Cybersecurity Risk Analysis of Industrial Automation Systems on the Basis of Cognitive Modeling Technology

The issues of procuring the cybersecurity of modern industrial systems and networks acquire special urgency because of imperfection of their protection tools and presence of vulnerabilities. International standards ISA/IEC 62443 offer the system risk-oriented approach to solve the tasks of providing the security of industrial control systems (ICS) at all stages of life cycle. But in view of high uncertainty and complexity of procedure of formalizing the factors affecting the final indices of system security, the problem of cybersecurity risk assessment remains open and requires applying new approaches based on the technology of data mining and cognitive modeling. Cognitive modeling of risk assessment using fuzzy grey cognitive maps (FGCM) allows us to take into account the uncertainty factor arising in the process of vulnerability probability assessment for each of security nodes. The interval estimates of FGCM connection weights can reflect the scatter of expert group opinions that allows us to take into account more completely the data available for risk analysis. The main stages of ICS security assessment with use of FGCM are analyzed in the chapter on the example of distributed industrial automation network. The recommendations concerning the choice of the necessary countermeasures improving the level of network security in the conditions of possible external and internal threats are considered

Learning FCMs with multi-local and balanced memetic algorithms for forecasting industrial drying processes

In this paper, we propose a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) learning approach with a multi-local search in balanced memetic algorithms for forecasting industrial drying processes. The first contribution of this paper is to propose a FCM model by an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA), but the resulted FCM model is improved by a multi-local and balanced local search algorithm. Memetic algorithms can be tuned with different local search strategies (CMA-ES, SW, SSW and Simplex) and the balance of the effort between global and local search. To do this, we applied the proposed approach to the forecasting of moisture loss in industrial drying process. The thermal drying process is a relevant one used in many industrial processes such as food industry, biofuels production, detergents and dyes in powder production, pharmaceutical industry, reprography applications, textile industries, and others. This research also shows that exploration of the search space is more relevant than finding local optima in the FCM models tested

Emotional Design: An Overview

Emotional design has been well recognized in the domain of human factors and ergonomics. In this chapter, we reviewed related models and methods of emotional design. We are motivated to encourage emotional designers to take multiple perspectives when examining these models and methods. Then we proposed a systematic process for emotional design, including affective-cognitive needs elicitation, affective-cognitive needs analysis, and affective-cognitive needs fulfillment to support emotional design. Within each step, we provided an updated review of the representative methods to support and offer further guidance on emotional design. We hope researchers and industrial practitioners can take a systematic approach to consider each step in the framework with care. Finally, the speculations on the challenges and future directions can potentially help researchers across different fields to further advance emotional design.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163319/1/Emotional_Design_Manuscript_Final.pdfSEL

