Trajectory Synthesis for Fisher Information Maximization

Estimation of model parameters in a dynamic system can be significantly improved with the choice of experimental trajectory. For general, nonlinear dynamic systems, finding globally "best" trajectories is typically not feasible; however, given an initial estimate of the model parameters and an initial trajectory, we present a continuous-time optimization method that produces a locally optimal trajectory for parameter estimation in the presence of measurement noise. The optimization algorithm is formulated to find system trajectories that improve a norm on the Fisher information matrix. A double-pendulum cart apparatus is used to numerically and experimentally validate this technique. In simulation, the optimized trajectory increases the minimum eigenvalue of the Fisher information matrix by three orders of magnitude compared to the initial trajectory. Experimental results show that this optimized trajectory translates to an order of magnitude improvement in the parameter estimate error in practice.Comment: 12 page

Least Squares Shadowing sensitivity analysis of chaotic limit cycle oscillations

The adjoint method, among other sensitivity analysis methods, can fail in chaotic dynamical systems. The result from these methods can be too large, often by orders of magnitude, when the result is the derivative of a long time averaged quantity. This failure is known to be caused by ill-conditioned initial value problems. This paper overcomes this failure by replacing the initial value problem with the well-conditioned "least squares shadowing (LSS) problem". The LSS problem is then linearized in our sensitivity analysis algorithm, which computes a derivative that converges to the derivative of the infinitely long time average. We demonstrate our algorithm in several dynamical systems exhibiting both periodic and chaotic oscillations.Comment: submitted to JCP in revised for

Parameter estimation for macroscopic pedestrian dynamics models from microscopic data

In this paper we develop a framework for parameter estimation in macroscopic pedestrian models using individual trajectories -- microscopic data. We consider a unidirectional flow of pedestrians in a corridor and assume that the velocity decreases with the average density according to the fundamental diagram. Our model is formed from a coupling between a density dependent stochastic differential equation and a nonlinear partial differential equation for the density, and is hence of McKean--Vlasov type. We discuss identifiability of the parameters appearing in the fundamental diagram from trajectories of individuals, and we introduce optimization and Bayesian methods to perform the identification. We analyze the performance of the developed methodologies in various situations, such as for different in- and outflow conditions, for varying numbers of individual trajectories and for differing channel geometries

Sampling-based Motion Planning for Active Multirotor System Identification

This paper reports on an algorithm for planning trajectories that allow a multirotor micro aerial vehicle (MAV) to quickly identify a set of unknown parameters. In many problems like self calibration or model parameter identification some states are only observable under a specific motion. These motions are often hard to find, especially for inexperienced users. Therefore, we consider system model identification in an active setting, where the vehicle autonomously decides what actions to take in order to quickly identify the model. Our algorithm approximates the belief dynamics of the system around a candidate trajectory using an extended Kalman filter (EKF). It uses sampling-based motion planning to explore the space of possible beliefs and find a maximally informative trajectory within a user-defined budget. We validate our method in simulation and on a real system showing the feasibility and repeatability of the proposed approach. Our planner creates trajectories which reduce model parameter convergence time and uncertainty by a factor of four.Comment: Published at ICRA 2017. Video available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtqrWbgep5