Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by AOMIP Models

We compare results from six AOMIP model simulations with estimates of sea ice thickness obtained from ICESat, moored and submarine-based upward looking sensors, airborne electromagnetic measurements and drill holes. Our goal is to find patterns of model performance to guide model improvement. The satellite data is pan-arctic from 2004-2008, ice-draft data is from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort Sea from 1992-2008 and from submarines from 1975-2000. The drill hole data are from the Laptev and East Siberian marginal seas from 1982-1986 and from coastal stations from 1998-2009. While there are important caveats when comparing modeled results with measurements from different platforms and time periods such as these, the models agree well with moored ULS data. In general, the AOMIP models underestimate the thickness of measured ice thicker than about 2 m and overestimate thickness of ice thinner than 2 m. The simulated results are poor over the fast ice and marginal seas of the Siberian shelves. Averaging over all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observed thickness are from the ECCO2 and UW models

PICES Press, Vol. 25, No. 1, Winter 2017

PICES science in 2016: A note from the Science Board Chair (pp. 1-8); 2016 PICES awards (pp. 9-12); PICES calendar of events (pp. 13-13); Impressions of PICES from old friends (pp. 14-17); S-CCME Workshop W5, “Modeling effects of climate change on fish and fisheries (pp. 18-22); In memoriam: Professor Emeritus Paul J. Harrison (pp. 23-23); Workshop W9, “The role of the northern Bering Sea in modulating arctic environments” (pp. 24); A symposium to mark the 60th anniversary of Station Papa/Line P (pp. 28-29); To the interface and beyond: Results and legacy of SCOR Working Group 140 (pp. 30-31); Webcam monitoring and modeling of Japanese tsunami marine debris (pp. 32-35); Mapping patterns of marine debris in the main Hawaiian Islands using aerial imagery and spatial analysis (pp. 36-39); New leadership in PICES (pp. 40-44); PICES interns (pp. 45-45); The Bering Sea: Current status and recent trends (pp. 46-49); The state of the western North Pacific during the 2016 warm season (pp. 50-51

Reconstruction and Analysis of the Chukchi Sea Circulation in 1990-1991

The Chukchi Sea (CS) circulation reconstructed for September 1990 to October 1991 from sea ice and ocean data is presented and analyzed. The core of the observational data used in this study comprises the records from 12 moorings deployed in 1990 and 1991 in U. S. and Russian waters and two hydrographic surveys conducted in the region in the fall of 1990 and 1991. The observations are processed by a two-step data assimilation procedure involving the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (employing a nudging algorithm for sea ice data assimilation) and the Semi-implicit Ocean Model [utilizing a conventional four-dimensional variational (4D-var) assimilation technique]. The reconstructed CS circulation is studied to identify pathways and assess residence times of Pacific water in the region; quantify the balances of volume, freshwater, and heat content; and determine the leading dynamical factors configuring the CS circulation. It is found that in 1990-1991 (high AO index and a cyclonic circulation regime) Pacific water transiting the CS toward the Canada basin followed two major pathways, namely via Herald Canyon (Herald branch of circulation, 0.23 Sv) and between Herald Shoal and Cape Lisburne (central branch of circulation and Alaskan Coastal Current, 0.32 Sv). The annual mean flow through Long Strait was negligible (0.01 Sv). Typical residence time of Pacific water in the region varied between 150 days for waters entering the CS in September and 270 days for waters entering in February/March. Momentum balance analysis reveals that geostrophic balance between barotropic pressure gradient and Coriolis force dominated for most of the year. Baroclinic effects were important for circulation only in the regions with large horizontal salinity gradients associated with the fresh Alaskan and Siberian coastal currents and the Cape Lisburne and Great Siberian polynyas. In the polynyas, the baroclinic effects were due to strong salinification and convection processes associated with sea ice formation

A Synthesis of Year-Round Interdisciplinary Mooring Measurements in the Bering Strait (1990-2014) and the RUSALCA Years (2004-2011)