Risk-based maintenance of critical and complex systems

Tableau d’honneur de la Faculté des études supérieures et postdoctorales, 2016-2017.De nos jours, la plupart des systèmes dans divers secteurs critiques tels que l'aviation, le pétrole et les soins de santé sont devenus très complexes et dynamiques, et par conséquent peuvent à tout moment s'arrêter de fonctionner. Pour éviter que cela ne se reproduise et ne devienne incontrôlable ce qui engagera des pertes énormes en matière de coûts et d'indisponibilité; l'adoption de stratégies de contrôle et de maintenance s'avèrent plus que nécessaire et même vitale. Dans le génie des procédés, les stratégies optimales de maintenance pour ces systèmes pourraient avoir un impact significatif sur la réduction des coûts et sur les temps d'arrêt, sur la maximisation de la fiabilité et de la productivité, sur l'amélioration de la qualité et enfin pour atteindre les objectifs souhaités des compagnies. En outre, les risques et les incertitudes associés à ces systèmes sont souvent composés de plusieurs relations de cause à effet de façon extrêmement complexe. Cela pourrait mener à une augmentation du nombre de défaillances de ces systèmes. Par conséquent, un outil d'analyse de défaillance avancée est nécessaire pour considérer les interactions complexes de défaillance des composants dans les différentes phases du cycle de vie du produit pour assurer les niveaux élevés de sécurité et de fiabilité. Dans cette thèse, on aborde dans un premier temps les lacunes des méthodes d'analyse des risques/échec et celles qui permettent la sélection d'une classe de stratégie de maintenance à adopter. Nous développons ensuite des approches globales pour la maintenance et l'analyse du processus de défaillance fondée sur les risques des systèmes et machines complexes connus pour être utilisées dans toutes les industries. Les recherches menées pour la concrétisation de cette thèse ont donné lieu à douze contributions importantes qui se résument comme suit: Dans la première contribution, on aborde les insuffisances des méthodes en cours de sélection de la stratégie de maintenance et on développe un cadre fondé sur les risques en utilisant des méthodes dites du processus de hiérarchie analytique (Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), de cartes cognitives floues (Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM)), et la théorie des ensembles flous (Fuzzy Soft Sets (FSS)) pour sélectionner la meilleure politique de maintenance tout en considérant les incertitudes. La deuxième contribution aborde les insuffisances de la méthode de l'analyse des modes de défaillance, de leurs effets et de leur criticité (AMDEC) et son amélioration en utilisant un modèle AMDEC basée sur les FCM. Les contributions 3 et 4, proposent deux outils de modélisation dynamique des risques et d'évaluation à l'aide de la FCM pour faire face aux risques de l'externalisation de la maintenance et des réseaux de collaboration. Ensuite, on étend les outils développés et nous proposons un outil d'aide à la décision avancée pour prédire l'impact de chaque risque sur les autres risques ou sur la performance du système en utilisant la FCM (contribution 5).Dans la sixième contribution, on aborde les risques associés à la maintenance dans le cadre des ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)) et on propose une autre approche intégrée basée sur la méthode AMDEC floue pour la priorisation des risques. Dans les contributions 7, 8, 9 et 10, on effectue une revue de la littérature concernant la maintenance basée sur les risques des dispositifs médicaux, puisque ces appareils sont devenus très complexes et sophistiqués et l'application de modèles de maintenance et d'optimisation pour eux est assez nouvelle. Ensuite, on développe trois cadres intégrés pour la planification de la maintenance et le remplacement de dispositifs médicaux axée sur les risques. Outre les contributions ci-dessus, et comme étude de cas, nous avons réalisé un projet intitulé “Mise à jour de guide de pratique clinique (GPC) qui est un cadre axé sur les priorités pour la mise à jour des guides de pratique cliniques existantes” au centre interdisciplinaire de recherche en réadaptation et intégration sociale du Québec (CIRRIS). Nos travaux au sein du CIRRIS ont amené à deux importantes contributions. Dans ces deux contributions (11e et 12e) nous avons effectué un examen systématique de la littérature pour identifier les critères potentiels de mise à jour des GPCs. Nous avons validé et pondéré les critères identifiés par un sondage international. Puis, sur la base des résultats de la onzième contribution, nous avons développé un cadre global axé sur les priorités pour les GPCs. Ceci est la première fois qu'une telle méthode quantitative a été proposée dans la littérature des guides de pratiques cliniques. L'évaluation et la priorisation des GPCs existants sur la base des critères validés peuvent favoriser l'acheminement des ressources limitées dans la mise à jour de GPCs qui sont les plus sensibles au changement, améliorant ainsi la qualité et la fiabilité des décisions de santé.Today, most systems in various critical sectors such as aviation, oil and health care have become very complex and dynamic, and consequently can at any time stop working. To prevent this from reoccurring and getting out of control which incur huge losses in terms of costs and downtime; the adoption of control and maintenance strategies are more than necessary and even vital. In process engineering, optimal maintenance strategies for these systems could have a significant impact on reducing costs and downtime, maximizing reliability and productivity, improving the quality and finally achieving the desired objectives of the companies. In addition, the risks and uncertainties associated with these systems are often composed of several extremely complex cause and effect relationships. This could lead to an increase in the number of failures of such systems. Therefore, an advanced failure analysis tool is needed to consider the complex interactions of components’ failures in the different phases of the product life cycle to ensure high levels of safety and reliability. In this thesis, we address the shortcomings of current failure/risk analysis and maintenance policy selection methods in the literature. Then, we develop comprehensive approaches to maintenance and failure analysis process based on the risks of complex systems and equipment which are applicable in all industries. The research conducted for the realization of this thesis has resulted in twelve important contributions, as follows: In the first contribution, we address the shortcomings of the current methods in selecting the optimum maintenance strategy and develop an integrated risk-based framework using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM), and fuzzy Soft set (FSS) tools to select the best maintenance policy by considering the uncertainties.The second contribution aims to address the shortcomings of traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method and enhance it using a FCM-based FMEA model. Contributions 3 and 4, present two dynamic risk modeling and assessment tools using FCM for dealing with risks of outsourcing maintenance and collaborative networks. Then, we extend the developed tools and propose an advanced decision support tool for predicting the impact of each risk on the other risks or on the performance of system using FCM (contribution 5). In the sixth contribution, we address the associated risks in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) maintenance and we propose another integrated approach using fuzzy FMEA method for prioritizing the risks. In the contributions 7, 8, 9, and 10, we perform a literature review regarding the risk-based maintenance of medical devices, since these devices have become very complex and sophisticated and the application of maintenance and optimization models to them is fairly new. Then, we develop three integrated frameworks for risk-based maintenance and replacement planning of medical devices. In addition to above contributions, as a case study, we performed a project titled “Updating Clinical Practice Guidelines; a priority-based framework for updating existing guidelines” in CIRRIS which led to the two important contributions. In these two contributions (11th and 12th) we first performed a systematic literature review to identify potential criteria in updating CPGs. We validated and weighted the identified criteria through an international survey. Then, based on the results of the eleventh contribution, we developed a comprehensive priority-based framework for updating CPGs based on the approaches that we had already developed and applied success fully in other industries. This is the first time that such a quantitative method has been proposed in the literature of guidelines. Evaluation and prioritization of existing CPGs based on the validated criteria can promote channelling limited resources into updating CPGs that are most sensitive to change, thus improving the quality and reliability of healthcare decisions made based on current CPGs. Keywords: Risk-based maintenance, Maintenance strategy selection, FMEA, FCM, Medical devices, Clinical practice guidelines

