Estimation of run times in a freight rail transportation network

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2012.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 49-51).The objective of this thesis is to improve the accuracy of individual freight train run time predictions defined as the time between departure from an origin node to arrival at a destination node not including yard time. A correlation analysis is conducted to identify explanatory variables that capture predictable sources of delay and influence run times for use in a regression model. A regression model is proposed utilizing the following explanatory variables: rolling historical average, congestion window, meets, passes, overtakes, direction, arrival headway, and departure headway to predict train run times. The performance of the proposed regression model is compared against a baseline simple historical averaging technique for a two year period of actual train operational data. The proposed regression model, though subject to specific limitations, offers substantial improvements in accuracy over the baseline technique and is recommended as justifying further exploration by the railroad to ultimately enable more accurate train schedules with subsequent improvements in railroad capacity, customer service, and asset utilization.by Kunal Bonsra and Joseph Harbolovic.M.Eng.in Logistic

A conditional Bayesian delay propagation model for large-scale railway traffic networks

© 2019 Australasian Transport Research Forum, ATRF 2019 - Proceedings. All rights reserved. Reliability is one of the critical success factors for both passenger and freight rail service delivery. One major factor that significantly impacts reliability performance is delays spanning over spatial and temporal dimensions. One way to increase reliability is to avoid systematic delay propagation through better timetable design to reduce the interdependencies between trains caused by route conflicts and train connections. In this paper, we aim to predict the propagation of delays on a railway network by developing a conditional Bayesian delay propagation model. In the model, the propagation satisfies the Markov property that determination of delay propagation for the future of the process is based solely on its present state, and that the history does not have an influence on the future. For the cases of delay caused by cross line conflicts and train connection, throughput estimation is considered in the model. The proposed model benefits from scalable computing time and complexity advantages over the Markov property. Implementation of actual operational data shows the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed model when compared to traditional probability models. The proposed model can be used for timetable evaluation and operations management decision support

Decomposing journey time variance on urban rail transit systems

In this thesis, automated fare collection (AFC) data are used to analyse and quantify transit journey time service quality on the London Underground metro system. The thesis comprises of three main research areas. The first part focuses on characterising passenger journey time variance through the generation of empirical probability distributions of journey times under regular and incident-affected operating conditions. The distributions are parametrically defined, and practical passenger-oriented performance metrics are proposed based on the moments of the distributions. The second area of research involves decomposing total passenger journey times recorded by the AFC data into sub-components that distinguish between the walking and in-vehicle phases of a passenger journey. To achieve this, a Bayesian assignment algorithm is proposed to allocate individual passengers to individual trains. Total journey times are then decomposed into the constituent components of access, on-train, and egress times. In the third area of research, the degree to which different service supply and demand factors influence journey times is analysed. Semiparametric regression methods are applied to quantify the effect of physical station and route characteristics, operational service supply factors, and passenger demand levels for each journey time component. To quantify the effect of individual passenger characteristics on journey times, passenger-level heterogeneity within each journey time component is analysed. As an extension to the access time model, the influence of train headways on passenger wait times at the origin station is also derived. The main outputs of the thesis are the quantification of journey time performance, and the identification of the key service supply and demand factors that impact journey times. The results can be directly applied by operators to guide where potential interventions should be made in order to improve the reliability of journey times for urban rail transit networks.Open Acces

Analyzing the theoretical capacity of railway networks with a radial-backbone topology

In this work we propose a mechanism to optimize the capacity of the main corridor within a railway network with a radial-backbone or X-tree structure. The radial-backbone (or Xtree) structure is composed of two types of lines: the primary lines that travel exclusively on the common backbone (main corridor) and radial lines which, starting from the common backbone, branch out to individual locations. We define possible line configurations as binary strings and propose operators on them for their analysis, yielding an effective algorithm for generating an optimal design and train frequencies. We test our algorithm on real data for the high speed line Madrid-Seville. A frequency plan consistent with the optimal capacity is then proposed in order to eliminate the number of transfers between lines as well as to minimize the network fleet size, determining the minimum number of vehicles needed to serve all travel demand at maximum occupancy.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad MTM2012-37048Junta de Andalucía P09-TEP-5022Junta de Andalucía P10-FQM-5849Canadian Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council 39682-1

