Modelling uncertainty in production processes using non-singleton fuzzification and fuzzy cognitive maps - a virgin olive oil case study

Decision support systems (DSSs) are a convenient tool to aid plant operators in the selection of process set points. Inputs to these systems for variables that are not easily measured online often come from assessments made by experts, with an associated degree of uncertainty. The application of fuzzy sets and systems as part of DSSs provides a systematic approach to addressing the uncertainty in its variables. This paper builds on prior work on DSSs utilising fuzzy cognitive maps and introduces a non-singleton fuzzification stage which directly addresses uncertainty in system inputs. The motivation of the proposed system is grounded in the real world challenges of producing high-quality olive oil and the paper provides promising application and analysis results as part of the Virgin Olive Oil Production Process

Human Factors in Agile Software Development

Through our four years experiments on students' Scrum based agile software development (ASD) process, we have gained deep understanding into the human factors of agile methodology. We designed an agile project management tool - the HASE collaboration development platform to support more than 400 students self-organized into 80 teams to practice ASD. In this thesis, Based on our experiments, simulations and analysis, we contributed a series of solutions and insights in this researches, including 1) a Goal Net based method to enhance goal and requirement management for ASD process, 2) a novel Simple Multi-Agent Real-Time (SMART) approach to enhance intelligent task allocation for ASD process, 3) a Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) based method to enhance emotion and morale management for ASD process, 4) the first large scale in-depth empirical insights on human factors in ASD process which have not yet been well studied by existing research, and 5) the first to identify ASD process as a human-computation system that exploit human efforts to perform tasks that computers are not good at solving. On the other hand, computers can assist human decision making in the ASD process.Comment: Book Draf

Підтримка прийняття рішень в слабкоструктурованих системах

Магістерська дисертація: 97 с., 11 рис., 77 табл., 37 джерел, 1 додаток. Актуальність. В даний час розроблено багато різних програм систем підтримки прийняття рішень. Найбільш важкими для аналізу та підтримки прийняття рішень є слабкоструктуровані системи, які типові для різних сфер діяльності людини. Більшість характеристик в таких слабко структурованих системах подаються лише якісно, а не чисельно. Для аналізу ситуацій і створення альтернативних стратегій поведінки виявити основні концепти, зв'язків між ними і сили впливу одних концептів на інші. У слабкоструктурованих ситуаціях цей процес повинен відбуватися за участі експертів і комп’ютерної підтримки, тому що робота в складних предметних областях є дуже трудомісткою. Сучасні системи підтримки прийняття рішення, призначені для роботи в слабкоструктурованих ситуаціях, крім використання методів аналізу, оцінки і генерації альтернативних стратегій поведінки, повинні включати методи структуризації системи, розвинений інтерфейс користувача для роботи з експертами, засоби створення, редагування та візуалізацію моделей. Системи, які задовольняють таким вимогам, в даний час, в процесі становлення, тому проблема підтримки прийняття рішення в слабко структурованих системах є актуальною. Зв'язок роботи з науковими програмами, планами, темами. Робота виконувалась на кафедрі автоматизованих систем обробки інформації та управління Національного технічного університету України «Київський політехнічний інститут ім. Ігоря Сікорського» в рамках теми «Створення засобів імітаційного моделювання дискретно-подійних систем» (державний реєстраційний номер 0117U000923). Мета дослідження – полегшення прийняття рішень в слабкоструктурованих системах. Для досягнення мети необхідно виконати наступні завдання: дослідити предметне середовище; провести аналіз можливих методів розв’язання задачі підтримки прийняття рішень; визначити можливість застосування існуючих методів в задачі підтримки прийняття рішень в слабкоструктурованих системах; сформулювати постановку задачі підтримки прийняття рішень з використання нечітких інтервальних оцінок; розробити систему підтримки прийняття рішень в слабкоструктурованих системах. Об’єкт дослідження – процеси прийняття рішень в слабкоструктурованих системах. Предмет дослідження – методи прийняття рішення в слабкоструктурованих системах. Наукова новизна одержаних результатів полягає у модифікації методу аналізу ієрархій, а саме можливості інтервальної оцінки критерії та альтернатив. Публікації. Матеріали роботи опубліковані в тезах на 3-ї всеукраїнській науково-практичній конференції молодих вчених та студентів «Інформаційні системи та технології управління» (ІСТУ-2019).Actuality. Many different programs of decision support systems are currently being developed. The most difficult to analyze and support decision-making are poorly structured systems, which are typical of different areas of human activity. Most of the characteristics of such poorly structured systems are only qualitative, not numerical. To analyze situations and create alternative behavioral strategies, identify the basic concepts, the relationships between them, and the power of influence of one concept on another. In weakly-structured situations, this process has to be done with the help of experts and computer support, because working in complex subject areas is very time-consuming. Modern decision support systems designed to work in poorly structured situations, in addition to using methods of analysis, evaluation and generation of alternative behavior strategies, should include methods of system structuring, advanced user interface for working with experts, tools for creating, editing and visualizing models. Systems that meet these requirements are now in the making, so the problem of decision support in poorly structured systems is urgent. Relationship with working with scientific programs, plans, topics. The work was performed at the Department of Computer-Aided Management And Data Processing Systems of the National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute» within the topic «Creation of simulation tools for discrete event systems» (state registration number 0117U000923). The goal is facilitating decision making in weakly structured systems. To achieve this goal, the following tasks must be completed: – investigate the subject environment; – analyze possible methods for solving the decision support problem; – determine the possibility of using existing methods in the decision support problem in weakly structured systems; – formulate the formulation of the decision support problem using fuzzy interval estimates; – develop a decision-making support system in a weakly structured system. The object of research is decision-making processes in weakly structured systems. The subject of research is decision-making methods in a weakly structured system. The scientific novelty of the obtained results is a modification of the method of analysis of hierarchies, namely the possibility of interval evaluation of criteria and alternatives. Publications. The materials of the work were published in the abstracts at the 3rd All-Ukrainian Scientific and Practical Conference of Young Scientists and Students "Information Systems and Technologies of Management" (ISTU-2019)

