Uncertainty Analysis for the Classification of Multispectral Satellite Images Using SVMs and SOMs

Abstract: Classification of multispectral remotely sensed data with textural features is investigated with a special focus on uncertainty analysis in the produced land-cover maps. Much effort has already been directed into the research of satisfactory accuracy-assessment techniques in image classification, but a common approach is not yet universally adopted. We look at the relationship between hard accuracy and the uncertainty on the produced answers, introducing two measures based on maximum probability and a quadratic entropy. Their impact differs depending on the type of classifier. In this paper, we deal with two different classification strategies, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kohonen's self-organizingmaps (SOMs), both suitably modified to give soft answers. Once the multiclass probability answer vector is available for each pixel in the image, we studied the behavior of the overall classification accuracy as a function of the uncertainty associated with each vector, given a hard-labeled test set. The experimental results show that the SVM with one-versus-one architecture and linear kernel clearly outperforms the other supervised approaches in terms of overall accuracy. On the other hand, our analysis reveals that the proposed SOM-based classifier, despite its unsupervised learning procedure, is able to provide soft answers which are the best candidates for a fusion with supervised results

Mapping Cropland abandonment in the Aral Sea Basin with MODIS time series

© 2018 by the authors. Cropland abandonment is globally widespread and has strong repercussions for regional food security and the environment. Statistics suggest that one of the hotspots of abandoned cropland is located in the drylands of the Aral Sea Basin (ASB), which covers parts of post-Soviet Central Asia, Afghanistan and Iran. To date, the exact spatial and temporal extents of abandoned cropland remain unclear, which hampers land-use planning. Abandoned land is a potentially valuable resource for alternative land uses. Here, we mapped the abandoned cropland in the drylands of the ASB with a time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2003-2016. To overcome the restricted ability of a single classifier to accurately map land-use classes across large areas and agro-environmental gradients, "stratum-specific" classifiers were calibrated and classification results were fused based on a locally weighted decision fusion approach. Next, the agro-ecological suitability of abandoned cropland areas was evaluated. The stratum-specific classification approach yielded an overall accuracy of 0.879, which was significantly more accurate (p < 0.05) than a "global" classification without stratification, which had an accuracy of 0.811. In 2016, the classification results showed that 13% (1.15 Mha) of the observed irrigated cropland in the ASB was idle (abandoned). Cropland abandonment occurred mostly in the Amudarya and Syrdarya downstream regions and was associated with degraded land and areas prone to water stress. Despite the almost twofold population growth and increasing food demand in the ASB area from 1990 to 2016, abandoned cropland was also located in areas with high suitability for farming. The map of abandoned cropland areas provides a novel basis for assessing the causes leading to abandoned cropland in the ASB. This contributes to assessing the suitability of abandoned cropland for food or bioenergy production, carbon storage, or assessing the environmental trade-offs and social constraints of recultivation

Mapping Cropland Abandonment in the Aral Sea Basin with MODIS Time Series

Cropland abandonment is globally widespread and has strong repercussions for regional food security and the environment. Statistics suggest that one of the hotspots of abandoned cropland is located in the drylands of the Aral Sea Basin (ASB), which covers parts of post-Soviet Central Asia, Afghanistan and Iran. To date, the exact spatial and temporal extents of abandoned cropland remain unclear, which hampers land-use planning. Abandoned land is a potentially valuable resource for alternative land uses. Here, we mapped the abandoned cropland in the drylands of the ASB with a time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2003–2016. To overcome the restricted ability of a single classifier to accurately map land-use classes across large areas and agro-environmental gradients, “stratum-specific” classifiers were calibrated and classification results were fused based on a locally weighted decision fusion approach. Next, the agro-ecological suitability of abandoned cropland areas was evaluated. The stratum-specific classification approach yielded an overall accuracy of 0.879, which was significantly more accurate ( p &lt; 0.05) than a “global” classification without stratification, which had an accuracy of 0.811. In 2016, the classification results showed that 13% (1.15 Mha) of the observed irrigated cropland in the ASB was idle (abandoned). Cropland abandonment occurred mostly in the Amudarya and Syrdarya downstream regions and was associated with degraded land and areas prone to water stress. Despite the almost twofold population growth and increasing food demand in the ASB area from 1990 to 2016, abandoned cropland was also located in areas with high suitability for farming. The map of abandoned cropland areas provides a novel basis for assessing the causes leading to abandoned cropland in the ASB. This contributes to assessing the suitability of abandoned cropland for food or bioenergy production, carbon storage, or assessing the environmental trade-offs and social constraints of recultivation

