Beyond dynamic risk factors: Towards a comprehensive explanation of offending

The current conceptualisation of dynamic risk factors (DRF) for criminal offending is problematic. There have been significant conceptual issues highlighted in this domain, however, until recently addressing these has not been a priority for researchers. Instead, research has predominantly focused on the success of DRF in predicting reoffending and the effectiveness of treatment programmes that target these factors. DRF are typically defined as aspects of individuals and their environments that are associated with an increased likelihood of reoffending, and they are widely considered ‘plausible causes’ of criminal behaviour. It is acknowledged that this definition encompasses a wide range of individual characteristics, social processes, behaviours, and environmental features, and that these vary in their ability to explain and predict offending. The more recent interest in features that reduce risk has prompted similar discussions about the concept of protective factors (PF). Given the frequent use of, and interest in, these foundational concepts it is timely to investigate them in depth, and to address two key issues. First, both DRF and PF are broad category labels that encompass a diverse (and largely unspecified) range of psychological and contextual features and processes. Second, without a clear understanding of what exactly these constructs are, it is difficult to effectively link them to correctional research and practice. I will begin this thesis by setting out the problems with the reliance on DRF to explain offending. I will do this by exploring recent empirical findings concerning their relationship with recidivism and outlining numerous conceptual problems which make DRF poor candidates for causal explanation. I will then suggest a shift in focus, from these crime correlates to human nature and agency, and argue that this perspective is essential in explaining any behaviour. I will present a preliminary model based on agency and demonstrate the utility of this perspective in reconceptualising DRF as aspects of goal-directed behaviour. Next, I will develop a framework for continuing this theoretical research and adding depth to theories of agency. Finally, I will discuss the implications of agency theories for forensic interventions, including their integration with widely used rehabilitation models. I will conclude with an evaluation of the approaches developed throughout this thesis and make some suggestions for future research. This research holds promise in directing the field away from the otherwise inevitable theoretical ‘dead end’

Beyond dynamic risk factors: Towards a comprehensive explanation of offending

The current conceptualisation of dynamic risk factors (DRF) for criminal offending is problematic. There have been significant conceptual issues highlighted in this domain, however, until recently addressing these has not been a priority for researchers. Instead, research has predominantly focused on the success of DRF in predicting reoffending and the effectiveness of treatment programmes that target these factors. DRF are typically defined as aspects of individuals and their environments that are associated with an increased likelihood of reoffending, and they are widely considered ‘plausible causes’ of criminal behaviour. It is acknowledged that this definition encompasses a wide range of individual characteristics, social processes, behaviours, and environmental features, and that these vary in their ability to explain and predict offending. The more recent interest in features that reduce risk has prompted similar discussions about the concept of protective factors (PF). Given the frequent use of, and interest in, these foundational concepts it is timely to investigate them in depth, and to address two key issues. First, both DRF and PF are broad category labels that encompass a diverse (and largely unspecified) range of psychological and contextual features and processes. Second, without a clear understanding of what exactly these constructs are, it is difficult to effectively link them to correctional research and practice. I will begin this thesis by setting out the problems with the reliance on DRF to explain offending. I will do this by exploring recent empirical findings concerning their relationship with recidivism and outlining numerous conceptual problems which make DRF poor candidates for causal explanation. I will then suggest a shift in focus, from these crime correlates to human nature and agency, and argue that this perspective is essential in explaining any behaviour. I will present a preliminary model based on agency and demonstrate the utility of this perspective in reconceptualising DRF as aspects of goal-directed behaviour. Next, I will develop a framework for continuing this theoretical research and adding depth to theories of agency. Finally, I will discuss the implications of agency theories for forensic interventions, including their integration with widely used rehabilitation models. I will conclude with an evaluation of the approaches developed throughout this thesis and make some suggestions for future research. This research holds promise in directing the field away from the otherwise inevitable theoretical ‘dead end’

Social Simulation and Analysis of the Dynamics of Criminal Hot Spots

Within the field of Criminology, the spatio-temporal dynamics of crime are an important subject of study. In this area, typical questions are how the behaviour of offenders, targets, and guardians can be explained and predicted, as well as the emergence and displacement of criminal hot spots. In this article we present a combination of software tools that can be used as an experimental environment to address such questions. In particular, these tools comprise an agent-based simulation model, a verification tool, and a visualisation tool. The agent-based simulation model specifically focuses on the interplay between hot spots and reputation. Using this environment, a large number of simulation runs have been performed, of which results have been formally analysed. Based on these results, we argue that the presented environment offers a valuable approach to analyse the dynamics of criminal hot spots.Agent-Based Modelling, Criminal Hot Spots, Displacement, Reputation, Social Simulation, Analysis

Social neuroscience in psychiatry: unravelling the neural mechanisms of social dysfunction

Social neuroscience is a flourishing, interdisciplinary field that investigates the underlying biological processes of social cognition and behaviour. The recent application of social neuroscience to psychiatric research advances our understanding of various psychiatric illnesses that are characterized by impairments in social cognition and social functioning. In addition, the upcoming line of social neuroscience research provides new techniques to design and evaluate treatment interventions that are aimed at improving patients’ social lives. This review provides a contemporary overview of social neuroscience in psychiatry. We draw together the major findings about the neural mechanisms of social cognitive processes directed at understanding others and social interactions in psychiatric illnesses and discuss their implications for future research and clinical practice

