Modelling and simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China using system dynamics

Current deployments of mobile commerce focus mostly on digital content. However, mobile commerce will grow rapidly with the increased use of portable devices such as cellular phones and personal digital assistants (PDA), increased network bandwidth, and the availability of a wider range of mobile commerce services and transactions. As the revenue generated from mobile commerce is expected to skyrocket in the coming years, strategists are turning their attention to untapped emerging markets in the developing countries. Understanding how mobile commerce will develop in countries like China, where huge market potential exists, is of paramount importance in order to develop effective strategies that will positively affect its course. Modelling the diffusion of mobile commerce in a country is a difficult task due to the non-linear, complex and uncertain nature of its operating environment. A System Dynamics approach is more appropriate to model such a complex system. The main objective of this study is to illustrate the process of developing System Dynamics models for simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China by using a subset of the factors involved. In order to achieve this objective, the Chinese mobile commerce was modelled as the interaction of three subsystems, namely: population evolution in China; mobile commerce diffusion; and the influence from the provision of mobile commerce terminals (MCT) on mobile commerce diffusion. Each subsystem was modelled by identifying the factors influencing its development as well as the interactions between the factors. The subsystems were calibrated using historical and forecasted data whenever they were available. The validation of the subsystems was also performed through extensive sensitivity analysis. The complete model was used for experimenting with some typical Chinese mobile commerce scenarios for the purpose of analysing mobile commerce trends and designing strategies to exert positive influences on those trends. The simulation of the submodels provided useful insights into their respective areas for controlling their development. Simulation of the population development submodel showed that, in addition to family planning policies, urbanisation rates and life quality were important factors that significantly influenced population dynamics in China. Simulation of the mobile commerce diffusion submodel showed that the time when mobile commerce is implemented will significantly influence its market expansion speed i.e. the later mobile commerce is implemented, the quicker the market will expand. The existence of floating populations in China will be a big advantage in starting up the rural market. However, if mobile commerce is implemented too late, the penetration in rural areas will be negligible. Simulation of the MCT provision submodel showed the importance of opening the Chinese market to foreign suppliers and the coordination of strategies regarding the design and supply of MCTs with strategies for the growth of mobile commerce in China. This study is a first attempt to simulate the diffusion of mobile commerce in China using System Dynamics. The results obtained showed that the models developed were useful for understanding and controlling the future diffusion of mobile commerce in China

A Model of Attitudes toward the Acceptance of Mobile Phone Use in Public Places

Since the first commercial launch of cellular telecoms by NET in Tokyo Japan in 1979 and the launch of the NMT system in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden in 1981, the mobile phone has undergone continual incremental innovation for changing market needs. This study investigates the factors affecting the attitudes towards the social acceptance of mobile phones in public places and how this attitude affects its usage. Theories on innovation and technology acceptance were reviewed, and studies relating demographic factors to technology acceptance were examined. A model was proposed relating the usage frequency and attitudes towards acceptance of mobile phone in public places to demographic factors, such as country, age, education, gender, and work status. A survey was conducted among mobile phone users, and the sample consisted of 1079 respondents in the United States, France, Italy, Turkey, and Finland. A structural equation model was developed to analyze the survey data. Results of the analysis indicate that the attitudes about mobile phone use in public places depend on country, and age factors. This attitude in turn significantly affects the usage frequency of mobile phones. In addition, usage frequency also is affected by gender and work status. Implications of the findings for both academicians and practitioners are discussedAttitudes about Mobile Phone Use, Simultaneous Relationships, Demographic Factors, Mobile Phone Voice Messaging, Mobile Phone Text Messaging

