A robust fuzzy possibilistic AHP approach for partner selection in international strategic alliance

The international strategic alliance is an inevitable solution for making competitive advantage and reducing the risk in today’s business environment. Partner selection is an important part in success of partnerships, and meanwhile it is a complicated decision because of various dimensions of the problem and inherent conflicts of stockholders. The purpose of this paper is to provide a practical approach to the problem of partner selection in international strategic alliances, which fulfills the gap between theories of inter-organizational relationships and quantitative models. Thus, a novel Robust Fuzzy Possibilistic AHP approach is proposed for combining the benefits of two complementary theories of inter-organizational relationships named, (1) Resource-based view, and (2) Transaction-cost theory and considering Fit theory as the perquisite of alliance success. The Robust Fuzzy Possibilistic AHP approach is a noveldevelopment of Interval-AHP technique employing robust formulation; aimed at handling the ambiguity of the problem and let the use of intervals as pairwise judgments. The proposed approach was compared with existing approaches, and the results show that it provides the best quality solutions in terms of minimum error degree. Moreover, the framework implemented in a case study and its applicability were discussed

The Suitability Rule and Economic Theory

The published rules of both the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) provide that a broker or dealer in the securities market may recommend the purchase of a security only when there is a reasonable basis for believing that the security is suitable for the customer

Twenty years of linear programming based portfolio optimization

a b s t r a c t Markowitz formulated the portfolio optimization problem through two criteria: the expected return and the risk, as a measure of the variability of the return. The classical Markowitz model uses the variance as the risk measure and is a quadratic programming problem. Many attempts have been made to linearize the portfolio optimization problem. Several different risk measures have been proposed which are computationally attractive as (for discrete random variables) they give rise to linear programming (LP) problems. About twenty years ago, the mean absolute deviation (MAD) model drew a lot of attention resulting in much research and speeding up development of other LP models. Further, the LP models based on the conditional value at risk (CVaR) have a great impact on new developments in portfolio optimization during the first decade of the 21st century. The LP solvability may become relevant for real-life decisions when portfolios have to meet side constraints and take into account transaction costs or when large size instances have to be solved. In this paper we review the variety of LP solvable portfolio optimization models presented in the literature, the real features that have been modeled and the solution approaches to the resulting models, in most of the cases mixed integer linear programming (MILP) models. We also discuss the impact of the inclusion of the real features