Disruption analytics in urban metro systems with large-scale automated data

Urban metro systems are frequently affected by disruptions such as infrastructure malfunctions, rolling stock breakdowns and accidents. Such disruptions give rise to delays, congestion and inconvenience for public transport users, which in turn, lead to a wider range of negative impacts on the social economy and wellbeing. This PhD thesis aims to improve our understanding of disruption impacts and improve the ability of metro operators to detect and manage disruptions by using large-scale automated data. The crucial precondition of any disruption analytics is to have accurate information about the location, occurrence time, duration and propagation of disruptions. In pursuit of this goal, the thesis develops statistical models to detect disruptions via deviations in trains’ headways relative to their regular services. Our method is a unique contribution in the sense that it is based on automated vehicle location data (data-driven) and the probabilistic framework is effective to detect any type of service interruptions, including minor delays that last just a few minutes. As an important research outcome, the thesis delivers novel analyses of the propagation progress of disruptions along metro lines, thus enabling us to distinguish primary and secondary disruptions as well as recovery interventions performed by operators. The other part of the thesis provides new insights for quantifying disruption impacts and measuring metro vulnerability. One of our key messages is that in metro systems there are factors influencing both the occurrence of disruptions and their outcomes. With such confounding factors, we show that causal inference is a powerful tool to estimate unbiased impacts on passenger demand and journey time, which is also capable of quantifying the spatial-temporal propagation of disruption impacts within metro networks. The causal inference approaches are applied to empirical studies based on the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway (MTR). Our conclusions can assist researchers and practitioners in two applications: (i) the evaluation of metro performance such as service reliability, system vulnerability and resilience, and (ii) the management of future disruptions.Open Acces

Development of a multimodal port freight transportation model for estimating container throughput

Computer based simulation models have often been used to study the multimodal freight transportation system. But these studies have not been able to dynamically couple the various modes into one model; therefore, they are limited in their ability to inform on dynamic system level interactions. This research thesis is motivated by the need to dynamically couple the multimodal freight transportation system to operate at multiple spatial and temporal scales. It is part of a larger research program to develop a systems modeling framework applicable to freight transportation. This larger research program attempts to dynamically couple railroad, seaport, and highway freight transportation models. The focus of this thesis is the development of the coupled railroad and seaport models. A separate volume (Wall 2010) on the development of the highway model has been completed. The model railroad and seaport was developed using Arena® simulation software and it comprises of the Ports of Savannah, GA, Charleston, NC, Jacksonville, FL, their adjacent CSX rail terminal, and connecting CSX railroads in the southeastern U.S. However, only the simulation outputs for the Port of Savannah are discussed in this paper. It should be mentioned that the modeled port layout is only conceptual; therefore, any inferences drawn from the model's outputs do not represent actual port performance. The model was run for 26 continuous simulation days, generating 141 containership calls, 147 highway truck deliveries of containers, 900 trains, and a throughput of 28,738 containers at the Port of Savannah, GA. An analysis of each train's trajectory from origin to destination shows that trains spend between 24 - 67 percent of their travel time idle on the tracks waiting for permission to move. Train parking demand analysis on the adjacent shunting area at the multimodal terminal seems to indicate that there aren't enough containers coming from the port because the demand is due to only trains waiting to load. The simulation also shows that on average it takes containerships calling at the Port of Savannah about 3.2 days to find an available dock to berth and unload containers. The observed mean turnaround time for containerships was 4.5 days. This experiment also shows that container residence time within the port and adjacent multimodal rail terminal varies widely. Residence times within the port range from about 0.2 hours to 9 hours with a mean of 1 hour. The average residence time inside the rail terminal is about 20 minutes but observations varied from as little as 2 minutes to a high of 2.5 hours. In addition, about 85 percent of container residence time in the port is spent idle. This research thesis demonstrates that it is possible to dynamically couple the different sub-models of the multimodal freight transportation system. However, there are challenges that need to be addressed by future research. The principal challenge is the development of a more efficient train movement algorithm that can incorporate the actual Direct Traffic Control (DTC) and / or Automatic Block Signal (ABS) track segmentation. Such an algorithm would likely improve the capacity estimates of the railroad network. In addition, future research should seek to reduce the high computational cost imposed by a discrete process modeling methodology and the adoption of single container resolution level for terminal operations. A methodology combining both discrete and continuous process modeling as proposed in this study could lessen computational costs and lower computer system requirements at a cost of some of the feedback capabilities of the model This tradeoff must be carefully examined.M.S.Committee Chair: Rodgers, Michael; Committee Member: Guensler, Randall; Committee Member: Hunter, Michae