Modelling socio-ecological systems: Implementation of an advanced Fuzzy Cognitive Map framework for policy development for addressing complex real-life challenges

This study implements a novel Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) framework for addressing large complex socio-ecological problems. These are characterized as qualitative, dominated by uncertainty, human involvement with different and vague perceptions/expectations, and complex systems dynamics due to feedback relations. The FCM framework provides a participatory soft computing approach to develop consensus solutions. We demonstrate its implementation in a case study: a national-scale acute water scarcity crisis. The model has eight steps starting from collecting data from stakeholders in the form of FCMs (bi-directional graphs) represented by nodes and imprecise connections. All subsequent steps operate within a new fuzzy 2-tuple framework that overcomes previous FCM limitations through advanced processing methods, where large FCMs are fuzzified and analyzed, condensed, and aggregated using graph-theoretic measures. FCMs are simulated as Auto-Associative Neural Networks (AANN) to assess policy solutions to address the problem. In this study, very large cognitive maps were developed through interviews capturing perceptions of five different stakeholder groups taking into consideration the causes, consequences and challenges of the acute water scarcity problem in Jordan. The complex FCMs containing 186 variables comprehensively covered all aspects of water scarcity. FCMs were condensed into smaller maps in two levels. They were also combined into five stakeholder group FCMs and one whole system FCM (total 123 FCMs). AANN simulations of policy scenarios were conducted on the whole system FCM, first at the most condensed level and then moved top-down through the next two levels of granularity to explore potential solutions. These were ranked by a novel fuzzy Appropriateness criterion to provide a number of high level and effective strategies to mitigate the water crisis

COVID-19 and Digital Transformation -- Developing an Open Experimental Testbed for Sustainable and Innovative Environments (ETSIE) using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

This paper sketches a new approach using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to operably map and simulate digital transformation in architecture and urban planning. Today these processes are poorly understood. Many current studies on digital transformation are only treating questions of economic efficiency. Sustainability and social impact only play a minor role. Decisive definitions, concepts and terms stay unclear. Therefore this paper develops an open experimental testbed for sustainable and innovative environments (ETSIE) for three different digital transformation scenarios using FCMs. A traditional growth-oriented scenario, a COVID-19 scenario and an innovative and sustainable COVID-19 scenario are modeled and tested. All three scenarios have the same number of components, connections and the same driver components. Only the initial state vectors are different and the internal correlations are weighted differently. This allows for comparing all three scenarios on an equal basis. The mental modeler software is used (Gray et al. 2013). This paper presents one of the first applications of FCMs in the context of digital transformation. It is shown, that the traditional growth-oriented scenario is structurally very similar to the current COVID-19 scenario. The current pandemic is able to accelerate digital transformation to a certain extent. But the pandemic does not guarantee for a distinct sustainable and innovative future development. Only by changing the initial state vectors and the weights of the connections an innovative and sustainable turnaround in a third scenario becomes possible.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures and 17 tables; keywords: soft computing; fuzzy cognitive maps; digital transformation; COVID-19; decision making; sustainability; integrated world system modelin

The Encyclopedia of Neutrosophic Researchers - vol. 1

This is the first volume of the Encyclopedia of Neutrosophic Researchers, edited from materials offered by the authors who responded to the editor’s invitation. The authors are listed alphabetically. The introduction contains a short history of neutrosophics, together with links to the main papers and books. Neutrosophic set, neutrosophic logic, neutrosophic probability, neutrosophic statistics, neutrosophic measure, neutrosophic precalculus, neutrosophic calculus and so on are gaining significant attention in solving many real life problems that involve uncertainty, impreciseness, vagueness, incompleteness, inconsistent, and indeterminacy. In the past years the fields of neutrosophics have been extended and applied in various fields, such as: artificial intelligence, data mining, soft computing, decision making in incomplete / indeterminate / inconsistent information systems, image processing, computational modelling, robotics, medical diagnosis, biomedical engineering, investment problems, economic forecasting, social science, humanistic and practical achievements