Contributions to robust and bilevel optimization models for decision-making

Los problemas de optimización combinatorios han sido ampliamente estudiados en la literatura especializada desde mediados del siglo pasado. No obstante, en las últimas décadas ha habido un cambio de paradigma en el tratamiento de problemas cada vez más realistas, en los que se incluyen fuentes de aleatoriedad e incertidumbre en los datos, múltiples criterios de optimización y múltiples niveles de decisión. Esta tesis se desarrolla en este contexto. El objetivo principal de la misma es el de construir modelos de optimización que incorporen aspectos inciertos en los parámetros que de nen el problema así como el desarrollo de modelos que incluyan múltiples niveles de decisión. Para dar respuesta a problemas con incertidumbre usaremos los modelos Minmax Regret de Optimización Robusta, mientras que las situaciones con múltiples decisiones secuenciales serán analizadas usando Optimización Binivel. En los Capítulos 2, 3 y 4 se estudian diferentes problemas de decisión bajo incertidumbre a los que se dará una solución robusta que proteja al decisor minimizando el máximo regret en el que puede incurrir. El criterio minmax regret analiza el comportamiento del modelo bajo distintos escenarios posibles, comparando su e ciencia con la e ciencia óptima bajo cada escenario factible. El resultado es una solución con una eviciencia lo más próxima posible a la óptima en el conjunto de las posibles realizaciones de los parámetros desconocidos. En el Capítulo 2 se estudia un problema de diseño de redes en el que los costes, los pares proveedor-cliente y las demandas pueden ser inciertos, y además se utilizan poliedros para modelar la incertidumbre, permitiendo de este modo relaciones de dependencia entre los parámetros. En el Capítulo 3 se proponen, en el contexto de la secuenciación de tareas o la computación grid, versiones del problema del camino más corto y del problema del viajante de comercio en el que el coste de recorrer un arco depende de la posición que este ocupa en el camino, y además algunos de los parámetros que de nen esta función de costes son inciertos. La combinación de la dependencia en los costes y la incertidumbre en los parámetros da lugar a dependencias entre los parámetros desconocidos, que obliga a modelar los posibles escenarios usando conjuntos más generales que los hipercubos, habitualmente utilizados en este contexto. En este capítulo, usaremos poliedros generales para este cometido. Para analizar este primer bloque de aplicaciones, en el Capítulo 4, se analiza un modelo de optimización en el que el conjunto de posibles escenarios puede ser alterado mediante la realización de inversiones en el sistema. En los problemas estudiados en este primer bloque, cada decisión factible es evaluada en base a la reacción más desfavorable que pueda darse en el sistema. En los Capítulos 5 y 6 seguiremos usando esta idea pero ahora se supondrá que esa reacción a la decisión factible inicial está en manos de un adversario o follower. Estos dos capítulos se centran en el estudio de diferentes modelos binivel. La Optimización Binivel aborda problemas en los que existen dos niveles de decisión, con diferentes decisores en cada uno ellos y la decisión se toma de manera jerárquica. En concreto, en el Capítulo 5 se estudian distintos modelos de jación de precios en el contexto de selección de carteras de valores, en los que el intermediario nanciero, que se convierte en decisor, debe jar los costes de invertir en determinados activos y el inversor debe seleccionar su cartera de acuerdo a distintos criterios. Finalmente, en el Capítulo 6 se estudia un problema de localización en el que hay distintos decisores, con intereses contrapuestos, que deben determinar secuencialmente la ubicación de distintas localizaciones. Este modelo de localización binivel se puede aplicar en contextos como la localización de servicios no deseados o peligrosos (plantas de reciclaje, centrales térmicas, etcétera) o en problemas de ataque-defensa. Todos estos modelos se abordan mediante el uso de técnicas de Programación Matemática. De cada uno de ellos se analizan algunas de sus propiedades y se desarrollan formulaciones y algoritmos, que son examinados también desde el punto de vista computacional. Además, se justica la validez de los modelos desde un enfoque de las aplicaciones prácticas. Los modelos presentados en esta tesis comparten la peculiaridad de requerir resolver distintos problemas de optimización encajados.Combinatorial optimization problems have been extensively studied in the specialized literature since the mid-twentieth century. However, in recent decades, there has been a paradigm shift to the treatment of ever more realistic problems, which include sources of randomness and uncertainty in the data, multiple optimization criteria and multiple levels of decision. This thesis concerns the development of such concepts. Our objective is to study optimization models that incorporate uncertainty elements in the parameters de ning the model, as well as the development of optimization models integrating multiple decision levels. In order to consider problems under uncertainty, we use Minmax Regret models from Robust Optimization; whereas the multiplicity and hierarchy in the decision levels is addressed using Bilevel Optimization. In Chapters 2, 3 and 4, we study di erent decision problems under uncertainty to which we give a robust solution that protects the decision-maker minimizing the maximum regret that may occur. This robust criterion analyzes the performance of the system under multiple possible scenarios, comparing its e ciency with the optimum one under each feasible scenario. We obtain, as a result, a solution whose e ciency is as close as possible to the optimal one in the set of feasible realizations of the uncertain parameters. In Chapter 2, we study a network design problem in which the costs, the pairs supplier-customer, and the demands can take uncertain values. Furthermore, the uncertainty in the parameters is modeled via polyhedral sets, thereby allowing relationships among the uncertain parameters. In Chapter 3, we propose time-dependent versions of the shortest path and traveling salesman problems in which the costs of traversing an arc depends on the relative position that the arc occupies in the path. Moreover, we assume that some of the parameters de ning these costs can be uncertain. These models can be applied in the context of task sequencing or grid computing. The incorporation of time-dependencies together with uncertainties in the parameters gives rise to dependencies among the uncertain parameters, which require modeling the possible scenarios using more general sets than hypercubes, normally used in this context. In this chapter, we use general polyhedral sets with this purpose. To nalize this rst block of applications, in Chapter 4, we analyze an optimization model in which the set of possible scenarios can be modi ed by making some investments in the system. In the problems studied in this rst block, each feasible decision is evaluated based on the most unfavorable possible reaction of the system. In Chapters 5 and 6, we will still follow this idea, but assuming that the reaction to the initial feasible decision will be held by a follower or an adversary, instead of assuming the most unfavorable one. These two chapters are focused on the study of some bilevel models. Bilevel Optimization addresses optimization problems with multiple decision levels, di erent decision-makers in each level and a hierarchical decision order. In particular, in Chapter 5, we study some price setting problems in the context of portfolio selection. In these problems, the nancial intermediary becomes a decisionmaker and sets the transaction costs for investing in some securities, and the investor chooses her portfolio according to di erent criteria. Finally, in Chapter 6, we study a location problem with several decision-makers and opposite interests, that must set, sequentially, some location points. This bilevel location model can be applied in practical applications such as the location of semi-obnoxious facilities (power or electricity plants, waste dumps, etc.) or interdiction problems. All these models are stated from a Mathematical Programming perspective, analyzing their properties and developing formulations and algorithms, that are tested from a computational point of view. Furthermore, we pay special attention to justifying the validity of the models from the practical applications point of view. The models presented in this thesis share the characteristic of involving the resolution of nested optimization problems.Premio Extraordinario de Doctorado U