Annual Report 2014

This document is a compendium of the research activity carried out by the IR3C during the year 2014, and describes its eleven Research Groups of Excellence, the two lines of research, the publications, funded projects, patents, and other activities within this period

Social Simulation and Analysis of the Dynamics of Criminal Hot Spots

Contains fulltext : 194199.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)Within the field of Criminology, the spatio-temporal dynamics of crime are an important subject of study. In this area, typical questions are how the behaviour of offenders, targets, and guardians can be explained and predicted, as well as the emergence and displacement of criminal hot spots. In this article we present a combination of software tools that can be used as an experimental environment to address such questions. In particular, these tools comprise an agent-based simulation model, a verification tool, and a visualisation tool. The agent-based simulation model specifically focuses on the interplay between hot spots and reputation. Using this environment, a large number of simulation runs have been performed, of which results have been formally analysed. Based on these results, we argue that the presented environment offers a valuable approach to analyse the dynamics of criminal hot spots.19 p

Modeling Social Learning: An Agent-Based Approach

Learning is the process of acquiring or modifying knowledge, behavior, or skills. The ability to learn is inherent to humans, animals, and plants, and even machines are provided with algorithms that could mimic in a restricted way the processes of learning. Humans learn from the time they are born until they die because of a continuous process of interaction between them and their environment. Behavioral Psychology Theories and Social Learning Theories study behavior learned from the environment and social interactions through stimulus-response. Some computer approaches to modeling human behavior attempted to represent the learning and decision-making processes using agent-based models. This dissertation develops a computer model for social learning that allows agents to exhibit behavior learned through social interactions and their environment. The use of an agent-based model allows representing a complex human system in a computer environment. Behavioral Psychology Theories and Social Learning Theories provide the explanatory theoretical framework. The learning processes are implemented using the Rescorla-Wagner Model. The learning structure is implemented using an adaptation of Agent Zero. The decision-making process is implemented using a threshold equation. A use case in youth gang homicides is developed, calibrated, validated, and used for policing and decision making through simulation of multiple case scenarios. The simulation results show the model accuracy in representing learning and decision-making processes similar to those exhibited in the complex human system represented

Secondary victims\u27 perceptions of justice : implications for forensic psychology

An emerging area of study has begun to look at the perceptions of justice of the family and friends of crime victims – or, secondary victims. It is important to improve understanding of secondary victims’ experiences of justice, partly because knowledge about how they perceive justice may help forensic psychologists assist them more effectively. This research attempted to assess how well existing justice theories could account for secondary victims’ perceptions of justice, and also help determine what is important to them. Using the largely ignored group of secondary victims of non-sexual violent crime, the research consisted of two interrelated stages. In Stage One, qualitative analysis was used to determine the justice perceptions of 22 secondary victims. The findings revealed that a combination of principles from various theories of justice were present in secondary victims’ views. However, participants also endorsed unique aspects of victimisation that did not link directly to existing theories. Importantly, many participants made primary victim and offender outcome comparisons using seven variables. Three related to the primary victim and four related to the offender. A second stage of research involved 156 potential secondary victim participants drawn from the community. They responded to a scenario involving a victim of crime, in order to determine whether they considered the same seven variables identified in Stage One in deciding whether justice had been achieved for that victim. The results showed that participants considered these variables when making comparisons of outcomes, and did so irrespective of whether they felt justice had been achieved in the given scenario. Overall, the findings of the two stages of this research represented an important step towards a more comprehensive understanding of the justice experiences and perceptions of secondary victims of violent crime, and therefore have important implications for forensic psychologists working with this group

Understanding Radicalisation

Given the considerable amount of effort and public resources invested in countering radicalisation, achieving a clearer understanding of what radicalisation is and of its causes is arguably a worthwhile and necessary endeavour. This thesis argues that such an understanding is lacking at present. Up until recently, researchers have relied upon interviews with current or former radicals in order to try and tease out those factors which might have contributed to radicalisation. As a result of the methodological approach, the focus has been upon individuals who are radicalised and their personal backgrounds, rather than on causal factors and mechanisms which might have been at work at other levels of analysis. Utilising and developing a tripartite theory of radicalisation by Bouhana and Wikström 2011, this thesis focuses on the emergence of radicalising settings. The role of so-called macro-level, or systemic, factors, which would affect the broader ecology and explain why settings propitious to radicalisation do or do not emerge in particular environments (e.g. communities) at particular times has been largely overlooked. One explanation is that such factors are rarely accessible through interviews conducted with those who commit terrorist acts. By using a relatively new methodology in the field, agent-based modelling, simulation experiments were conducted to examine the impact of collective efficacy and social disorganisation upon the emergence and maintenance of radicalisation within a setting. Systematic reviews were conducted in order to elucidate existing data for modelling parameters, while interviews with former radicals and current deradicalisation experts were carried out in order to provide new data for the model and add to a field in which this primary data is still limited. Agent-based modelling is shown to provide the field of radicalisation studies with a methodology in which to test and refine theory, scientifically examine current hypothesis and generate more by investigating potentially unexpected results from simulation experiments. This could be of great help to practitioners who seek to understand the impact of their interventions when conducting counter-radicalisation or de-radicalisation work in the future