Applications of Expert Systems in Transport

BACKGROUND Experienced judgement and specialist knowledge are essential to the proper specification, understanding and interpretation of data and computer analyses. The human expert has traditionally supplied this knowledge and judgement with the computer doing the necessary number-crunching. However, artificial intelligence (AI) research provides ways of embodying this knowledge and judgement within computer programs. Despite an early lead in the field, UK research and developmnent into AI techniques was held back in the 1970s when the then Science Research Council took the view that the 'combinatorial explosion' of possibilities would be an insurmountable obstacle to AI developent. But in America and Japan research continued, and the surge of interest in the 1980s has been a consequence of the 'Fifth Generation Computer' research programme initiated by Japan (Feigenbaum and McCorduck; 1984). This led in Europe to the ESPRIT programme of advanced technology research, and in the UK to the Alvey programme (Department of Industry, 1982). As a result, all sectors of industry have been encouraged to consider how such advanced technology can be applied, and the transport industry is no exception. This paper sets out to explain some of the relevant techniques in simple terms, and to describe a number of situations in which transport planning and operations might be helped through their use, illustrating this by reference to the pioneering work going on in transport applications in the USA, Britain and Australia

Adaptation of WASH Services Delivery to Climate Change and Other Sources of Risk and Uncertainty

This report urges WASH sector practitioners to take more seriously the threat of climate change and the consequences it could have on their work. By considering climate change within a risk and uncertainty framework, the field can use the multitude of approaches laid out here to adequately protect itself against a range of direct and indirect impacts. Eleven methods and tools for this specific type of risk management are described, including practical advice on how to implement them successfully

A novel planning approach for the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) sector: the use of object-oriented bayesian networks

Conventional approaches to design and plan water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) interventions are not suitable for capturing the increasing complexity of the context in which these services are delivered. Multidimensional tools are needed to unravel the links between access to basic services and the socio-economic drivers of poverty. This paper applies an object-oriented Bayesian network to reflect the main issues that determine access to WaSH services. A national Program in Kenya has been analyzed as initial case study. The main findings suggest that the proposed approach is able to accommodate local conditions and to represent an accurate reflection of the complexities of WaSH issues, incorporating the uncertainty intrinsic to service delivery processes. Results indicate those areas in which policy makers should prioritize efforts and resources. Similarly, the study shows the effects of sector interventions, as well as the foreseen impact of various scenarios related to the national Program.Preprin

Freshwater ecosystem services in mining regions : modelling options for policy development support

The ecosystem services (ES) approach offers an integrated perspective of social-ecological systems, suitable for holistic assessments of mining impacts. Yet for ES models to be policy-relevant, methodological consensus in mining contexts is needed. We review articles assessing ES in mining areas focusing on freshwater components and policy support potential. Twenty-six articles were analysed concerning (i) methodological complexity (data types, number of parameters, processes and ecosystem-human integration level) and (ii) potential applicability for policy development (communication of uncertainties, scenario simulation, stakeholder participation and management recommendations). Articles illustrate mining impacts on ES through valuation exercises mostly. However, the lack of ground-and surface-water measurements, as well as insufficient representation of the connectivity among soil, water and humans, leave room for improvements. Inclusion of mining-specific environmental stressors models, increasing resolution of topographies, determination of baseline ES patterns and inclusion of multi-stakeholder perspectives are advantageous for policy support. We argue that achieving more holistic assessments exhorts practitioners to aim for high social-ecological connectivity using mechanistic models where possible and using inductive methods only where necessary. Due to data constraints, cause-effect networks might be the most feasible and best solution. Thus, a policy-oriented framework is proposed, in which data science is directed to environmental modelling for analysis of mining impacts on water ES

Towards a transparent, credible, evidence-based decision-making process of new drug listing on the Hong Kong Hospital Authority Drug Formulary: challenges and suggestions

