Methods to Improve the Prediction Accuracy and Performance of Ensemble Models

The application of ensemble predictive models has been an important research area in predicting medical diagnostics, engineering diagnostics, and other related smart devices and related technologies. Most of the current predictive models are complex and not reliable despite numerous efforts in the past by the research community. The performance accuracy of the predictive models have not always been realised due to many factors such as complexity and class imbalance. Therefore there is a need to improve the predictive accuracy of current ensemble models and to enhance their applications and reliability and non-visual predictive tools. The research work presented in this thesis has adopted a pragmatic phased approach to propose and develop new ensemble models using multiple methods and validated the methods through rigorous testing and implementation in different phases. The first phase comprises of empirical investigations on standalone and ensemble algorithms that were carried out to ascertain their performance effects on complexity and simplicity of the classifiers. The second phase comprises of an improved ensemble model based on the integration of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) and AdaBoost algorithms. The third phase comprises of an extended model based on early stop concepts, AdaBoost algorithm, and statistical performance of the training samples to minimize overfitting performance of the proposed model. The fourth phase comprises of an enhanced analytical multivariate logistic regression predictive model developed to minimize the complexity and improve prediction accuracy of logistic regression model. To facilitate the practical application of the proposed models; an ensemble non-invasive analytical tool is proposed and developed. The tool links the gap between theoretical concepts and practical application of theories to predict breast cancer survivability. The empirical findings suggested that: (1) increasing the complexity and topology of algorithms does not necessarily lead to a better algorithmic performance, (2) boosting by resampling performs slightly better than boosting by reweighting, (3) the prediction accuracy of the proposed ensemble EKF-RBFN-AdaBoost model performed better than several established ensemble models, (4) the proposed early stopped model converges faster and minimizes overfitting better compare with other models, (5) the proposed multivariate logistic regression concept minimizes the complexity models (6) the performance of the proposed analytical non-invasive tool performed comparatively better than many of the benchmark analytical tools used in predicting breast cancers and diabetics ailments. The research contributions to ensemble practice are: (1) the integration and development of EKF, RBFN and AdaBoost algorithms as an ensemble model, (2) the development and validation of ensemble model based on early stop concepts, AdaBoost, and statistical concepts of the training samples, (3) the development and validation of predictive logistic regression model based on breast cancer, and (4) the development and validation of a non-invasive breast cancer analytic tools based on the proposed and developed predictive models in this thesis. To validate prediction accuracy of ensemble models, in this thesis the proposed models were applied in modelling breast cancer survivability and diabetics’ diagnostic tasks. In comparison with other established models the simulation results of the models showed improved predictive accuracy. The research outlines the benefits of the proposed models, whilst proposes new directions for future work that could further extend and improve the proposed models discussed in this thesis

Otimização multi-objetivo em aprendizado de máquina

Orientador: Fernando José Von ZubenTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: Regressão logística multinomial regularizada, classificação multi-rótulo e aprendizado multi-tarefa são exemplos de problemas de aprendizado de máquina em que objetivos conflitantes, como funções de perda e penalidades que promovem regularização, devem ser simultaneamente minimizadas. Portanto, a perspectiva simplista de procurar o modelo de aprendizado com o melhor desempenho deve ser substituída pela proposição e subsequente exploração de múltiplos modelos de aprendizado eficientes, cada um caracterizado por um compromisso (trade-off) distinto entre os objetivos conflitantes. Comitês de máquinas e preferências a posteriori do tomador de decisão podem ser implementadas visando explorar adequadamente este conjunto diverso de modelos de aprendizado eficientes, em busca de melhoria de desempenho. A estrutura conceitual multi-objetivo para aprendizado de máquina é suportada por três etapas: (1) Modelagem multi-objetivo de cada problema de aprendizado, destacando explicitamente os objetivos conflitantes envolvidos; (2) Dada a formulação multi-objetivo do problema de aprendizado, por exemplo, considerando funções de perda e termos de penalização como objetivos conflitantes, soluções eficientes e bem distribuídas ao longo da fronteira de Pareto são obtidas por um solver determinístico e exato denominado NISE (do inglês Non-Inferior Set Estimation); (3) Esses modelos de aprendizado eficientes são então submetidos a um processo de seleção de modelos que opera com preferências a posteriori, ou a filtragem e agregação para a síntese de ensembles. Como o NISE é restrito a problemas de dois objetivos, uma extensão do NISE capaz de lidar com mais de dois objetivos, denominada MONISE (do inglês Many-Objective NISE), também é proposta aqui, sendo uma contribuição adicional que expande a aplicabilidade da estrutura conceitual proposta. Para atestar adequadamente o mérito da nossa abordagem multi-objetivo, foram realizadas investigações mais específicas, restritas à aprendizagem de modelos lineares regularizados: (1) Qual é o mérito relativo da seleção a posteriori de um único modelo de aprendizado, entre os produzidos pela nossa proposta, quando comparado com outras abordagens de modelo único na literatura? (2) O nível de diversidade dos modelos de aprendizado produzidos pela nossa proposta é superior àquele alcançado por abordagens alternativas dedicadas à geração de múltiplos modelos de aprendizado? (3) E quanto à qualidade de predição da filtragem e agregação dos modelos de aprendizado produzidos pela nossa proposta quando aplicados a: (i) classificação multi-classe, (ii) classificação desbalanceada, (iii) classificação multi-rótulo, (iv) aprendizado multi-tarefa, (v) aprendizado com multiplos conjuntos de atributos? A natureza determinística de NISE e MONISE, sua capacidade de lidar adequadamente com a forma da fronteira de Pareto em cada problema de aprendizado, e a garantia de sempre obter modelos de aprendizado eficientes são aqui pleiteados como responsáveis pelos resultados promissores alcançados em todas essas três frentes de investigação específicasAbstract: Regularized multinomial logistic regression, multi-label classification, and multi-task learning are examples of machine learning problems in which conflicting objectives, such as losses and regularization penalties, should be simultaneously minimized. Therefore, the narrow perspective of looking for the learning model with the best performance should be replaced by the proposition and further exploration of multiple efficient learning models, each one characterized by a distinct trade-off among the conflicting objectives. Committee machines and a posteriori preferences of the decision-maker may be implemented to properly explore this diverse set of efficient learning models toward performance improvement. The whole multi-objective framework for machine learning is supported by three stages: (1) The multi-objective modelling of each learning problem, explicitly highlighting the conflicting objectives involved; (2) Given the multi-objective formulation of the learning problem, for instance, considering loss functions and penalty terms as conflicting objective functions, efficient solutions well-distributed along the Pareto front are obtained by a deterministic and exact solver named NISE (Non-Inferior Set Estimation); (3) Those efficient learning models are then subject to a posteriori model selection, or to ensemble filtering and aggregation. Given that NISE is restricted to two objective functions, an extension for many objectives, named MONISE (Many Objective NISE), is also proposed here, being an additional contribution and expanding the applicability of the proposed framework. To properly access the merit of our multi-objective approach, more specific investigations were conducted, restricted to regularized linear learning models: (1) What is the relative merit of the a posteriori selection of a single learning model, among the ones produced by our proposal, when compared with other single-model approaches in the literature? (2) Is the diversity level of the learning models produced by our proposal higher than the diversity level achieved by alternative approaches devoted to generating multiple learning models? (3) What about the prediction quality of ensemble filtering and aggregation of the learning models produced by our proposal on: (i) multi-class classification, (ii) unbalanced classification, (iii) multi-label classification, (iv) multi-task learning, (v) multi-view learning? The deterministic nature of NISE and MONISE, their ability to properly deal with the shape of the Pareto front in each learning problem, and the guarantee of always obtaining efficient learning models are advocated here as being responsible for the promising results achieved in all those three specific investigationsDoutoradoEngenharia de ComputaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétrica2014/13533-0FAPES

