Understanding Strategic Adaptation in Dual-Task Situations as Cognitively Bounded Rational Behavior

In this thesis I explored when people interleave attention in dual-task settings. The hypothesis is that people try to perform in a cognitively bounded rational way. Performance is limited by constraints that come from the task environment and cognition. If, given these constraints, multiple strategies for interleaving tasks are available, then people will interleave tasks in a way that aligns with their local priority objective (Chapter 3), or which maximizes the value of an objective payoff function that evaluates performance (Chapter 4). This hypothesis was tested using a combination of experimental studies and computational cognitive models. Across a series of studies, the interplay between different constraints was investigated. In Chapters 5 and 6, I developed mathematical models to study what task combinations in general allowed for “ideal payoff manipulations” to study task interleaving. The work contributed to the existing literature in four ways: (1) it provided an overarching theory of skilled human dual-task performance and tested this in relatively applied settings, (2) the theory was formalized in computational cognitive models that can predict performance of unobserved strategies and that can bracket the (optimal) performance space, (3) linear and logarithmic tasks were identified as an ideal combination for achieving ideal payoff manipulations, and (4) results demonstrated that in multitasking situations attention is not necessarily interleaved solely at chunk boundaries and other “natural breakpoints”, but that this depends on a person’s priorities. The work has implications for driver distraction research, in that it helps in systematically understanding the performance trade-offs that people face when multitasking. Moreover, the modeling framework could be used for model-based evaluation of new mobile interfaces. Finally, the demonstration that priorities can strongly influence multitasking performance highlights the importance of public safety campaigns that emphasize awareness of driver safety. Limitations and further implications are discussed

The organisation of sociality: a manifesto for a new science of multi-agent systems

In this paper, we pose and motivate a challenge, namely the need for a new science of multi-agent systems. We propose that this new science should be grounded, theoretically on a richer conception of sociality, and methodologically on the extensive use of computational modelling for real-world applications and social simulations. Here, the steps we set forth towards meeting that challenge are mainly theoretical. In this respect, we provide a new model of multi-agent systems that reflects a fully explicated conception of cognition, both at the individual and the collective level. Finally, the mechanisms and principles underpinning the model will be examined with particular emphasis on the contributions provided by contemporary organisation theory

Decision and intuition during organizational change : an evolutionary critique of dual process theory

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to review intuition in the context of organizational change. We argue that intuition as a concept requires attention and its formulation is necessary prior to its application in organizations. The paper provides a critique of Dual Process Theory and highlights shortcomings in organization theorizing of intuition. Design/methodology/approach: The paper is conceptual and provides in-depth theoretical discussions by drawing from the literature on decision and intuition in the context of organizational change. Findings: Investigating whether Dual Process Theory is sufficiently clear, we found ambiguity. Specifically, the current definition provided by Dane and Pratt is not clear in terms of its four sections: (1) The consciousness of non-conscious processing, (2) involving holistic associations, (3) that are produced rapidly, which (4) result in affectively charged judgments. Finally, we note that the Evolutionary perspective is missing and we provide foundational concepts for such a perspective, including the discussion of information templates, memes and genes, as argued by research, condition intuition. Originality/value: The paper finds that an evolutionary perspective develops a picture of intuition as an adaptive resource. This evolutionary perspective is currently absent in research and we provide foundational concepts for such a perspective. We propose specific arguments to highlight the evolutionary perspective

Dividing Attention Between Tasks: Testing Whether Explicit Payoff Functions Elicit Optimal Dual-Task Performance

We test people's ability to optimize performance across two concurrent tasks. Participants performed a number entry task while controlling a randomly moving cursor with a joystick. Participants received explicit feedback on their performance on these tasks in the form of a single combined score. This payoff function was varied between conditions to change the value of one task relative to the other. We found that participants adapted their strategy for interleaving the two tasks, by varying how long they spent on one task before switching to the other, in order to achieve the near maximum payoff available in each condition. In a second experiment, we show that this behavior is learned quickly (within 2-3 min over several discrete trials) and remained stable for as long as the payoff function did not change. The results of this work show that people are adaptive and flexible in how they prioritize and allocate attention in a dual-task setting. However, it also demonstrates some of the limits regarding people's ability to optimize payoff functions

