Modelling methodologies for railway asset management

Management of railway assets incurs significant expenditure. Railway asset management modelling can predict the cost and efficacy of an asset management plan, and thus support the asset management planning process. Modelling frameworks can be used to facilitate the development of large, multi-asset, whole life cycle models which can be used to represent large sections of rail track and associated assets. This is achieved with libraries of models and tools with a high level of inter-compatibility. This research set out to support the development of modelling frameworks for railway asset management. It sought to determine the state of the art of railway asset management modelling in order to find which assets require further modelling development before they can be suitably represented in a framework’s model library. It also sought to determine the most accurate and suitable modelling methodology to base the framework upon. These aims were met by first carrying out a literature review to determine the state of the art of asset management modelling for major railway asset types. This review found Petri net models solved via Monte Carlo methods to be the most suitable modelling methodology for asset management. The level crossing asset class was chosen for the development of several models to explore the different types of Petri net model, concentrating on the computational resources required. This asset class was chosen as no asset management model was found in literature, and the diversity of the asset interactions. Literature review found several asset classes in need of further development, and some where asset management modelling may not be possible without other advances. The level crossing Petri net models developed demonstrated that computational requirements differ between the various types of Petri net. Stochastic Petri nets were found to simulate quickly, but had a high memory requirement. Coloured Petri nets were found to have the opposite requirements. A novel Petri net type, the Simple Coloured Petri net was developed to create a balance in computational cost. It was further found that complex processes such as scheduling and resource allocation can only be carried out using Coloured Petri nets due to their enhanced feature set. This work has found that further research on modelling specific asset classes is required to enable the development of a complete asset modelling library for use in a framework. If large models are to be developed, it is recommended that the Simple Coloured Petri net be used to balance computational requirements. Any models requiring complex functions should be developed using the Coloured Petri net methodology

Safety‐oriented discrete event model for airport A‐SMGCS reliability assessment

A detailed analysis of State of the Art Technologies and Procedures into Airport Advanced-Surface Movement Guidance and Control Systems has been provided in this thesis, together with the review ofStatistical Monte Carlo Analysis, Reliability Assessment and Petri Nets theories. This practical and theoretical background has lead the author to the conclusion that there is a lack of linkage in between these fields. At the same of time the rapid increasing of Air Traffic all over the world, has brought in evidence the urgent need of practical instruments able to identify and quantify the risks connected with Aircraft operations on the ground, since the Airport has shown to be the actual ‘bottle neck’ of the entire Air Transport System. Therefore, the only winning approach to such a critical matter has to be multi-disciplinary, sewing together apparently different subjects, coming from the most disparate areas of interest and trying to fulfil the gap. The result of this thesis work has come to a start towards the end, when a Timed Coloured Petri Net (TCPN) model of a ‘sample’ Airport A-SMGCS has been developed, that is capable of taking into account different orders of questions arisen during these recent years and tries to give them some good answers. The A-SMGCS Airport model is, in the end, a parametric tool relying on Discrete Event System theory, able to perform a Reliability Analysis of the system itself, that: • uses a Monte Carlo Analysis applied to a Timed Coloured Petri Net, whose purpose is to evaluate the Safety Level of Surface Movements along an Airport • lets the user to analyse the impact of Procedures and Reliability Indexes of Systems such as Surface Movement Radars, Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast, Airport Lighting Systems, Microwave Sensors, and so on… onto the Safety Level of Airport Aircraft Transport System • not only is a valid instrument in the Design Phase, but it is useful also into the Certifying Activities an in monitoring the Safety Level of the above mentioned System with respect to changes to Technologies and different Procedures.This TCPN model has been verified against qualitative engineering expectations by using simulation experiments and occupancy time schedules generated a priori. Simulation times are good, and since the model has been written into Simulink/Stateflow programming language, it can be compiled to run real-time in C language (Real-time workshop and Stateflow Coder), thus relying on portable code, able to run virtually on any platform, giving even better performances in terms of execution time. One of the most interesting applications of this work is the estimate, for an Airport, of the kind of A-SMGCS level of implementation needed (Technical/Economical convenience evaluation). As a matter of fact, starting from the Traffic Volume and choosing the kind of Ground Equipment to be installed, one can make predictions about the Safety Level of the System: if the value is compliant with the TLS required by ICAO, the A-SMGCS level of Implementation is sufficiently adequate. Nevertheless, even if the Level of Safety has been satisfied, some delays due to reduced or simplified performances (even if Safety is compliant) of some of the equipment (e.g. with reference to False Alarm Rates) can lead to previously unexpected economical consequences, thus requiring more accurate systems to be installed, in order to meet also Airport economical constraints. Work in progress includes the analysis of the effect of weather conditions and re-sequencing of a given schedule. The effect of re-sequencing a given schedule is not yet enough realistic since the model does not apply inter arrival and departure separations. However, the model might show some effect on different sequences based on runway occupancy times. A further developed model containing wake turbulence separation conditions would be more sensitive for this case. Hence, further work will be directed towards: • The development of On-Line Re-Scheduling based on the available actual runway/taxiway configuration and weather conditions. • The Engineering Safety Assessment of some small Italian Airport A-SMGCSs (Model validation with real data). • The application of Stochastic Differential Equations systems in order to evaluate the collision risk on the ground inside the Place alone on the Petri Net, in the event of a Short Term Conflict Alert (STCA), by adopting Reich Collision Risk Model. • Optimal Air Traffic Control Algorithms Synthesis (Adaptive look-ahead Optimization), by Dynamically Timed Coloured Petri Nets, together with the implementation of Error-Recovery Strategies and Diagnosis Functions