Competitive advantages created by market strategies and the economic cycle in commercial real estate investment

Economic cycles have a strong impact on the profitability and operations of modern markets. Even commercial real estate investments which have been traditionally considered to produce steady returns with a relatively low volatility have encountered large difficulties especially during the last decade to generate returns which succeed their return expectations. Simultaneously the rapid development of the Finnish commercial real estate investment market has woken up the interest of even increasing amount of investors which has further increased the competition between different investors actively participating in the market notably. A proportion of the investors have managed to perform better than their competitors during different phases of the economic cycle by creating and utilizing so called competitive advantages in relation to their competitors. This master’s thesis focuses on studying the competitive advantages in relation to fluctuations of the economic cycle of different domestic and foreign investors which have been active in the Finnish commercial real estate market between the years 2006 and 2012. This thesis includes a literature review of competitive advantages in general and furthermore applies these theories to commercial real estate investment. Competitive advantages of different investors are observed in relation to the organizations’ internal characteristics and cost efficiencies considering the discounted cash flow analysis which is typically used for valuating various real estate investments. The research’s empirical part studies the transactions data of the years 2006, 2009 and 2012 resembling different phases of the economic cycle. Furthermore it recognizes and analyses the investment strategies of different investors in relation to the transactions data in order to determine the actual competiveness of investors with different organization types during the observation years. The assumption behind this research is that in order to successfully purchase assets the investor is required to have relative competitive advantages compared to other investors participating in the purchase process in order to be able to place the asset's highest purchase bid. According to research results the competiveness of investors with different organization types indeed varies depending on the current dominant phase of the economic cycle. Despite this the results show that domestic publicly listed commercial real estate investors are extremely competitive during all the observation years with a significant difference to other organization types. Furthermore the theory discussed in this thesis supports the fact that publicly listed commercial real estate investment companies possess good conditions to perform very competitively in the markets