The flow through the Bering Strait, the only Pacific-Arctic oceanic gateway, has dramatic local, regional, and global impacts. Advanced year-round moored technology quantifies challengingly large temporal (subdaily, seasonal, and interannual) and spatial variability in the ~85 km wide, two-channel strait. The typically northward flow, intensified seasonally in the ~10–20 km wide, warm, fresh, nutrient-poor Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC) in the east, is otherwise generally homogeneous in velocity throughout the strait, although with higher salinities and nutrients and lower temperatures in the west. Velocity and water properties respond rapidly (including flow reversals) to local wind, likely causing most of the strait’s approximately two-layer summer structure (by “spilling” the ACC) and winter water-column homogenization. We identify island-trapped eddy zones in the central strait; changes in sea-ice properties (season mean thicknesses from 2 m); and increases in annual mean volume, heat, and freshwater fluxes from 2001 to present (2013). Tantalizing first results from year-round bio-optics, nitrate, and ocean acidification sensors indicate significant seasonal and spatial change, possibly driven by the spring bloom. Moored acoustic recorders show large interannual variability in sub-Arctic whale occurrence, related perhaps to water property changes. Substantial daily variability demonstrates the dangers of interpreting section data and the necessity for year-round interdisciplinary time-series measurements.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the Oceanography Society and can be found at: http://tos.org/oceanography/article/a-synthesis-of-year-round-interdisciplinary-mooring-measurements-in-the-ber Bering Strait physical oceanographic data are available via http://psc.apl.washington.edu/BeringStrait.html and the National Oceanographic Data Center (https://www.nodc.noaa.gov); ocean acidification data, via http://aoncadis.org; and marine mammal acoustic data, via http://aoncadis.org and http://AOOS.org

Variability In The Circulation, Temperature, And Salinity Fields Of The Eastern Bering Sea Shelf In Response To Atomospheric Forcing

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2012Although the Bering Sea shelf plays a critical role in mediating the global climate and supports one of the world's largest fisheries, fundamental questions remain about the role of advection on its salt, fresh water, heat and nutrient budgets. I quantify seasonal and inter-annual variability in the temperature, salinity and circulation fields. Shipboard survey temperature and salinity data from summer's end reveal that advection affects the inter-annual variability of fresh water and heat content: heat content anomalies are set by along-shelf summer Ekman transport anomalies whereas fresh water content anomalies are determined by wind direction anomalies averaged over the previous fall, winter and early spring. The latter is consistent with an inverse relationship between coastal and mid-shelf salinity anomalies and late summer -- winter cross-shelf motion of satellite-tracked drifters. These advection anomalies result from the position and strength of the Aleutian Low pressure system. Mooring data applied to the vertically integrated equations of motion show that the momentum balance is primarily geostrophic within at least one external deformation radius of the coast. Local accelerations, wind stress and bottom friction account for < 20% (up to 40%) of the along- (cross-) isobath momentum balance, depending on location and season. Wind-forced surface Ekman divergence is primarily responsible for flow variations. The shelf changes abruptly from strong coastal convergence conditions to strong coastal divergence conditions for winds directed to the south and for winds directed to the west, respectively, and substantial portions of the shelf's currents reorganize between these two modes of wind forcing. Based on the above observations and supporting numerical model integrations, I propose a simple framework for considering the shelf-wide circulation response to variations in wind forcing. Under southeasterly winds, northward transport increases and onshore cross-isobath transport is relatively large. Under northwesterly winds, onshore transport decreases or reverses and nutrient-rich waters flow toward the central shelf from the north and northwest, replacing dilute coastal waters that are carried south and west. These results have implications for the advection of heat, salt, fresh water, nutrients, plankton, eggs and larvae across the entire shelf

Alaska Shorefast Ice: Interfacing Geophysics With Local Sea Ice Knowledge And Use

