SOCIAL NETWORK INFLUENCE ON RIDESHARING, DISASTER COMMUNICATIONS, AND COMMUNITY INTERACTIONS

The complex topology of real networks allows network agents to change their functional behavior. Conceptual and methodological developments in network analysis have furthered our understanding of the effects of interpersonal environment on normative social influence and social engagement. Social influence occurs when network agents change behavior being influenced by others in the social network and this takes place in a multitude of varying disciplines. The overarching goal of this thesis is to provide a holistic understanding and develop novel techniques to explore how individuals are socially influenced, both on-line and off-line, while making shared-trips, communicating risk during extreme weather, and interacting in respective communities. The notion of influence is captured by quantifying the network effects on such decision-making and characterizing how information is exchanged between network agents. The methodologies and findings presented in this thesis will benefit different stakeholders and practitioners to determine and implement targeted policies for various user groups in regular, special, and extreme events based on their social network characteristics, properties, activities, and interactions

The discrete dynamics of small-scale spatial events: agent-based models of mobility in carnivals and street parades

Small-scale spatial events are situations in which elements or objects vary in such away that temporal dynamics is intrinsic to their representation and explanation. Someof the clearest examples involve local movement from conventional traffic modelingto disaster evacuation where congestion, crowding, panic, and related safety issue arekey features of such events. We propose that such events can be simulated using newvariants of pedestrian model, which embody ideas about how behavior emerges fromthe accumulated interactions between small-scale objects. We present a model inwhich the event space is first explored by agents using ?swarm intelligence?. Armedwith information about the space, agents then move in an unobstructed fashion to theevent. Congestion and problems over safety are then resolved through introducingcontrols in an iterative fashion and rerunning the model until a ?safe solution? isreached. The model has been developed to simulate the effect of changing the route ofthe Notting Hill Carnival, an annual event held in west central London over 2 days inAugust each year. One of the key issues in using such simulation is how the processof modeling interacts with those who manage and control the event. As such, thischanges the nature of the modeling problem from one where control and optimizationis external to the model to one where this is intrinsic to the simulation

Critical Infrastructures: Enhancing Preparedness & Resilience for the Security of Citizens and Services Supply Continuity: Proceedings of the 52nd ESReDA Seminar Hosted by the Lithuanian Energy Institute & Vytautas Magnus University

Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience is a major societal security issue in modern society. Critical Infrastructures (CIs) provide vital services to modern societies. Some CIs’ disruptions may endanger the security of the citizen, the safety of the strategic assets and even the governance continuity. The European Safety, Reliability and Data Association (ESReDA) as one of the most active EU networks in the field has initiated a project group on the “Critical Infrastructure/Modelling, Simulation and Analysis – Data”. The main focus of the project group is to report on the state of progress in MS&A of the CIs preparedness & resilience with a specific focus on the corresponding data availability and relevance. In order to report on the most recent developments in the field of the CIs preparedness & resilience MS&A and the availability of the relevant data, ESReDA held its 52nd Seminar on the following thematic: “Critical Infrastructures: Enhancing Preparedness & Resilience for the security of citizens and services supply continuity”. The 52nd ESReDA Seminar was a very successful event, which attracted about 50 participants from industry, authorities, operators, research centres, academia and consultancy companies.JRC.G.10-Knowledge for Nuclear Security and Safet

スケーラブルなマルチエージェント大都市域避難行動シミュレータの自動車の考慮に重点をおいた拡張と適用

学位の種別: 課程博士審査委員会委員 : (主査)東京大学准教授 マッデゲダラ ラリス, 東京大学教授 堀 宗朗, 東京大学教授 大口 敬, 東京大学教授 堀田 昌英, 東京大学准教授 市村 強, 東京大学准教授 柳澤 大地University of Tokyo(東京大学

Controlling Hazardous Releases While Protecting Passengers in Civil Infrastructure Systems