DATA-DRIVEN DECISION-MAKING AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE CORPORATE CASH MANAGEMENT PROBLEM

Esta tesis investiga el problema de gestión de tesorería desde un punto de vista multidimensional. La gestión de tesorería trata de equilibrar la cantidad que se mantiene en efectivo y la que se dedica a inversiones a corto plazo. Normalmente, los tesoreros toman decisiones basándose en el nivel óptimo de tesorería por motivos operativos y de precaución. En esta tesis exploramos las oportunidades para mejorar la toma decisiones derivadas de modelar la incertidumbre presente en los flujos de caja con la ayuda de procedimientos basados en datos en un entorno multiobjetivo. Por un lado, los tesoreros pueden conseguir ahorros a través de la previsión de tesorería. Para ello, realizamos un estudio empírico con el objetivo de aprovechar las más recientes técnicas de aprendizaje automático como paso clave para conectar el análisis de los datos disponibles con los procesos de optimización en la gestión de tesorería. Por otro lado, los tesoreros pueden estar interesados no solo en el coste sino también en al riesgo asociado a sus decisiones. Por esta razón, tratamos el problema de gestión de tesorería desde una perspectiva multiobjetivo, considerando tanto el coste como el riesgo. Además, debido a la cambiante situación financiera actual, exploramos la selección de modelos de gestión de tesorería en función de diferentes condiciones operativas y de su robustez. También demostramos la utilidad de las previsiones a través de un nuevo modelo de gestión de tesorería que mejora el estado del arte al garantizar soluciones óptimas. Como la mayoría de las empresas trabaja con sistemas de tesorería con múltiples cuentas bancarias, desarrollamos un marco para la formulación y solución del problema de gestión de tesorería con múltiples cuentas bancarias. Finalmente, en un intento de acercar teoría y práctica, también ofrecemos una librería de software en Python para usuarios interesados en la construcción de sistemas de ayuda a la toma de decisiones en gestión de tesorería.This thesis investigates the cash management problem from a multidimensional perspective. Cash management focuses on finding the balance between cash holdings and short-term investments. Typically, cash managers make decisions based usually on a firm's optimal cash balance for operational and precautionary purposes. We here explore the opportunities for improved decision-making derived from modeling cash flow uncertainty with the help of data-driven procedures within a multiobjective context. On the one hand, cash managers may achieve cost savings by forecasting future cash flows. To this end, we perform an empirical analysis of daily cash flow time-series to take advantage of modern machine learning techniques as a key step to connect data analysis and optimization methods in cash management. On the other hand, cash managers may be interested not only in the cost but also in the risk associated to decision-making. Thus, we address the cash management problem from a multiobjective perspective focusing on both cost and risk. In addition, under the current situation of time-varying financial circumstances, the selection of cash management models according to operating conditions and its robustness are worth considering questions. We also show the utility of forecasts through a new cash management model which outperforms the state-of-the-art by guaranteeing optimal solutions. Since most firms usually deal with cash management systems with multiple accounts, we develop a framework to formulate and solve the multiple bank accounts cash management problem. Finally, in an attempt to fill the gap between theory and practice, we also provide a software library in Python for practitioners interested in building decision support systems for cash management.Esta tesi investiga el problema de gestió de tresoreria des d'un punt de vista multidimensional. La gestió de tresoreria tracta d'equilibrar la quantitat que es manté en efectiu i la que es dedica a inversions a curt termini. Normalment, el tresorers prenen decisions basant-se en el nivell òptim de tresoreria per motius operatius i de precaució. En aquesta tesi explorem les oportunitats per millorar la presa de decisions derivades de modelitzar la incertesa present en els fluxos de caixa amb l'ajuda de procediments basats en dades. Per un costat, els tresorers poden aconseguir estalvis de costos mitjançant la previsió de tresoreria. Per tal d'aconseguir-ho, realitzem d'un estudi empíric amb l'objectiu d'aprofitar les més recents tècniques d'aprenentatge automàtic per connectar l'anàlisi de les dades disponbiles amb els procesos d'optimització en la gestió de tresoreria. Per altra banda, els tresorers poden estar interessats no sols en el cost sinó també en el risc associat a les seues decisions. Per tant, tractem el problema de gestió de tresoreria des d'un punt de vista multiobjectiu, fixant-se tant en el cost com en el risc. A més a més, degut a la canviant situació financera actual, explorem la selecció de models de gestió de tresoreria en funció de diferents condicions operatives i de la seua robustesa. També demostrem la utilitat de les previsions mitjançant un nou model de tresoreria que millora l'estat de l'art al garantir solucions òptimes. Com que la majoria d'empreses treballa amb sistemes de tresoreria amb múltiples comptes bancaris, desenvolupem un marc per a la formulació i solució del problema de gestió de tresoreria amb múltiples comptes bancaris. Finalment, en un intent d'apropar teoria i pràctica, també oferim un llibreria en Python per a usuaris interessats en la construcció de sistemes d'ajuda a la presa de decisions en la gestió de tresoreria.Salas Molina, F. (2017). DATA-DRIVEN DECISION-MAKING AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE CORPORATE CASH MANAGEMENT PROBLEM [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/95408TESI

Optimal electric vehicle scheduling : A co-optimized system and customer perspective