Locating Mobile Telecommunication Facilities in Extreme Events Evacuation

Large regional evacuations caused by severe weather such as hurricane’s and tsunami’s are fraught with complexity, uncertainty and risk. During such events, evacuees have to make decisions on route planning and point-of-destination while emergency managers need to ensure that appropriate personnel and infrastructure are available and capable of facilitating the evacuation. In parallel, the widespread usage of social media and micro-blogs enabled by mobile technology is leading to more dynamic decision-making and real-time communication by evacuees. This research uses deterministic and simulation techniques to model regional hurricane evacuation. A mixed integer formulation for telecommunication equipment location is used to identify gaps or strains in mobile service and to locate mobile telecommunications equipment to temporarily alleviate system stress. This problem unifies location allocation and routing characteristics with signal interference processing to maximize the number of served users through the evacuation. A Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP) metaheuristic and a Lagrangian Relaxation-based heuristic are used to solve larger problem instances. Agent-based simulation modeling is used to investigate the reliability, robustness and effectiveness of telecommunications equipment location given the inherent diversity and uncertainty of individual decision-making during evacuation. The agent-based simulation adopts Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to model individual evacuation decision-making that dynamically integrates external information (e.g., physical environment, interpersonal communication) and internal data (e.g., historical empirical, demographic trends). This research shows how social communication among evacuees positively impacts travel patterns as well as overall evacuation time and the usage of mobile telecommunications equipment

Contribution to the modeling and automatic control of the virgin olive oil elaboration process

[ES] El proceso de elaboración de aceite de oliva virgen es un proceso industrial relativamente complejo, con distintas variables implicadas y objetivos dicotómicos. En esta tesis se propone el uso de modelado borroso para la construcción de un modelo del proceso. Posteriormente, y basándose en este modelo, se plantean problemas de optimización para construir un sistema de ayuda a la decisión para asistir al operador de la almazara en la decisión de qué objetivo de elaboración establecer, qué valores de referencia asignar a las variables de proceso para alcanzar dicho objetivo, y cómo se deben modificar estos valores de referencia en el caso de que no se alcanzara exactamente el objetivo fijado.[EN]The virgin olive oil elaboration process is a somewhat complex industrial process, with several variables involved and dichotomic production objectives. In this thesis, fuzzy modeling based on expert knowledge is used to construct a model of the process. Then, an optimization approach based on this model is used to construct a decision support system to assist the operator of the plant in the decisions of what production objective choose, which set points of the process variables enable reaching that objective, and how should those set points be modified if the production objective is not met.Tesis Univ. Jaén. Departamento de Ingeniería Electrónica y Automática, leída el 3 de junio de 201

Education and production: a generative model

This work critically examines the place of the education/production\ud relationship in 'the new sociology of education' and associated Marxist\ud theories. The assumptions of these approaches are explicated and placed\ud within a particular paradigm. It is argued that a number of important\ud problems associated with this paradigm result from its being grounded in\ud a distinctive 'philosophical problem field' which, whilst ostensibly rejecting\ud 'positivist sociology', retains the basic categories of positivist doctrine.\ud Bhaskar's realist theory of science is presented as an alternative framework,\ud and Boudon's account of structuralism and Bernstein's classification and\ud framing theory are discussed in realist terms. This alternative perspective\ud is developed in relation to the sociology of education on the basis of the works\ud of Bernstein, Bourdieu and Boudon and a review of contemporary, comparative\ud and historical material on the relationship between education and production\ud (including works on labour markets, income distribution, work-life patterns,\ud elasticities of substitution of labour, and social mobility) and on the effects of\ud changes and variations in educational practices and characteristics of pupil\ud groups. The role of 'the world of work' in the curriculum is discussed with\ud reference to social education, work experience, vocational preparation and\ud social and life skills training. The period covered Is from the Newsom Report\ud to the present day and the advent of the Youth Training Scheme. It is argued\ud that these developments and the phenomena of class and gender differentials in\ud educational attainment should be discussed in terms of a culturalist perspective which relates pupils' educational and occupational decision-making to\ud occupational communities and labour-markets. This is developed through\ud a discussion of consumption and related to Marx's labour theory of value

Transformation of Cognitive Maps

Cognitive maps (CMs), fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), and dynamical cognitive networks (DCNs) are related tools for modeling the cognition of human beings and facilitating machine inferences accordingly. FCMs extend CMs, and DCNs extend FCMs. Domain experts often face the challenge that CMs/FCMs are not sufficiently capable in many applications and that DCNs are too complex. This paper presents a simplified DCN (sDCN) that extends the modeling capability of FCM/CM, yet maintains simplicity. Additionally, this paper proves that there exists a theoretical equivalence among models in the cognitive map family of CMs, FCMs, and sDCNs. It shows that every sDCN can be represented by an FCM or a CM, and vice versa; similarly, every FCM can be represented by a CM, and vice versa. The result shows that CMs, FCMs, and sDCNs are a family of cognitive models that differs from many extended models. This paper also provides a constructive approach to transforming one cognitive map model into other cognitive map models in the family. Therefore, domain experts are able to model applications with more descriptive sDCNs and leave theoretical analysis to the simpler CM forms. The existence of theoretical transformation links among the models provides strong support for their theoretical analysis and flexibility in their applications