Study on Delay Distribution of Trains

This Thesis presents the reduction of strength to the Indian railway system by identifying passenger train delay. Now days, not all trains come on time at every station; it may delay anywhere in the given route due to operational problems or due to another train. The current timetable in India of Indian Railways demands dense traffic at various nodes on a network in sections and complex national and international dependencies. Delay studies are very useful for finding out the efficiency of work, system and other operations. Identifying delay distribution of train is helpful to measure reliability of trains and railway system. Adding more trains to the calendar could cause danger to its stability in delay timings. This analysis is very useful to locate and eliminate some serious disturbances at various locations. A full range analysis of this data can lead to better identification of various delays and analysis their context. Contrast the distribution of arrival and departure timings of the train in Different stations by using delay studie

Railway Network Delay Evolution: A Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network Approach

Railway operations involve different types of entities (stations, trains, etc.), making the existing graph/network models with homogenous nodes (i.e., the same kind of nodes) incapable of capturing the interactions between the entities. This paper aims to develop a heterogeneous graph neural network (HetGNN) model, which can address different types of nodes (i.e., heterogeneous nodes), to investigate the train delay evolution on railway networks. To this end, a graph architecture combining the HetGNN model and the GraphSAGE homogeneous GNN (HomoGNN), called SAGE-Het, is proposed. The aim is to capture the interactions between trains, trains and stations, and stations and other stations on delay evolution based on different edges. In contrast to the traditional methods that require the inputs to have constant dimensions (e.g., in rectangular or grid-like arrays) or only allow homogeneous nodes in the graph, SAGE-Het allows for flexible inputs and heterogeneous nodes. The data from two sub-networks of the China railway network are applied to test the performance and robustness of the proposed SAGE-Het model. The experimental results show that SAGE-Het exhibits better performance than the existing delay prediction methods and some advanced HetGNNs used for other prediction tasks; the predictive performances of SAGE-Het under different prediction time horizons (10/20/30 min ahead) all outperform other baseline methods; Specifically, the influences of train interactions on delay propagation are investigated based on the proposed model. The results show that train interactions become subtle when the train headways increase . This finding directly contributes to decision-making in the situation where conflict-resolution or train-canceling actions are needed.Comment: 29 pages; 8 figures; 7 table

Systemic risk approach to mitigate delay cascading in railway networks

In public railway systems, minor disruptions can trigger cascading events that lead to delays in the entire system. Typically, delays originate and propagate because the equipment is blocking ways, operational units are unavailable, or at the wrong place at the needed time. The specific understanding of the origins and processes involved in delay-spreading is still a challenge, even though large-scale simulations of national railway systems are becoming available on a highly detailed scale. Without this understanding, efficient management of delay propagation, a growing concern in some Western countries, will remain impossible. Here, we present a systemic risk-based approach to manage daily delay cascading on national scales. We compute the {\em systemic impact} of every train as the maximum of all delays it could possibly cause due to its interactions with other trains, infrastructure, and operational units. To compute it, we design an effective impact network where nodes are train services and links represent interactions that could cause delays. Our results are not only consistent with highly detailed and computationally intensive agent-based railway simulations but also allow us to pinpoint and identify the causes of delay cascades in detail. The systemic approach reveals structural weaknesses in railway systems whenever shared resources are involved. We use the systemic impact to optimally allocate additional shared resources to the system to reduce delays with minimal costs and effort. The method offers a practical and intuitive solution for delay management by optimizing the effective impact network through the introduction of new cheap local train services.Comment: 27 pages, 14 figure

Discrete Event Simulation and Optimization Approaches for the Predictive Maintenance of Railway Infrastructure

This thesis is carried out within the PhD Course in Logistics and Transport at CIELI - Italian Centre of Excellence on Logistics, Transport and Infrastructures, University of Genoa. In this work, a discrete event simulation and optimization model is created to schedule the predictive maintenance activities. Nowadays, after a severe decrease of transport demand during the pandemic period, rail public transport is resuming a central role for both freight and passenger transport. To cope with this increase in demand, to maintain high safety standards and to avoid unnecessary costs, the idea is to switch to predictive maintenance strategy, intervening before an asset failure and when it has reached a certain state of degradation. The degradation and asset future conditions are predicted according to probabilistic models and maintenance deadlines are defined by applying a risk based approach. The problem is first formulated as a MILP (Mixed Integer Linear Programming) optimization problem and then transformed into a simulation-based optimization problem using the ExtendSim software. Different simulative models are created to take into account the stochastic nature of some variables in real processes. After the formal description of the models, some real-world applications are presented. Finally, considerations on the proposed approach are reported highlighting limits and challenges in predictive maintenance planning, such as lack of data and the stochastic and complex environment