. To support these targets the UK government also aims to ensure that 20% of the UK's electricity is supplied from renewable sources by 2020. This article presents a design framework and a set of integrated IT tools to enable an analysis of the energy performance of building designs, including consideration of active and passive renewable energy technologies, when the opportunity to substantially improve the whole life-cycle energy performance of those designs is still open. To ensure a good fit with current architectural practices the design framework is integrated with the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) key stages, which is the most widely used framework for the delivery of construction projects. The main aims of this article are to illustrate the need for new approaches to support low carbon building design that can be integrated into current architectural practice, to present the design framework developed in this research and illustrate its application in a case study