Scalable Approach to Uncertainty Quantification and Robust Design of Interconnected Dynamical Systems

Development of robust dynamical systems and networks such as autonomous aircraft systems capable of accomplishing complex missions faces challenges due to the dynamically evolving uncertainties coming from model uncertainties, necessity to operate in a hostile cluttered urban environment, and the distributed and dynamic nature of the communication and computation resources. Model-based robust design is difficult because of the complexity of the hybrid dynamic models including continuous vehicle dynamics, the discrete models of computations and communications, and the size of the problem. We will overview recent advances in methodology and tools to model, analyze, and design robust autonomous aerospace systems operating in uncertain environment, with stress on efficient uncertainty quantification and robust design using the case studies of the mission including model-based target tracking and search, and trajectory planning in uncertain urban environment. To show that the methodology is generally applicable to uncertain dynamical systems, we will also show examples of application of the new methods to efficient uncertainty quantification of energy usage in buildings, and stability assessment of interconnected power networks

Sampling-based Algorithms for Optimal Motion Planning

During the last decade, sampling-based path planning algorithms, such as Probabilistic RoadMaps (PRM) and Rapidly-exploring Random Trees (RRT), have been shown to work well in practice and possess theoretical guarantees such as probabilistic completeness. However, little effort has been devoted to the formal analysis of the quality of the solution returned by such algorithms, e.g., as a function of the number of samples. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap, by rigorously analyzing the asymptotic behavior of the cost of the solution returned by stochastic sampling-based algorithms as the number of samples increases. A number of negative results are provided, characterizing existing algorithms, e.g., showing that, under mild technical conditions, the cost of the solution returned by broadly used sampling-based algorithms converges almost surely to a non-optimal value. The main contribution of the paper is the introduction of new algorithms, namely, PRM* and RRT*, which are provably asymptotically optimal, i.e., such that the cost of the returned solution converges almost surely to the optimum. Moreover, it is shown that the computational complexity of the new algorithms is within a constant factor of that of their probabilistically complete (but not asymptotically optimal) counterparts. The analysis in this paper hinges on novel connections between stochastic sampling-based path planning algorithms and the theory of random geometric graphs.Comment: 76 pages, 26 figures, to appear in International Journal of Robotics Researc

Efficient computational strategies to learn the structure of probabilistic graphical models of cumulative phenomena

Structural learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is a NP-hard problem, which is further complicated by many theoretical issues, such as the I-equivalence among different structures. In this work, we focus on a specific subclass of BNs, named Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBCNs), which include specific structural constraints based on Suppes' probabilistic causation to efficiently model cumulative phenomena. Here we compare the performance, via extensive simulations, of various state-of-the-art search strategies, such as local search techniques and Genetic Algorithms, as well as of distinct regularization methods. The assessment is performed on a large number of simulated datasets from topologies with distinct levels of complexity, various sample size and different rates of errors in the data. Among the main results, we show that the introduction of Suppes' constraints dramatically improve the inference accuracy, by reducing the solution space and providing a temporal ordering on the variables. We also report on trade-offs among different search techniques that can be efficiently employed in distinct experimental settings. This manuscript is an extended version of the paper "Structural Learning of Probabilistic Graphical Models of Cumulative Phenomena" presented at the 2018 International Conference on Computational Science

CTopPRM: Clustering Topological PRM for Planning Multiple Distinct Paths in 3D Environments

In this paper, we propose a new method called Clustering Topological PRM (CTopPRM) for finding multiple homotopically distinct paths in 3D cluttered environments. Finding such distinct paths, e.g., going around an obstacle from a different side, is useful in many applications. Among others, using multiple distinct paths is necessary for optimization-based trajectory planners where found trajectories are restricted to only a single homotopy class of a given path. Distinct paths can also be used to guide sampling-based motion planning and thus increase the effectiveness of planning in environments with narrow passages. Graph-based representation called roadmap is a common representation for path planning and also for finding multiple distinct paths. However, challenging environments with multiple narrow passages require a densely sampled roadmap to capture the connectivity of the environment. Searching such a dense roadmap for multiple paths is computationally too expensive. Therefore, the majority of existing methods construct only a sparse roadmap which, however, struggles to find all distinct paths in challenging environments. To this end, we propose the CTopPRM which creates a sparse graph by clustering an initially sampled dense roadmap. Such a reduced roadmap allows fast identification of homotopically distinct paths captured in the dense roadmap. We show, that compared to the existing methods the CTopPRM improves the probability of finding all distinct paths by almost 20% in tested environments, during same run-time. The source code of our method is released as an open-source package.Comment: in IEEE Robotics and Automation Letter

Sampling-Based Temporal Logic Path Planning

In this paper, we propose a sampling-based motion planning algorithm that finds an infinite path satisfying a Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formula over a set of properties satisfied by some regions in a given environment. The algorithm has three main features. First, it is incremental, in the sense that the procedure for finding a satisfying path at each iteration scales only with the number of new samples generated at that iteration. Second, the underlying graph is sparse, which guarantees the low complexity of the overall method. Third, it is probabilistically complete. Examples illustrating the usefulness and the performance of the method are included.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures; extended version of the paper presented at IROS 201