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2011This thesis interfaces geophysical techniques with local and traditional knowledge (LTK) of indigenous ice experts to track and evaluate coastal sea ice conditions over annual and inter-annual timescales. A novel approach is presented for consulting LTK alongside a systematic study of where, when, and how the community of Barrow, Alaska uses the ice cover. The goal of this research is to improve our understanding of and abilities to monitor the processes that govern the state and dynamics of shorefast sea ice in the Chukchi Sea and use of ice by the community. Shorefast ice stability and community strategies for safe hunting provide a framework for data collection and knowledge sharing that reveals how nuanced observations by Inupiat ice experts relate to identifying hazards. In particular, shorefast ice break-out events represent a significant threat to the lives of hunters. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to combine local and time-specific observations of ice conditions by both geophysical instruments and local experts, and to evaluate how ice features, atmospheric and oceanic forces, and local to regional processes interact to cause break-out events. Each year, the Barrow community builds trails across shorefast ice for use during the spring whaling season. In collaboration with hunters, a systematic multi-year survey (2007--2011) was performed to map these trails and measure ice thickness along them. Relationships between ice conditions and hunter strategies that guide trail placement and risk assessment are explored. In addition, trail surveys provide a meaningful and consistent approach to monitoring the thickness distribution of shorefast ice, while establishing a baseline for assessing future environmental change and potential impacts to the community. Coastal communities in the region have proven highly adaptive in their ability to safely and successfully hunt from sea ice over the last 30 years as significant changes have been observed in the ice zone north of Alaska. This research further illustrates how Barrow's whaling community copes with year-to-year variability and significant intra-seasonal changes in ice conditions. Hence, arctic communities that have coped with such short-term variability may be more adaptive to future environmental change than communities located in less dynamic environments

Thin Sea Ice, Thick Snow, and Widespread Negative Freeboard Observed During N-ICE2015 North of Svalbard

In recent years, sea-ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean changed substantially toward a younger and thinner sea-ice cover. To capture the scope of these changes and identify the differences between individual regions, in situ observations from expeditions are a valuable data source. We present a continuous time series of in situ measurements from the N-ICE2015 expedition from January to June 2015 in the Arctic Basin north of Svalbard, comprising snow buoy and ice mass balance buoy data and local and regional data gained from electromagnetic induction (EM) surveys and snow probe measurements from four distinct drifts. The observed mean snow depth of 0.53 m for April to early June is 73% above the average value of 0.30 m from historical and recent observations in this region, covering the years 1955–2017. The modal total ice and snow thicknesses, of 1.6 and 1.7 m measured with ground-based EM and airborne EM measurements in April, May, and June 2015, respectively, lie below the values ranging from 1.8 to 2.7 m, reported in historical observations from the same region and time of year. The thick snow cover slows thermodynamic growth of the underlying sea ice. In combination with a thin sea-ice cover this leads to an imbalance between snow and ice thickness, which causes widespread negative freeboard with subsequent flooding and a potential for snow-ice formation. With certainty, 29% of randomly located drill holes on level ice had negative freeboard

Simulation of Freshwater Processes Associated with the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

This thesis presents the numerical simulations related to freshwater processes within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) using a coupled ocean and sea ice pan-Arctic model based on NEMO v3.1. In this study, two major routes for the export of Pacific water to the North Atlantic, via either Fram Strait or the CAA, are identified using three dimensional (3D) Lagrangian particle tracking. More than 70% of the Pacific water is exported out of the Arctic Ocean within 10 years using either the Transpolar route or the Alaskan route. About 50% of the above water is delivered to the North Atlantic through the central CAA. The proportion of Pacific water transported along the two routes is found to be associated with the spatial distribution of freshwater within the Canadian Basin. The impacts of Greenland melt are studied through a series of sensitivity experiments that add different amounts of freshwater along the coast of Greenland. Compared to the control run, enhanced Greenland melt significantly increases the freshwater content within Baffin Bay, raising the dynamic heights and further weakening the CAA throughflows. Meanwhile, a strengthened outflow through Fram Strait is produced to compensate for the reductions in volume and freshwater transport through the CAA. Using forcing data from global climate models under the IPCC 20C3M and A1B climate scenarios, sea ice and surface ocean conditions within the CAA and adjacent regions are studied in detail. Remarkable changes in sea ice (concentration and thickness) are shown in the simulation from the mid 2020s to the mid 2060s. A shrinking of 65% in concentration and a thinning of 75% in thickness are estimated over the 40 years. Lower albedo results in more heat absorbed by the ocean, increasing the sea surface temperature, especially in summer. However, sea surface salinity within the CAA does not become fresher under the context of ice melting but demonstrates a strong decadal oscillation. Also an increase in the Arctic Ocean freshwater storage is simulated. Change in the sea surface height in Baffin Bay and Canadian Basin impacts the central CAA throughflow and pathway of Pacific water in the Arctic Ocean in the future

