Essays on urban and environmental economics in developing countries

My thesis is comprised of essays that study urban and environmental economic topics in developing countries. Three of the four essays study causal drivers behind the phenomenal urbanization and local economic growth in China. Its rapid growth in the recent decades provides an illustrative case for understanding how the spatial distribution of economic activities is affected by policies regulating factors of production. The fourth essay extends to another developing country, Tanzania, where the challenges posed by climate change faced by populations agglomerating in fast growing urban centers are substantial. This thesis strives to contribute to current research with my understanding of the contexts, utilization of new yet publicly available data, and novel methodology. The fist chapter, Political favoritism in China's capital markets and its effect on city sizes, examines political favoritism of cities and the effect of that favoritism on city sizes. To study favoritism we focus on capital markets, where defining favoritism is more clear-cut and not confounded with issues of city scale economies. Efficiency in capital markets requires equalized marginal returns to capital across cities, regardless of size. We estimate the city-by-city variation in the prices of capital across cities in China from 1998 to 2007. It shows how the prices facing the highest order political units and overall cross-city price dispersion change with changes in national policy and leadership. Next, the effect of capital market favoritism on city growth after the national relaxation of migration restrictions in the early 2000's is investigated. We develop a simple model to show that those cities facing a lower price of capital respond with larger population increases over the next decade, with the change labor mobility. The elasticity of the city growth rate with respect to the price of capital is estimated to be - 0.07 in the OLS approach and -0.12 in the IV approach. The second chapter, Early Chinese development zones: fist-mover advantage and persistency, studies the heterogeneous effects of China's special economic zone program by their level of government support and timing of designation. Using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, I observe that the early national development zones in China have substantially greater and persistent success in attracting FDI compared to national zones established later, or those at the provincial level. Early national zones persistently attract higher levels of FDI inflows, attract more internal migration and are of significantly larger city sizes. To investigate whether the persistent success of early national zones is driven by their first-mover advantage or their unobservable high growth potential, I use their stronger ties to overseas Chinese investors in past waves of political instability as instrumental variable. The IV estimates are comparable to DID, suggesting the success of early national zones relative to newer and provincial zones can be attributed to their first-mover advantage. This conclusion also suggest that the large positive impacts found in China in the existing literature of evaluating place-based policies can potentially be driven by a small group of first-movers. In the third chapter, Air pollution, regulations, and labor mobility in China, I study the local economic impacts of pollution regulation in China at the time when migration costs fall. On the one hand, environmental regulations impose costs on firms, which tend to reduce local employment. On the other hand, lower pollution levels are an appealing amenity that attracts human capital to the region, possibly providing a boost to economic activity. The overall net effect of these two opposing forces is ambiguous. To investigate this, I study how local economies in China between 2000 and 2010 are affected by two significant reforms in environmental regulations and internal migration. Following the environmental reform, Chinese prefectures face new national air quality standards whose enforcement intensity can be proxied by their existing air quality at the time of the policy introduction. Meanwhile, the migration reform reduces migration costs and allows workers to relocate based on their preferences for air quality across prefectures. To formalize how air quality regulation affects local employment and city sizes by skill types following the two reforms, I first develop a spatial equilibrium model to guide the empirical analysis. To address the non-random spatial distribution of local air quality, I construct a novel instrumental variable of power plant suitability to capture a prefecture's likelihood to pollute heavily. Thermal power plants are major contributors to China's emissions, while electricity distribution and pricing are centralized. Therefore, locations with comparable economic characteristics may differ substantially in their air pollution levels simply because that some host thermal power plants and some do not. The estimation results show that air pollution regulations have an overall adverse impact on local manufacturing employment, with modest reallocation from heavy to non-polluting industries locally. There is little reallocation across space of low-skilled workers, whose employment prospects are more vulnerable under pollution regulation. However, the population of high-skilled workers in heavily polluted prefectures declines, showing their strong preference for air quality as migration costs fall. The last chapter, Cholera in times of floods: weather shocks and health in Dares Salaam, takes a slightly different perspective on urban and environmental issues in developing countries. We examine the challenges faced by urban population in Tanzania as the result of growing urban density and increasing extreme weather occurrences. Urban residents in developing countries have become more vulnerable to health shocks due to poor sanitation and infrastructure. This paper is the first to empirically measure the relationship between weather and health shocks in the urban context of a developing country. Using unique high-frequency datasets of weekly cholera cases and accumulated precipitation for wards in Dar es Salaam, we find robust evidence that extreme rainfall has a significant positive impact on weekly cholera incidences. The effect is larger in wards that are more prone to flooding, have higher shares of informal housing and unpaved roads. We identify limited spatial spillovers. Time-dynamic effects suggest cumulated rainfall increases cholera occurrence immediately and with a lag of up to 5 weeks

中国と日本における都市発展及びその環境への影響の総合評価に関する研究

This study mainly focused on the spatial effect on city development. Spatial analysis was conducted to explore the characteristics and correlates of city development, and its impact on environment for cities in China and Japan. The issue of city development was investigated from multiple perspectives. The history of urban development process in China and Japan was summarized, and the correlates with urban development were compared. Meanwhile, the urban heat island of cities in China and Japan were compared北九州市立大

マルチスケールの視点からみた中国における都市開発と人口移動の関係に関する研究

Development is the main problem facing cities in the world today. Urban development is inseparable from the support of labor. The population movement between regions provides a guarantee for the sustainable development of the city. Therefore, the interactive relationship between urban development and population mobility needs more in-depth research. This research combines official statistics and emerging big data to study the interactive relationship between urban development and population mobility from the macro, meso and micro levels. In addition, with the help of exploratory spatial data analysis methods, the spatial effects between urban development and population mobility can be captured, including spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. The use of spatial econometric models reveals the driving forces that affect population mobility. The results of the empirical analysis can provide a theoretical reference for the future development of China’s urbanization.北九州市立大

地方分権と地域格差:OECD諸国の経験と中国の探査

Tohoku University犬塚元課

A spatiotemporal epidemiological investigation of the impact of environmental change on the transmission dynamics of Echinococcus spp. in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

Background: Human echinococcoses are zoonotic parasitic diseases of major public health importance globally. According to recent estimates, the geographical distribution of echinococcosis is expanding and becoming an emerging and re-emerging problem in several regions of the world. Echinococcosis endemicity is geographically heterogeneous and might be affected by global environmental change over time. The aims of my research were: 1) to assess and quantify the spatiotemporal variation in land cover and climate change in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR); 2) to identify highly endemic areas for human echinococcoses in NHAR, and to determine the environmental covariates that have shaped the local geographical distribution of the disease; 3) to develop spatial statistical models that explain and predict the spatiotemporal variation of human exposure to Echinococcus spp. in a highly endemic county of NHAR; and 4) to analyse associations between the environment and the spatiotemporal variation of human exposure to the parasites and dog infections with Echinococcus granulosus and Echinococcus multilocularis in four echinococcosis-endemic counties of NHAR. Methods: Data on echinococcosis infections and human exposure to E. granulosus and E. multilocularis were obtained from different sources: 1) A hospital-based retrospective survey of human echinococcosis cases in NHAR between 1992 and 2013; 2) three cross-sectional surveys of school children conducted in Xiji County in 2002–2003, 2006–2007 and 2012–2013; and 3) A cross-sectional survey of human exposure and dog infections with E. granulosus and E. multilocularis conducted in Xiji, Haiyuan, Guyuan and Tongxin Counties. Environmental data were derived from high-resolution (30 m) imagery from Landsat 4/5-TM and 8-OLI and meteorological reports provided by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Image analysis techniques and a Bayesian statistical framework were used to conduct a land cover change detection analyses and to develop regression models that described and quantified climate trends and the environmental factors associated with echinococcosis risk at different spatial scales. Results: The land cover changes observed in NHAR from 1991 to 2015 concurred with the main goals of a national policy on payments for ecosystem services, implemented in the Autonomous Region, in increasing forest and herbaceous vegetation coverages and in regenerating bareland. Statistically significant positive trends were observed in annual, summer and winter temperatures in most of the region, and a small magnitude change was found in annual precipitation, in the same 25-year period. The south of NHAR was identified as a highly endemic area for cystic echinococcosis (CE; caused by E. granulosus) and alveolar echinococcosis (AE; caused by E. multilocularis). Selected environmental covariates explained most of the spatial variation in AE risk, while the risk of CE appeared to be less spatially variable at the township level. The risk of exposure to E. granulosus expanded across Xiji County from 2002–2013, while the risk of exposure to E. multilocularis became more confined in communities located in the south of this highly endemic area. In 2012–2013, the predicted seroprevalences of human exposure to E. granulosus and dog infection with this parasite were characterised by similar geographical patterns across Xiji, Haiyuan, Guyuan and Tongxin Counties. By contrast, the predicted high seroprevalence areas for human exposure and dog infection with E. multilocularis did not coincide spatially. Climate, land cover and landscape fragmentation played a key role in explaining some of the observed spatial variation in the risk of infection with Echinococcus spp. among schoolchildren and dogs in the south of NHAR at the village level. Conclusions: The findings of this research defined populations at a high risk of human exposure to E. granulosus and E. multilocularis in NHAR. The research provides evidence on the potential effects of landscape regeneration projects on the incidence of human echinococcoses due to the associations found between the infections and regenerated land. This information will be essential to track future requirements for scaling up and targeting the control strategies proposed by the National Action Plan for Echinococcosis Control in China and may facilitate the design of future ecosystem management and protection policies and a more effective response to emerging local environmental risks. The predictive models developed as part of this research can also be used to monitor echinococcosis infections and the emergence in Echinococcus spp. transmission in the most affected areas