Epistemological Foundations for Neuroeconomics

Neuroeconomics is an emerging field crossing neuroscientific data, the use of brain-imaging tools, experimental and behavioral economics, and an attempt at a better understanding of the cognitive assumptions that underlie theoretical predictive economic models. In this paper the authors try two things: 1) To assess the epistemological biases that affect Neuroeconomics as it is currently done. A number of significant experiments are discussed in that perspective. 2) To imagine an original way - apart from what is already being done - to run experiments in brain-imaging that are relevant to the discussion of rationality assumptions at the core of economic theory.Neuroeconomics, Rationality Assumptions, Abduction

Decision-making between rationality and intuition: effectiveness conditions and solutions to enhance decision efficacy

Decision-making, one process, many theories: a multidisciplinary literature review. How individual and environmental factors interact and influence the effectiveness of strategic decisions through rational and intuitive dynamics. Mentoring and the promotion of self-confidence in decision-making: the role of cognitive awareness and expertise building through the lenses of rationality and intuition

Social Dilemmas, Revisited from a Heuristics Perspective

The standard tool for analysing social dilemmas is game theory. They are reconstructed as prisoner dilemma games. This is helpful for understanding the incentive structure. Yet this analysis is based on the classic homo oeconomicus assumptions. In many real world dilemma situations, these assumptions are misleading. A case in point is the contribution of households to climate change. Decisions about using cars instead of public transport, or about extensive air conditioning, are typically not based on ad hoc calculation. Rather, individuals rely on situational heuristics for the purpose. This paper does two things: it offers a model of heuristics, in the interest of making behaviour that is guided by heuristics comparable to behaviour based on rational reasoning. Based on this model, the paper determines the implications for the definition of social dilemmas. In some contexts, the social dilemma vanishes. In other contexts, it must be understood, and hence solved, in substantially different ways.Heuristic, Social Dilemma, Public Good, Prisoner’s Dilemma

Behavioural Economics: Classical and Modern

In this paper, the origins and development of behavioural economics, beginning with the pioneering works of Herbert Simon (1953) and Ward Edwards (1954), is traced, described and (critically) discussed, in some detail. Two kinds of behavioural economics – classical and modern – are attributed, respectively, to the two pioneers. The mathematical foundations of classical behavioural economics is identified, largely, to be in the theory of computation and computational complexity; the corresponding mathematical basis for modern behavioural economics is, on the other hand, claimed to be a notion of subjective probability (at least at its origins in the works of Ward Edwards). The economic theories of behavior, challenging various aspects of 'orthodox' theory, were decisively influenced by these two mathematical underpinnings of the two theoriesClassical Behavioural Economics, Modern Behavioural Economics, Subjective Probability, Model of Computation, Computational Complexity. Subjective Expected Utility

IMP: it’s time to get emotional! Understanding the role of negative emotions in dynamic decision-making processes

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the current industrial marketing and purchasing (IMP) research that has a vague positioning of the bounded rationality of an actor. By borrowing insights from other disciplines, this study aims to develop the IMP approach further by acknowledging the importance of individuals who act and make decisions on behalf of their companies.Design/methodology/approach:This study is conceptual. By examining the IMP studies in combination with decision-making literature from behavioral economics and psychology, this paper provides a new understanding of the phenomenon in question.FindingsThis study demonstrates that individual decision-making is not as rational as has previously been thought, thus indicating the bounded rationality of the actor. After examining the most common negative emotions that influence the decision-making process, the paper presents a research agenda. It provides a series of research topics and methodological choices for future IMP research endeavors.Research limitations/implications: As this paper is conceptual, empirical research is needed to examine the role of negative emotions in dynamic decision-making processes.Practical implications: Managerial implications of this paper are focused on providing instructions for managers on how to deal with negative emotions in dynamic decision-making processes.Originality/value: To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is one of the first papers that attempts to connect the IMP studies with the dynamics of decision-making by examining negative emotions in the business world