Electric vehicles provide a two pronged solution to the problems faced by the electricity and transportation sectors. They provide a green, highly efficient alternative to the internal combustion engine vehicles, thus reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. Secondly, they bear the potential of supporting the grid as energy storage devices while incentivizing the customers through their participation in energy markets. Despite these advantages, widespread adoption of electric vehicles faces socio-technical and economic bottleneck. This dissertation seeks to provide solutions that balance system and customer objectives under present technological capabilities. The research uses electric vehicles as controllable loads and resources. The idea is to provide the customers with required tools to make an informed decision while considering the system conditions. First, a genetic algorithm based optimal charging strategy to reduce the impact of aggregated electric vehicle load has been presented. A Monte Carlo based solution strategy studies change in the solution under different objective functions. This day-ahead scheduling is then extended to real-time coordination using a moving-horizon approach. Further, battery degradation costs have been explored with vehicle-to-grid implementations, thus accounting for customer net-revenue and vehicle utility for grid support. A Pareto front, thus obtained, provides the nexus between customer and system desired operating points. Finally, we propose a transactive business model for a smart airport parking facility. This model identifies various revenue streams and satisfaction indices that benefit the parking lot owner and the customer, thus adding value to the electric vehicle --Abstract, page iv

Signaling Social Responsibility: On the Law and Economics of Market Incentives for Corporate Environmental Performance

This article analyzes the law and economics of market internalization: the capability of markets to both penalize and reward firms for their environmental, health and safety performance. As for market sticks, the article maintains that market transactions - both private and public sales of corporate assets as well as transactions in publicly traded securities - are an important avenue through which firms realize comparative advantages in regulatory compliance, and that such transactions have the potential to significantly enhance corporate environmental and social performance. Asset transactions tend to drive environmental cleanup and transfer assets to firms that are better able to know about and comply with relevant regulatory directives. On public securities markets, the very fact that traders are imperfectly informed about firm-specific regulatory risk causes disproportionately large market reaction to the revelation of such risks. The incentive to avoid such large, negative market reactions to the revelation of negative information leads may induce a higher level of compliance than were no such market reaction anticipated. Incentives for voluntary disclosure of negative information are complex, but as is true of financial disclosure, mandatory disclosure requirements may be crucial in allowing firms to make such credible commitments. As for the potential positive rewards (in the form of price premia) that SR consumers and investor offer to firms that they perceive to be pursuing CSR, the fundamental problem is that CSR cannot be directly observed by consumers and investors. Unless firms can find a credible signal of CSR, the positive potential of the market may go unrealized. Inevitably, much corporate communication regarding CSR is (from a game-theoretic point of view) cheap talk. There is likely to an uninformative, pooling equilibrium in which only firms in industries with well-recognized, large SR impacts are likely to engage in CSR cheap talk, so that such reports do not generate information on the relative economic and social performance of firms within the category of firms that report. The article\u27s policy conclusions include the following: - The SEC\u27s standard requiring the disclosure only of those environmental regulatory costs and liabilities that are probable and reasonably estimable is sensible as tracking the market\u27s limitations in coping with risk versus uncertainty, but the SEC\u27s almost complete failure to enforce its rules regarding the disclosure of environmental risks has made it impossible for corporate managers to credibly commit to being one of the good guys by voluntarily disclosing such bad news. - As for the potential for legal liability for false assertions of CSR to deter bad companies from pretending to be good ones via their CSR communications (thus destroying the uninformative (or babbling) market equilibrium, the optimal liability system involves potential liability (because it gives plaintiffs access to civil discovery that allows for the discovery of information regarding corporate labor and environmental practices that otherwise would be asymmetrically available only to the corporate speaker), but liability that is strictly limited in amount. The market alternative of private, third party certification of CSR disclosures and assertions - a market response to SR consumers\u27 and investors\u27 demand for credible, reliable firm-specific information - is effective only if itself credible. While market reputation clearly helps ensure the truthfulness and credibility of private auditors\u27 CSR reports, the risk of collusion between audited companies and their auditors is just as great when it comes to CSR as it is in the traditional area of financial report auditing. Just as with financial reports, the threat of holding auditors legally liable for intentionally or negligently false CSR audit reports may be necessary for private CSR auditing to generate credible information