A long-term record of sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic

Sea ice plays a vital role in the Arctic region and affects numerous processes: it influences the radiative budget by reflecting sunlight and acts as a barrier for heat transport between atmosphere and ocean; it influences Arctic ecosystems as a habitat for different species; it is important for hunting and travel for local communities; and it acts as a hazard for marine shipping. Monitoring sea ice, specifically its thickness, is essential in understanding how it is changing with ongoing global warming.This thesis presents a novel method to create a long-term record (1996-2020) for sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic and assesses how sea ice thickness changed and what the impacts of these changes are.This thesis initially aimed to extract a long-term sea ice thickness record for the Canadian Arctic from satellite altimetry. However, it revealed that assumptions regarding the snowpack, sea ice density, and processing algorithms highly influence conclusions on sea ice thickness state and trends, and this approach was rejected. Instead, this thesis presents a proxy sea ice thickness product for the Canadian Arctic using ice charts, which for the first time consistently covers the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In the final research chapter, this sea ice thickness proxy product and ice charts are used to assess sea ice changes in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and their impact on accessibility.Sea ice has thinned across most of the Canadian Arctic region, with a mean change over the full area of 38.5 cm for November and 20.5 cm for April over the period 1996-2020. Moreover, the marine navigability is shown to increase in the access channels to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, which enhances the possibilities for resupply for local communities. However, with continuing dynamic influx of old and thick sea ice, there is no change in full navigability of the Northwest Passage connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

The Southeast Bering Sea Ecosystem: implications for marine resource management (Final Report: Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity).

Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity (SEBSCC, 1996–2002) was a NOAA Coastal Ocean Program project that investigated the marine ecosystem of the southeastern Bering Sea. SEBSCC was co-managed by the University of Alaska Fairbanks, NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center, and NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. Project goals were to understand the changing physical environment and its relationship to the biota of the region, to relate that understanding to natural variations in year-class strength of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), and to improve the flow of ecosystem information to fishery managers. In addition to SEBSCC, the Inner Front study (1997–2000), supported by the National Science Foundation (Prolonged Production and Trophic Transfer to Predators: Processes at the Inner Front of the S.E. Bering Sea), was active in the southeastern Bering Sea from 1997 to 1999. The SEBSCC and Inner Front studies were complementary. SEBSCC focused on the middle and outer shelf. Inner Front worked the middle and inner shelf. Collaboration between investigators in the two programs was strong, and the joint results yielded a substantially increased understanding of the regional ecosystem. SEBSCC focused on four central scientific issues: (1) How does climate variability influence the marine ecosystem of the Bering Sea? (2) What determines the timing, amount, and fate of primary and secondary production? (3) How do oceanographic conditions on the shelf influence distributions of fish and other species? (4) What limits the growth of fish populations on the eastern Bering Sea shelf? Underlying these broad questions was a narrower focus on walleye pollock, particularly a desire to understand ecological factors that affect year-class strength and the ability to predict the potential of a year class at the earliest possible time. The Inner Front program focused on the role of the structural front between the well-mixed waters of the coastal domain and the two-layer system of the middle domain. Of special interest was the potential for prolonged post-spring-bloom production at the front and its role in supporting upper trophic level organisms such as juvenile pollock and seabirds. Of concern to both programs was the role of interannual and longer-term variability in marine climates and their effects on the function of sub-arctic marine ecosystems and their ability to support upper trophic level organisms