Profiling a decade of information systems frontiers’ research

This article analyses the first ten years of research published in the Information Systems Frontiers (ISF) from 1999 to 2008. The analysis of the published material includes examining variables such as most productive authors, citation analysis, universities associated with the most publications, geographic diversity, authors’ backgrounds and research methods. The keyword analysis suggests that ISF research has evolved from establishing concepts and domain of information systems (IS), technology and management to contemporary issues such as outsourcing, web services and security. The analysis presented in this paper has identified intellectually significant studies that have contributed to the development and accumulation of intellectual wealth of ISF. The analysis has also identified authors published in other journals whose work largely shaped and guided the researchers published in ISF. This research has implications for researchers, journal editors, and research institutions

EDI and intelligent agents integration to manage food chains

Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) is a type of inter-organizational information system, which permits the automatic and structured communication of data between organizations. Although EDI is used for internal communication, its main application is in facilitating closer collaboration between organizational entities, e.g. suppliers, credit institutions, and transportation carriers. This study illustrates how agent technology can be used to solve real food supply chain inefficiencies and optimise the logistics network. For instance, we explain how agribusiness companies can use agent technology in association with EDI to collect data from retailers, group them into meaningful categories, and then perform different functions. As a result, the distribution chain can be managed more efficiently. Intelligent agents also make available timely data to inventory management resulting in reducing stocks and tied capital. Intelligent agents are adoptive to changes so they are valuable in a dynamic environment where new products or partners have entered into the supply chain. This flexibility gives agent technology a relative advantage which, for pioneer companies, can be a competitive advantage. The study concludes with recommendations and directions for further research

Key Issues in Expansion of End-User Mobile Communication in China

China’s mobile communications market presents unique market challenges. With a high subscriber growth rate but polarized and stratified consumer adoption trends, an investigation into the current status of this market will improve our understanding on how adoption of mobile communications is evolving. In this descriptive paper we analyze key issues relating to market characteristics of mobile communications with an objective to better comprehend the dynamics of this largest mobile subscribers market. Using secondary data we identify mobile industry and end-user related trends to infer our conclusions for the industry.China;mobile communication;mobile subscribers market

Technology, Innovation and Latecomer Strategies: Evidence from the Mobile Handset Manufacturing Sector in China

Since the entry of Chinese domestic mobile handset manufacturers in 1998, Chinese domestic suppliers have successfully surpassed the market share of joint ventures (JVs) while direct imports have been largely phased out. By examining China’s mobile handset manufacturing sector as a whole and through case studies, we found several factors that contributed to the success of China’s domestic handset manufacturers which can be classified into three categories: market conditions, competition, and government’s support.

From the Hands of an Early Adopter's Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods' Lifetime Survival

One of the major questions in the study of economics, logistics, and business forecasting is the measurement and prediction of value creation, distribution, and lifetime in the form of goods. In "real" economies, a perfect model for the circulation of goods is impossible. However, virtual realities and economies pose a new frontier for the broad study of economics, since every good and transaction can be accurately tracked. Therefore, models that predict goods' circulation can be tested and confirmed before their introduction to "real life" and other scenarios. The present study is focused on the characteristics of early-stage adopters for virtual goods, and how they predict the lifespan of the goods. We employ machine learning and decision trees as the basis of our prediction models. Results provide evidence that the prediction of the lifespan of virtual objects is possible based just on data from early holders of those objects. Overall, communication and social activity are the main drivers for the effective propagation of virtual goods, and they are the most expected characteristics of early adopters.Comment: 28 page

Marketing competition on a new product introduction - a structural analysis using systems thinking

Launching a new product on the market is a strategic activity that needs specific investments and a specific organisation. There are multiple factors that determine the success of a new product on the market but their direct effects are not often very well observable (marketing for example). With this study, we analysed the systemic structure underlying the dynamics related to the introduction of a new product on the market. In particular, we built a qualitative model based on the systems thinking methodology of causal-loop diagrams (CLDs), starting from the main structure and assumptions of the well-known Bass model. The model provides a systemic perspective on the interdependencies among various aspects that interact in important organisational areas. The presented causal-loop diagram tries to describe the systems structure which is intrinsic to the introduction and diffusion of a new product on the market, and how ultimately the related dynamics could be manage