VPRS-based regional decision fusion of CNN and MRF classifications for very fine resolution remotely sensed images

Recent advances in computer vision and pattern recognition have demonstrated the superiority of deep neural networks using spatial feature representation, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN), for image classification. However, any classifier, regardless of its model structure (deep or shallow), involves prediction uncertainty when classifying spatially and spectrally complicated very fine spatial resolution (VFSR) imagery. We propose here to characterise the uncertainty distribution of CNN classification and integrate it into a regional decision fusion to increase classification accuracy. Specifically, a variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is proposed to quantify the uncertainty within CNN classifications of VFSR imagery, and partition this uncertainty into positive regions (correct classifications) and non-positive regions (uncertain or incorrect classifications). Those “more correct” areas were trusted by the CNN, whereas the uncertain areas were rectified by a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)-based Markov random field (MLP-MRF) classifier to provide crisp and accurate boundary delineation. The proposed MRF-CNN fusion decision strategy exploited the complementary characteristics of the two classifiers based on VPRS uncertainty description and classification integration. The effectiveness of the MRF-CNN method was tested in both urban and rural areas of southern England as well as Semantic Labelling datasets. The MRF-CNN consistently outperformed the benchmark MLP, SVM, MLP-MRF and CNN and the baseline methods. This research provides a regional decision fusion framework within which to gain the advantages of model-based CNN, while overcoming the problem of losing effective resolution and uncertain prediction at object boundaries, which is especially pertinent for complex VFSR image classification

Land change and carbon dynamics in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is a significant source of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Quantifying land use changes and associated emissions is critical for reporting and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. In the Colombian Amazon, areas of forest conversion estimated at biennial intervals using a combination of dense time series of Landsat observations and statistical estimators based on reference data indicate that deforestation is modest (87 kha year-1) relative to surrounding countries and regions. Other land cover and change areas can also be estimated at biennial intervals, including a land cover class representing regrowing secondary forest, which is on average five times larger than the forest-to-pasture conversion. Areas of gain and loss of secondary forest are very small for this region relative to deforestation. Errors in the detection of change negatively impact the precision of the land change area estimates. New methods estimate the uncertainty associated with maps of land change, represented as probability maps of omission and commission of change. These probabilities are higher in the deforestation frontier of the study area, where the fine spatial scale of the disturbances and the low temporal data density make it challenging to detect the changes accurately. The presented methods improve our ability to integrate uncertainty into applications that make use land change maps, such as spatial carbon models. Methods to estimate emissions based on bias-adjusted areas of land change show that net carbon emissions average 10 Tg year-1 (0.22 Mg ha-1 year-1) in the entire study area, and can be further disaggregated by the land cover contributing to the emissions or removals. This dissertation shows that the conversion from forest to pastures has been the largest forest loss pathway in the Colombian Amazon for almost two decades. While there is a small carbon offset due to sequestration by regrowing forests, conversion to pasture is also the main source of carbon emissions associated with land change. The methods and results presented in this dissertation demonstrate the potential of the Landsat archive to enable the quantification of land changes, their uncertainty, and their associated carbon emissions, even in areas with relatively infrequent cloud-free observations

Error Propagation Analysis for Remotely Sensed Aboveground Biomass

Edited version available. Full version will remain embargoed due to copyright. AS DCAbstract Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) assessment using remote sensing has been an active area of research since the 1970s. However, improvements in the reported accuracy of wide scale studies remain relatively small. Therefore, there is a need to improve error analysis to answer the question: Why is AGB assessment accuracy still under doubt? This project aimed to develop and implement a systematic quantitative methodology to analyse the uncertainty of remotely sensed AGB, including all perceptible error types and reducing the associated costs and computational effort required in comparison to conventional methods. An accuracy prediction tool was designed based on previous study inputs and their outcome accuracy. The methodology used included training a neural network tool to emulate human decision making for the optimal trade-off between cost and accuracy for forest biomass surveys. The training samples were based on outputs from a number of previous biomass surveys, including 64 optical data based studies, 62 Lidar data based studies, 100 Radar data based studies, and 50 combined data studies. The tool showed promising convergent results of medium production ability. However, it might take many years until enough studies will be published to provide sufficient samples for accurate predictions. To provide field data for the next steps, 38 plots within six sites were scanned with a Leica ScanStation P20 terrestrial laser scanner. The Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) data analysis used existing techniques such as 3D voxels and applied allometric equations, alongside exploring new features such as non-plane voxel layers, parent-child relationships between layers and skeletonising tree branches to speed up the overall processing time. The results were two maps for each plot, a tree trunk map and branch map. An error analysis tool was designed to work on three stages. Stage 1 uses a Taylor method to propagate errors from remote sensing data for the products that were used as direct inputs to the biomass assessment process. Stage 2 applies a Monte Carlo method to propagate errors from the direct remote sensing and field inputs to the mathematical model. Stage 3 includes generating an error estimation model that is trained based on the error behaviour of the training samples. The tool was applied to four biomass assessment scenarios, and the results show that the relative error of AGB represented by the RMSE of the model fitting was high (20-35% of the AGB) in spite of the relatively high correlation coefficients. About 65% of the RMSE is due to the remote sensing and field data errors, with the remaining 35% due to the ill-defined relationship between the remote sensing data and AGB. The error component that has the largest influence was the remote sensing error (50-60% of the propagated error), with both the spatial and spectral error components having a clear influence on the total error. The influence of field data errors was close to the remote sensing data errors (40-50% of the propagated error) and its spatial and non-spatial Overall, the study successfully traced the errors and applied certainty-scenarios using the software tool designed for this purpose. The applied novel approach allowed for a relatively fast solution when mapping errors outside the fieldwork areas.HCED iraq, Middle Technical Universit

Deep learning for land cover and land use classification

Recent advances in sensor technologies have witnessed a vast amount of very fine spatial resolution (VFSR) remotely sensed imagery being collected on a daily basis. These VFSR images present fine spatial details that are spectrally and spatially complicated, thus posing huge challenges in automatic land cover (LC) and land use (LU) classification. Deep learning reignited the pursuit of artificial intelligence towards a general purpose machine to be able to perform any human-related tasks in an automated fashion. This is largely driven by the wave of excitement in deep machine learning to model the high-level abstractions through hierarchical feature representations without human-designed features or rules, which demonstrates great potential in identifying and characterising LC and LU patterns from VFSR imagery. In this thesis, a set of novel deep learning methods are developed for LC and LU image classification based on the deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) as an example. Several difficulties, however, are encountered when trying to apply the standard pixel-wise CNN for LC and LU classification using VFSR images, including geometric distortions, boundary uncertainties and huge computational redundancy. These technical challenges for LC classification were solved either using rule-based decision fusion or through uncertainty modelling using rough set theory. For land use, an object-based CNN method was proposed, in which each segmented object (a group of homogeneous pixels) was sampled and predicted by CNN with both within-object and between-object information. LU was, thus, classified with high accuracy and efficiency. Both LC and LU formulate a hierarchical ontology at the same geographical space, and such representations are modelled by their joint distribution, in which LC and LU are classified simultaneously through iteration. These developed deep learning techniques achieved by far the highest classification accuracy for both LC and LU, up to around 90% accuracy, about 5% higher than the existing deep learning methods, and 10% greater than traditional pixel-based and object-based approaches. This research made a significant contribution in LC and LU classification through deep learning based innovations, and has great potential utility in a wide range of geospatial applications