Chance-Constrained Outage Scheduling using a Machine Learning Proxy

Outage scheduling aims at defining, over a horizon of several months to years, when different components needing maintenance should be taken out of operation. Its objective is to minimize operation-cost expectation while satisfying reliability-related constraints. We propose a distributed scenario-based chance-constrained optimization formulation for this problem. To tackle tractability issues arising in large networks, we use machine learning to build a proxy for predicting outcomes of power system operation processes in this context. On the IEEE-RTS79 and IEEE-RTS96 networks, our solution obtains cheaper and more reliable plans than other candidates

Does Inflation Targeting Improve Fiscal Discipline? An Empirical Investigation

Based on panel data of 58 countries, of which 22 Inflation Targeters and 36 non Inflation Targeters, over the period 1980-2003, this paper highlights the effect of Inflation Targeting – IT- on Fiscal Discipline –FD-. We make four contributions to the literature. Firstly, by applying the 2SLS on the data, we estimate the effect of IT on central government FD as measured by Structural Primary Fiscal Balances. Secondly, we found that the effect of IT on FD takes place only on the Developing Countries sub-sample. Thirdly, the positive effect of IT on FD is stronger when the Central Bank –CB- adopts “Partial” IT rather than Full-Fledged IT –FFIT-. Fourthly, the positive effect of IT on FD is heterogeneous: it is conditional to the degree of CB independence, the level of financial deepening, the instability in the terms of trade and the length of exposure to IT -the effect is not immediate but cumulative over time-. Our results are robust to alternative specifications - using Propensity Score Matching Method, "System GMM" estimator, LAD estimator and applying 2SLS on annual data rather than triennial averages data- Our results could contribute importantly to the debate about the relevance of IT adoption by Developing Countries -due to their bad fiscal stances-.The results suggest that these countries could successfully adopt IT and improve their fiscal stances, provided that they adopt it gradually, establish flexible framework allowing them to react temporally to short-term external shocks and accompanies it with a greater independence of their CB and a deepening of their financial systems.Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Discipline, Central Bank, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Public Debt Monetization, Developing Countries.

Does Inflation Targeting Improve Fiscal Discipline? An Empirical Investigation

Based on panel data of 58 countries, of which 22 Inflation Targeters and 36 non Inflation Targeters, over the period 1980-2003, this paper highlights the effect of Inflation Targeting – IT- on Fiscal Discipline –FD-. We make four contributions to the literature. Firstly, by applying the 2SLS on the data, we estimate the effect of IT on central government FD as measured by Structural Primary Fiscal Balances. Secondly, we found that the effect of IT on FD takes place only on the Developing Countries sub-sample. Thirdly, the positive effect of IT on FD is stronger when the Central Bank –CB- adopts “Partial” IT rather than Full-Fledged IT –FFIT-. Fourthly, the positive effect of IT on FD is heterogeneous: it is conditional to the degree of CB independence, the level of financial deepening, the instability in the terms of trade and the length of exposure to IT -the effect is not immediate but cumulative over time-. Our results are robust to alternative specifications - using Propensity Score Matching Method, "System GMM" estimator, LAD estimator and applying 2SLS on annual data rather than triennial averages data- Our results could contribute importantly to the debate about the relevance of IT adoption by Developing Countries -due to their bad fiscal stances-.The results suggest that these countries could successfully adopt IT and improve their fiscal stances, provided that they adopt it gradually, establish flexible framework allowing them to react temporally to short-term external shocks and accompanies it with a greater independence of their CB and a deepening of their financial systems.Inflation Targeting;Fiscal Discipline;Central Bank;Monetary Policy;Fiscal Policy;Public Debt Monetization;Developing Countries.

Is learning for the unit commitment problem a low-hanging fruit?

The blast wave of machine learning and artificial intelligence has also reached the power systems community, and amid the frenzy of methods and black-box tools that have been left in its wake, it is sometimes difficult to perceive a glimmer of Occam’s razor principle. In this letter, we use the unit commitment problem (UCP), an NP- hard mathematical program that is fundamental to power system operations, to show that simplicity must guide any strategy to solve it, in particular those that are based on learning from past UCP instances. To this end, we apply a naive algorithm to produce candidate solutions to the UCP and show, using a variety of realistically sized power systems, that we are able to find optimal or quasi-optimal solutions with remarkable speedups. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work in the technical literature that quantifies how challenging learning the solution of the UCP actually is for real-size power systems. Our claim is thus that any sophistication of the learning method must be backed up with a statistically significant improvement of the results in this letterThis work was supported in part by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through project PID2020-115460GB-I00, by the Anda-lusian Regional Government through project P20-00153, and by the Research Program for Young Talented Researchers of the University of Málaga under Project B1-2019-11. This project has also received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 755705). Finally, the authors thankfully acknowledge the computer re- sources, technical expertise, and assistance provided by the SCBI (Supercomputing and Bioinformatics) center of the University of Málaga. Funding for open access charge: Universidad de Málaga /CBU

Is learning for the unit commitment problem a low-hanging fruit?

The blast wave of machine learning and artificial intelligence has also reached the power systems community, and amid the frenzy of methods and black-box tools that have been left in its wake, it is sometimes difficult to perceive a glimmer of Occam’s razor principle. In this letter, we use the unit commitment problem (UCP), an NP-hard mathematical program that is fundamental to power system operations, to show that simplicity must guide any strategy to solve it, in particular those that are based on learning from past UCP instances. To this end, we apply a naive algorithm to produce candidate solutions to the UCP and show, using a variety of realistically sized power systems, that we are able to find optimal or quasi-optimal solutions with remarkable speedups. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work in the technical literature that quantifies how challenging learning the solution of the UCP actually is for real-size power systems. Our claim is thus that any sophistication of the learning method must be backed up with a statistically significant improvement of the results in this letter.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internaciona

Effects of Forestland Ownership Conversion on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Case of South Korea

This research analyzed the effects of forestland conversion from private to public ownership on greenhouse gas emissions by quantifying the relationship between forestland ownership conversion and deforestation, and then examining the effects of the change in deforestation on greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea. Ex ante simulations forecast greenhouse gas emissions resulting from deforestation rates under the current level of national forestland and three scenarios of increased percentages of national forestland. The findings suggest that increasing the percentage of national forestland would mitigate the increase in the deforestation rate, which in turn would moderate the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.greenhouse gas emissions, Forestland Ownership, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q15, Q23, Q24, Q54,

Can Voting Reduce Welfare? Evidence from the US Telecommunications Sector

Voter turnout is frequently cited as gauging a polity's health. The ease with which electoral members produce political support can, however, retard an economy's productive capacity. For example, while mobile electorates might efficaciously monitor political agents, they may also lack credibility when committing to regulatory policies. Consequently, a "healthy" polity's economy can rest at an inferior discretionary equilibrium. I develop evidence that the US telecommunications sector may indeed have realized such an outcome. This evidence is remarkably difficult to dismiss as an artifact of endogeneity bias.Electoral Institutions, Voter Turnout, Distributive Policy, Regulatory Commitment, Telecommunications Policy

Can Voting Reduce Welfare? Evidence from the US Telecommunications Sector

Voter turnout is frequently cited as gauging a polity's health. The ease with which electoral members produce political support can, however, retard an economy's productive capacity. For example, while mobile electorates might efficaciously monitor political agents, they may also lack credibility when committing to regulatory policies. Consequently, a "healthy" polity's economy can rest at an inferior discretionary equilibrium. I develop evidence that the US telecommunications sector may indeed have realized such an outcome. This evidence is remarkably difficult to dismiss as an artifact of endogeneity bias.Electoral Institutions, Voter Turnout, Distributive Policy, Regulatory Commitment, Telecommunications Policy

Does Inflation Targeting Improve Fiscal Discipline? An Empirical Investigation

Based on panel data of 58 countries, of which 22 Inflation Targeters and 36 non Inflation Targeters, over the period 1980-2003, this paper highlights the effect of Inflation Targeting – IT- on Fiscal Discipline –FD-. We make four contributions to the literature. Firstly, by applying the 2SLS on the data, we estimate the effect of IT on central government FD as measured by Structural Primary Fiscal Balances. Secondly, we found that the effect of IT on FD takes place only on the Developing Countries sub-sample. Thirdly, the positive effect of IT on FD is stronger when the Central Bank –CB- adopts “Partial” IT rather than Full-Fledged IT –FFIT-. Fourthly, the positive effect of IT on FD is heterogeneous: it is conditional to the degree of CB independence, the level of financial deepening, the instability in the terms of trade and the length of exposure to IT -the effect is not immediate but cumulative over time-. Our results are robust to alternative specifications - using Propensity Score Matching Method, "System GMM" estimator, LAD estimator and applying 2SLS on annual data rather than triennial averages data- Our results could contribute importantly to the debate about the relevance of IT adoption by Developing Countries -due to their bad fiscal stances-.The results suggest that these countries could successfully adopt IT and improve their fiscal stances, provided that they adopt it gradually, establish flexible framework allowing them to react temporally to short-term external shocks and accompanies it with a greater independence of their CB and a deepening of their financial systems

Spatial Diffusion of Civil Liberty

This paper studies the existence of spatial diffusion of civil liberty among neighboring countries. For that purpose, we first combine different exploratory space-time data analysis approaches to find that this phenomenon is spatially clustered and that a convergence process is at work among the world countries from 1985 to 2010, with a structural change by the end of the Twentieth century mainly due to the appearance of the Internet. Second, we specify a spatial autoregressive panel data model for a sample of 130 countries, for 1985–2000, and 172 countries, for 2000–2010. Results provide evidence for spatial diffusion of civil liberty, though it is not constant along this time span. The spreading rate is 0.34 in the first sub-period. After 2000, it reduces to 0.21; that is, countries only “catch” 21% of the average changes in their neighbors’ civil liberty levels. Additionally, religious culture, urban agglomeration and GDP explain the levels of civil liberties in the worl