Modelling methodologies for railway asset management

Management of railway assets incurs significant expenditure. Railway asset management modelling can predict the cost and efficacy of an asset management plan, and thus support the asset management planning process. Modelling frameworks can be used to facilitate the development of large, multi-asset, whole life cycle models which can be used to represent large sections of rail track and associated assets. This is achieved with libraries of models and tools with a high level of inter-compatibility. This research set out to support the development of modelling frameworks for railway asset management. It sought to determine the state of the art of railway asset management modelling in order to find which assets require further modelling development before they can be suitably represented in a framework’s model library. It also sought to determine the most accurate and suitable modelling methodology to base the framework upon. These aims were met by first carrying out a literature review to determine the state of the art of asset management modelling for major railway asset types. This review found Petri net models solved via Monte Carlo methods to be the most suitable modelling methodology for asset management. The level crossing asset class was chosen for the development of several models to explore the different types of Petri net model, concentrating on the computational resources required. This asset class was chosen as no asset management model was found in literature, and the diversity of the asset interactions. Literature review found several asset classes in need of further development, and some where asset management modelling may not be possible without other advances. The level crossing Petri net models developed demonstrated that computational requirements differ between the various types of Petri net. Stochastic Petri nets were found to simulate quickly, but had a high memory requirement. Coloured Petri nets were found to have the opposite requirements. A novel Petri net type, the Simple Coloured Petri net was developed to create a balance in computational cost. It was further found that complex processes such as scheduling and resource allocation can only be carried out using Coloured Petri nets due to their enhanced feature set. This work has found that further research on modelling specific asset classes is required to enable the development of a complete asset modelling library for use in a framework. If large models are to be developed, it is recommended that the Simple Coloured Petri net be used to balance computational requirements. Any models requiring complex functions should be developed using the Coloured Petri net methodology

A methodology for the requirements analysis of critical real-time systems

PhD ThesisThis thesis describes a methodology for the requirements analysis of critical real-time systems. The methodology is based on formal methods, and provides a systematic way in which requirements can be analysed and specifications produced. The proposed methodology consists of a framework with distinct phases of analysis, a set oftechniques appropriate for the issues to be analysed at each phase of the framework, a hierarchical structure of the specifications obtained from the process of analysis, and techniques to perform quality assessment of the specifications. The phases of the framework, which are abstraction levels for the analysis of the requirements, follow directly from a general structure adopted for critical real-time systems. The intention is to define abstraction levels, or domains, in which the analysis of requirements can be performed in terms of specific properties of the system, thus reducing the inherent complexity of the analysis. Depending on the issues to be analysed in each domain, the choice of the appropriate formalism is determined by the set of features, related to that domain, that a formalism should possess. In this work, instead of proposing new formalisms we concentrate on identifying and enumerating those features that a formalism should have. The specifications produced at each phase of the framework are organised by means of a specification hierarchy, which facilitates our assessment of the quality of the requirements specifications, and their traceability. Such an assessment should be performed by qualitative and quantitative means in order to obtain high confidence (assurance) that the level of safety is acceptable. In order to exemplify the proposed methodology for the requirements analysis of critical real-time systems we discuss a case study based on a crossing of two rail tracks (in a model railway), which raises safety issues that are similar to those found at a traditional level crossing (i.e. rail-road)CAPES/Ministry of Education (Brazil

Optimisation of Rail-road Level Crossing Closing Time in a Heterogenous Railway Traffic: Towards Safety Improvement - South African Case Study

The gravitation towards mobility-as-a service in railway transportation system can be achieved at low cost and effort using shared railway network. However, the problem with shared networks is the presence of the level crossings where railway and road traffic intersects. Thus, long waiting time is expected at the level crossings due to the increase in traffic volume and heterogeneity. Furthermore, safety and capacity can be severely compromised by long level crossing closing time. The emphasis of this study is to optimise the rail-road level crossing closing time in order to achieve improved safety and capacity in a heterogeneous railway network. It is imperative to note that rail-road level crossing system assumes the socio-technical and safety critical duality which often impedes improvement efforts. Therefore, thorough understanding of the factors with highest influence on the level crossing closing time is required. Henceforth, data analysis has been conducted on eight active rail-road level crossings found on the southern corridor of the Western Cape metro rail. The spatial, temporal and behavioural analysis was conducted to extract features with influence on the level crossing closing time. Convex optimisation with the objective to minimise the level crossing closing time is formulated taking into account identified features. Moreover, the objective function is constrained by the train's traction characteristics along the constituent segments of the rail-road level crossing, speed restriction and headway time. The results show that developed solution guarantees at most 53.2% and 62.46% reduction in the level crossing closing time for the zero and nonzero dwell time, respectively. Moreover, the correctness of the presented solution has been validated based on the time lost at the level crossing and railway traffic capacity consumption. Thus, presented solution has been proven to achieve at most 50% recovery of the time lost per train trip and at least 15% improvement in capacity under normal conditions. Additionally, 27% capacity improvement is achievable at peak times and can increase depending on the severity of the headway constraints. However, convex optimisation of the level crossing closing time still fall short in level crossing with nonzero dwell time due to the approximation of dwell time based on the anticipated rather than actual value

Research on Minimum Safety Distance in Free Flight Based on CNS Performances

Abstract Free flight is one of effective methods to solve airspace congestion in the future. In order to guarantee safety of flight in free flight environment, the minimum safety distance was studied. Within circumstance that collision avoidance system hasn't started to make TCAS logic judgment to flight nearby, communication, navigation and surveillance (CNS) performances play a decisive role to minimum safety distance. The position errors, which were affected by CNS performances, were regarded as Brownian motion along the coordinate direction respectively. Then a model for collision risk in free flight environment was established basing stochastic differential equations. Minimum safety distance between flights can be obtained using dichotomy to optimize under the given Target Level of Safety (TLS). The example shows that the model is feasible