On the improvement of complexity time and detection rate of outlier detectors : an unsupervised ensemble perspective

This thesis presents two unsupervised algorithms to detect outlier observations whose aberrant behavior is hidden in lower dimensional subspaces or cannot be identified with the use of a single detector. In particular, we contemplated three facets: first, the difficulty of a single detector to identify different types of outliers; second, the propensity of interesting outliers to hide in low dimensional subspaces; third, the impact that distinct distance measures have on the outlier detection process. The ambition of the proposed algorithms is to improve our understanding about data observations whose outlier behavior is not evident using simple outlier detection algorithms. Accordingly, we addressed three specific problems. First, we propose to design an ensemble based on different types of outlier detectors with a set of weights assigned without supervision. Second, we propose an ensemble to identify observations whose outlier behavior is visible only on specific subspaces. Third, we develop a scheme to understand how a single detector or an ensemble of outlier detectors is influenced by the selection of a distance metric and its interaction with different dimensionalities, data sizes, parameter settings or ensemble components. There is a wide availability of algorithms aimed at detecting outliers. However, the number of unsupervised ensemble approaches is limited and are mainly oriented towards the detection of a specific type of outlier. Accordingly, our first goal is to detect, in a unsupervised manner, distinct type of outlying observations. We propose an approach capable of using the output of different types of detectors, assigning specific weights to each detector depending on an internal evaluation (unsupervised) of the ability that each algorithm has on the specific dataset at hand; furthermore, this approach assigns a second weight to each data observation in order to increase the gap between outlier and inliers, further improving the outlier detection rate. The main contribution of this work is an ensemble of outlier detectors, whose components can be based on different assumptions, with an enhanced outlier detection rate when compared with similar single and ensemble approaches for outlier detection. Nonetheless, our approach exhibits a processing time linearly dependent on the number of ensemble components; this behavior is not exclusive of our approach, being instead prevalent in the ensemble outlier detection literature. The second part of this thesis focuses on the detection of a complex type of outliers, known in the literature as interesting outliers, which are detectable only on specific subspaces of the data, on the contrary simple outliers are detectable on full dimensionality. Since our first approach was unable to efficiently detect this type of outlier, our second goal is the detection of lower dimensional outliers in a computationally efficient time. We propose an unsupervised ensemble based on different subspaces and subsamples of data which provides a higher detection rate and is computationally more efficient than similar ensemble approaches; in some cases, our approach is even better to that of a single execution of a simple outlier detection algorithm. The main contributions of this work are the possibility of detecting lower dimensional outliers within an improved processing time. The last section of this thesis is oriented towards the study of the interaction between distance metric, parameter settings, data size, dimensionality and number of ensemble components in determining the detection rate and processing time of an outlier detector. Hence, our third goal is to improve our comprehension about the multiple factors influencing an outlier detection algorithm. A set of experiments has been devised to evaluate both detection rate and processing time. The experiments cover a wide set of synthetic and real-world data scenarios. Our synthetic data experiments allow us to introduce perturbations in the size and dimensionality of the data, while real world data permits an evaluation of the effect of varying the parameter settings of an algorithm. To the best of our knowledge this is the first evaluation considering a complete set of factors, mainly distance metrics, influencing the effectiveness and efficiency of an outlier detector. The understanding achieved in this study can be a key step towards the development of new ensemble approaches or the selection and parameterization of existing ones