The threat of accidental or deliberate toxic chemicals released into public spaces is a significant concern to public safety, and the real-time detection and mitigation of such hazardous contaminants has the potential to minimize harm and save lives. Furthermore, the safe evacuation of occupants during such a catastrophe is of utmost importance. This research entails a comprehensive means to address such scenarios, through both the sensing and control of contaminants, and the modeling of and potential communication to occupants as they evacuate. First, a computational fluid dynamics model has been developed that is capable of detecting and mitigating the hazardous contaminant over several time horizons using model predictive control optimization. Next, an evacuation agent-based model has been designed and coupled with the flow control model to simulate agents evacuating while interacting with a dynamic, threatening environment. Finally, a physical prototype (blower wind tunnel) has been constructed with capability of detection (via Ethernet-connected camera) of and mitigation (via compressed-air operated actuators) of a `contaminant' (i.e. smoke) to test the real-time feasibility of the computational fluid dynamics flow control model.PHDEnvironmental EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/135812/1/srimer_1.pd

Resilience of critical structures, infrastructure, and communities

In recent years, the concept of resilience has been introduced to the field of engineering as it relates to disaster mitigation and management. However, the built environment is only one element that supports community functionality. Maintaining community functionality during and after a disaster, defined as resilience, is influenced by multiple components. This report summarizes the research activities of the first two years of an ongoing collaboration between the Politecnico di Torino and the University of California, Berkeley, in the field of disaster resilience. Chapter 1 focuses on the economic dimension of disaster resilience with an application to the San Francisco Bay Area; Chapter 2 analyzes the option of using base-isolation systems to improve the resilience of hospitals and school buildings; Chapter 3 investigates the possibility to adopt discrete event simulation models and a meta-model to measure the resilience of the emergency department of a hospital; Chapter 4 applies the meta-model developed in Chapter 3 to the hospital network in the San Francisco Bay Area, showing the potential of the model for design purposes Chapter 5 uses a questionnaire combined with factorial analysis to evaluate the resilience of a hospital; Chapter 6 applies the concept of agent-based models to analyze the performance of socio-technical networks during an emergency. Two applications are shown: a museum and a train station; Chapter 7 defines restoration fragility functions as tools to measure uncertainties in the restoration process; and Chapter 8 focuses on modeling infrastructure interdependencies using temporal networks at different spatial scales

Development of virtual cities models during emergencies

L'abstract è presente nell'allegato / the abstract is in the attachmen

Understanding the Socio-infrastructure Systems During Disaster from Social Media Data

Our socio-infrastructure systems are becoming more and more vulnerable due to the increased severity and frequency of extreme events every year. Effective disaster management can minimize the damaging impacts of a disaster to a large extent. The ubiquitous use of social media platforms in GPS enabled smartphones offers a unique opportunity to observe, model, and predict human behavior during a disaster. This dissertation explores the opportunity of using social media data and different modeling techniques towards understanding and managing disaster more dynamically. In this dissertation, we focus on four objectives. First, we develop a method to infer individual evacuation behaviors (e.g., evacuation decision, timing, destination) from social media data. We develop an input output hidden Markov model to infer evacuation decisions from user tweets. Our findings show that using geo-tagged posts and text data, a hidden Markov model can be developed to capture the dynamics of hurricane evacuation decision. Second, we develop evacuation demand prediction model using social media and traffic data. We find that trained from social media and traffic data, a deep learning model can predict well evacuation traffic demand up to 24 hours ahead. Third, we present a multi-label classification approach to identify the co-occurrence of multiple types of infrastructure disruptions considering the sentiment towards a disruption—whether a post is reporting an actual disruption (negative), or a disruption in general (neutral), or not affected by a disruption (positive). We validate our approach for data collected during multiple hurricanes. Fourth, finally we develop an agent-based model to understand the influence of multiple information sources on risk perception dynamics and evacuation decisions. In this study, we explore the effects of socio-demographic factors and information sources such as social connectivity, neighborhood observation, and weather information and its credibility in forming risk perception dynamics and evacuation decisions

Multi-Scale Evacuation Models To Support Emergency And Disaster Response

Evacuation is a short-term measure to mitigate human injuries and losses by temporarily relocation of exposed population before, during, or after disasters. With the increasing growth of population and cities, buildings and urban areas are over-populated which brings about safety issues when there is a need for emergency evacuation. In disaster studies, simulation is widely used to explore how natural hazards might evolve in the future, and how societies might respond to these events. Accordingly, evacuation simulation is a potentially helpful tool for emergency responders and policy makers to evaluate the required time for evacuation and the estimated number and distribution of casualties under a disaster scenario. The healthcare system is an essential subsystem of communities which ensures the health and well-being of their residents. Hence, the resilience of the healthcare system plays an essential role in the resilience of the whole community. In disasters, patient mobility is a major challenge for healthcare systems to overcome. This is where the scientific society enters with modeling and simulation techniques to help decision-makers. Hospital evacuation simulation considering patients with different mobility characteristics, needs, and interactions, demands a microscopic modeling approach, like Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). However, as the system increases in size, the models become highly complex and intractable. Large-scale complex ABMs can be reduced by reformulating the micro-scale model of agents by a meso-scale model of population densities and partial differential equations, or a macro-scale model of population stocks and ordinary differential equations. However, reducing the size and fidelity of microscopic models to meso- or macro-scale models implies certain drawbacks. This dissertation contributes to the improvement of large-scale agent-based evacuation simulation and multi-scale hospital evacuation models. For large-scale agent-based models, application of bug navigation algorithms, popular in the field of robotics, is evaluated to improve the efficiency of such models. A candidate bug algorithm is proposed based on a performance evaluation framework, and its applicability and practicability are demonstrated by a real-world example. For hospital evacuation simulation, crowd evacuation considering people with different physical and mobility characteristics is modeled on three different scales: microscopic (ABM), mesoscopic (fluid dynamics model), and macroscopic (system dynamics model). Similar to the well-known Predator-Prey model, the results of this study show the extent to which macroscopic and mesoscopic models can produce global behaviors emerging from agents’ interactions in ABMs. To evaluate the performance of these multi-scale models, the evacuation of the emergency department at Johns Hopkins University is simulated, and the outputs and performance of the models are compared in terms of implementation complexity, required input data, provided output data, and computation time. It is concluded that the microscopic agent-based model is recommended to hospital emergency planners for long-term use such as evaluating different emergency scenarios and effectiveness of different evacuation plans. On the other hand, the macroscopic system dynamics model is best to be used as a simple tool (like an app) for rapid situation assessment and decision making in case of imminent events. The fluid dynamics model is found to be suitable only for studying crowd dynamics in medium to high densities, but it does not offer any competency as an evacuation simulation tool

Role of opinion sharing on the emergency evacuation dynamics

Emergency evacuation is a critical research topic and any improvement to the existing evacuation models will help in improving the safety of the evacuees. Currently, there are evacuation models that have either an accurate movement model or a sophisticated decision model. Individuals in a crowd tend to share and propagate their opinion. This opinion sharing part is either implicitly modeled or entirely overlooked in most of the existing models. Thus, one of the overarching goal of this research is to the study the effect of opinion evolution through an evacuating crowd. First, the opinion evolution in a crowd was modeled mathematically. Next, the results from the analytical model were validated with a simulation model having a simple motion model. To improve the fidelity of the evacuation model, a more realistic movement and decision model were incorporated and the effect of opinion sharing on the evacuation dynamics was studied extensively. Further, individuals with strong inclination towards particular route were introduced and their effect on overall efficiency was studied. Current evacuation guidance algorithms focuses on efficient crowd evacuation. The method of guidance delivery is generally overlooked. This important gap in guidance delivery is addressed next. Additionally, a virtual reality based immersive experiment is designed to study factors affecting individuals\u27 decision making during emergency evacuation