The aim of this article is to describe the process, evaluation criteria, and possible outcomes of decision-making for new drugs listed in the Hong Kong Hospital Authority Drug Formulary in comparison to the health technology assessment (HTA) policy overseas. Details of decision-making processes including the new drug listing submission, Drug Advisory Committee (DAC) meeting, and procedures prior to and following the meeting, were extracted from the official Hong Kong Hospital Authority drug formulary management website and manual. Publicly-available information related to the new drug decision-making process for five HTA agencies [the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC), the Australia Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC), the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH), and the New Zealand Pharmaceutical Management Agency (PHARMAC)] were reviewed and retrieved from official documents from public domains. The DAC is in charge of systemically and critically appraising new drugs before they are listed on the formulary, reviewing submitted applications, and making the decision to list the drug based on scientific evidence to which safety, efficacy, and cost-effectiveness are the primary considerations. When compared with other HTA agencies, transparency of the decision-making process of the DAC, the relevance of clinical and health economic evidence, and the lack of health economic and methodological input of submissions are the major challenges to the new-drug listing policy in Hong Kong. Despite these challenges, this review provides suggestions for the establishment of a more transparent, credible, and evidence-based decision-making process in the Hong Kong Hospital Authority Drug Formulary. Proposals for improvement in the listing of new drugs in the formulary should be a priority of healthcare reforms

An evaluation of water treatment technologies for sustainable rural communities

This paper presents the initial stages of research funded by the Scottish Government to enable an evaluation of the suitability of drinking water treatment technologies at small to medium scales to facilitate the application of the Scottish Government’s Sustainable Rural Communities concept. The research included a technology scan to identify relevant drinking water treatment technologies suitable for small and medium sized rural communities in Scotland and an expert stakeholder workshop to verify and refine the technology inventory. The stakeholder workshop was also used to identify suitable selection criteria for Sustainable Rural Community drinking water projects. The criteria can be used in subsequent multi-stakeholder decision making for the most sustainable treatment options for specific communities. An explanation is provided on the methodology and the types of information that were collected and the outcomes of the research. <br/

The potential of a GIS-based scoping system: An Israeli proposal and case study

In the environmental impact assessment (EIA) lifecycle, scoping is regarded as the most important stage for the quality of the entire process. Even though many EIA methods exist, only a few of them are specifically suited for scoping. Despite the well-acknowledged potential of geographical information systems (CIS) for EIA and their seemingly widespread use, the applicability of GIS for scoping has not been analyzed sufficiently. This article advances a GIS-based scoping method and discusses the conditions necessary for its utilization. Two specific issues are addressed: the ability of a GIS-based system to identify the pertinent environmental effects on the basis of readily available information under stringent time and budget constraints, and the institutional infrastructure needed for such a system to operate effectively. These issues are analyzed in a case study conducted in Israel. In this case study, the proposed GIS-based scoping system identified all the main effects found independently in a comprehensive environmental impact statement (EIS), as well as issues not analyzed in the EIS. A centralized institutional scoping structure, whereby EIS guidelines are issued by a single entity, is found to be important for the operation of such a system, because it can enjoy the economies of scale and scope involved in setting up and operating a GIS system for scoping purposes

Massachusetts Offshore Wind Future Cost Study

The Special Initiative on Offshore Wind is an independent project at the University of Delaware's College of Earth, Ocean and Environment that supports the advancement of offshore wind as part of a comprehensive solution to the most pressing energy problems facing the United States.  The Special Initiative on Offshore Wind provides expertise, analysis, information sharing, and strategic partnership with industry, advocacy and government stakeholders to build understanding and drive the deployment of offshore wind

A literature review on the use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk analysis

Risk assessment is part of the decision making process in many fields of discipline, such as engineering, public health, environment, program management, regulatory policy, and finance. There has been considerable debate over the philosophical and methodological treatment of risk in the past few decades, ranging from its definition and classification to methods of its assessment. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) specifically deals with events represented by low probabilities of occurring with high levels of unfavorable consequences. Expert judgment is often a critical source of information in PRA, since empirical data on the variables of interest are rarely available. The author reviews the literature on the use of expert opinion in PRA, in particular on the approaches to eliciting and aggregating experts'assessments. The literature suggests that the methods by which expert opinions are collected and combined have a significant effect on the resulting estimates. The author discusses two types of approaches to eliciting and aggregating expert judgments-behavioral and mathematical approaches, with the emphasis on the latter. It is generally agreed that mathematical approaches tend to yield more accurate estimates than behavioral approaches. After a short description of behavioral approaches, the author discusses mathematical approaches in detail, presenting three aggregation models: non-Bayesian axiomatic models, Bayesian models, andpsychological scaling models. She also discusses issues of stochastic dependence.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,ICT Policy and Strategies,Public Health Promotion,Enterprise Development&Reform,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,ICT Policy and Strategies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Science Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks