Risk Management for the Future

A large part of academic literature, business literature as well as practices in real life are resting on the assumption that uncertainty and risk does not exist. We all know that this is not true, yet, a whole variety of methods, tools and practices are not attuned to the fact that the future is uncertain and that risks are all around us. However, despite risk management entering the agenda some decades ago, it has introduced risks on its own as illustrated by the financial crisis. Here is a book that goes beyond risk management as it is today and tries to discuss what needs to be improved further. The book also offers some cases

Detection of Anomalous Behavior of IoT/CPS Devices Using Their Power Signals

Embedded computing devices, in the Internet of Things (IoT) or Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS), are becoming pervasive in many domains around the world. Their wide deployment in simple applications (e.g., smart buildings, fleet management, and smart agriculture) or in more critical operations (e.g., industrial control, smart power grids, and self-driving cars) creates significant market potential ($ 4-11 trillion in annual revenue is expected by 2025). A main requirement for the success of such systems and applications is the capacity to ensure the performance of these devices. This task includes equipping them to be resilient against security threats and failures. Globally, several critical infrastructure applications have been the target of cyber attacks. These recent incidents, as well as the rich applicable literature, confirm that more research is needed to overcome such challenges. Consequently, the need for robust approaches that detect anomalous behaving devices in security and safety-critical applications has become paramount. Solving such a problem minimizes different kinds of losses (e.g., confidential data theft, financial loss, service access restriction, or even casualties). In light of the aforementioned motivation and discussion, this thesis focuses on the problem of detecting the anomalous behavior of IoT/CPS devices by considering their side-channel information. Solving such a problem is extremely important in maintaining the security and dependability of critical systems and applications. Although several side-channel based approaches are found in the literature, there are still important research gaps that need to be addressed. First, the intrusive nature of the monitoring in some of the proposed techniques results in resources overhead and requires instrumentation of the internal components of a device, which makes them impractical. It also raises a data integrity flag. Second, the lack of realistic experimental power consumption datasets that reflect the normal and anomalous behaviors of IoT and CPS devices has prevented fair and coherent comparisons with the state of the art in this domain. Finally, most of the research to date has concentrated on the accuracy of detection and not the novelty of detecting new anomalies. Such a direction relies on: (i) the availability of labeled datasets; (ii) the complexity of the extracted features; and (iii) the available compute resources. These assumptions and requirements are usually unrealistic and unrepresentative. This research aims to bridge these gaps as follows. First, this study extends the state of the art that adopts the idea of leveraging the power consumption of devices as a signal and the concept of decoupling the monitoring system and the devices to be monitored to detect and classify the "operational health'' of the devices. Second, this thesis provides and builds power consumption-based datasets that can be utilized by AI as well as security research communities to validate newly developed detection techniques. The collected datasets cover a wide range of anomalous device behavior due to the main aspects of device security (i.e., confidentiality, integrity, and availability) and partial system failures. The extensive experiments include: a wide spectrum of various emulated malware scenarios; five real malware applications taken from the well-known Drebin dataset; distributed denial of service attack (DDOS) where an IoT device is treated as: (1) a victim of a DDOS attack, and (2) the source of a DDOS attack; cryptomining malware where the resources of an IoT device are being hijacked to be used to advantage of the attacker’s wish and desire; and faulty CPU cores. This level of extensive validation has not yet been reported in any study in the literature. Third, this research presents a novel supervised technique to detect anomalous device behavior based on transforming the problem into an image classification problem. The main aim of this methodology is to improve the detection performance. In order to achieve the goals of this study, the methodology combines two powerful computer vision tools, namely Histograms of Oriented Gradients (HOG) and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Such a detection technique is not only useful in this present case but can contribute to most time-series classification (TSC) problems. Finally, this thesis proposes a novel unsupervised detection technique that requires only the normal behavior of a device in the training phase. Therefore, this methodology aims at detecting new/unseen anomalous behavior. The methodology leverages the power consumption of a device and Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) AutoEncoders (AE) to build a model that makes them more robust to the presence of security threats. The methodology makes use of stacked RBM AE and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to extract feature vector based on AE's reconstruction errors. A One-Class Support Vector Machine (OC-SVM) classifier is then trained to perform the detection task. Across 18 different datasets, both of our proposed detection techniques demonstrated high detection performance with at least ~ 88% accuracy and 85% F-Score on average. The empirical results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques and demonstrated improved detection performance gain of 9% - 17% over results reported in other methods

High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications

This open access book was prepared as a Final Publication of the COST Action IC1406 “High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications (cHiPSet)“ project. Long considered important pillars of the scientific method, Modelling and Simulation have evolved from traditional discrete numerical methods to complex data-intensive continuous analytical optimisations. Resolution, scale, and accuracy have become essential to predict and analyse natural and complex systems in science and engineering. When their level of abstraction raises to have a better discernment of the domain at hand, their representation gets increasingly demanding for computational and data resources. On the other hand, High Performance Computing typically entails the effective use of parallel and distributed processing units coupled with efficient storage, communication and visualisation systems to underpin complex data-intensive applications in distinct scientific and technical domains. It is then arguably required to have a seamless interaction of High Performance Computing with Modelling and Simulation in order to store, compute, analyse, and visualise large data sets in science and engineering. Funded by the European Commission, cHiPSet has provided a dynamic trans-European forum for their members and distinguished guests to openly discuss novel perspectives and topics of interests for these two communities. This cHiPSet compendium presents a set of selected case studies related to healthcare, biological data, computational advertising, multimedia, finance, bioinformatics, and telecommunications

Full Proceedings, 2018

Full conference proceedings for the 2018 International Building Physics Association Conference hosted at Syracuse University

High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications

This open access book was prepared as a Final Publication of the COST Action IC1406 “High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications (cHiPSet)“ project. Long considered important pillars of the scientific method, Modelling and Simulation have evolved from traditional discrete numerical methods to complex data-intensive continuous analytical optimisations. Resolution, scale, and accuracy have become essential to predict and analyse natural and complex systems in science and engineering. When their level of abstraction raises to have a better discernment of the domain at hand, their representation gets increasingly demanding for computational and data resources. On the other hand, High Performance Computing typically entails the effective use of parallel and distributed processing units coupled with efficient storage, communication and visualisation systems to underpin complex data-intensive applications in distinct scientific and technical domains. It is then arguably required to have a seamless interaction of High Performance Computing with Modelling and Simulation in order to store, compute, analyse, and visualise large data sets in science and engineering. Funded by the European Commission, cHiPSet has provided a dynamic trans-European forum for their members and distinguished guests to openly discuss novel perspectives and topics of interests for these two communities. This cHiPSet compendium presents a set of selected case studies related to healthcare, biological data, computational advertising, multimedia, finance, bioinformatics, and telecommunications

African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

This open access book discusses current thinking and presents the main issues and challenges associated with climate change in Africa. It introduces evidences from studies and projects which show how climate change adaptation is being - and may continue to be successfully implemented in African countries. Thanks to its scope and wide range of themes surrounding climate change, the ambition is that this book will be a lead publication on the topic, which may be regularly updated and hence capture further works. Climate change is a major global challenge. However, some geographical regions are more severly affected than others. One of these regions is the African continent. Due to a combination of unfavourable socio-economic and meteorological conditions, African countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. The recently released IPCC special report "Global Warming of 1.5º C" outlines the fact that keeping global warming by the level of 1.5º C is possible, but also suggested that an increase by 2º C could lead to crises with crops (agriculture fed by rain could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020) and livestock production, could damage water supplies and pose an additonal threat to coastal areas. The 5th Assessment Report produced by IPCC predicts that wheat may disappear from Africa by 2080, and that maize— a staple—will fall significantly in southern Africa. Also, arid and semi-arid lands are likely to increase by up to 8%, with severe ramifications for livelihoods, poverty eradication and meeting the SDGs. Pursuing appropriate adaptation strategies is thus vital, in order to address the current and future challenges posed by a changing climate. It is against this background that the "African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation" is being published. It contains papers prepared by scholars, representatives from social movements, practitioners and members of governmental agencies, undertaking research and/or executing climate change projects in Africa, and working with communities across the African continent. Encompassing over 100 contribtions from across Africa, it is the most comprehensive publication on climate change adaptation in Africa ever produced

Triple Helix as a Strategic Tool to Fast-Track Climate Change Adaptation in Rural Kenya: Case Study of Marsabit County

AbstractThe lack of affordable, clean, and reliable energy in Africa's rural areas forces people to resort to poor quality energy source, which is detrimental to the people's health and prevents the economic development of communities. Moreover, access to safe water and food security are concerns closely linked to health issues and children malnourishment. Recent climate change due to global warming has worsened the already critical situation.Electricity is well known to be an enabler of development as it allows the use of modern devices thus enabling the development of not only income-generating activities but also water pumping and food processing and conservation that can promote socioeconomic growth. However, all of this is difficult to achieve due to the lack of investors, local skills, awareness by the community, and often also government regulations.All the above mentioned barriers to the uptake of electricity in rural Kenya could be solved by the coordinated effort of government, private sector, and academia, also referred to as Triple Helix, in which each entity may partially take the other's role. This chapter discretizes the above and shows how a specific county (Marsabit) has benefited from this triple intervention. Existing government policies and actions and programs led by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and international agencies are reviewed, highlighting the current interconnection and gaps in promoting integrated actions toward climate change adaptation and energy access

Plants and Plant Products in Local Markets Within Benin City and Environs

AbstractThe vulnerability of agriculture systems in Africa to climate change is directly and indirectly affecting the availability and diversity of plants and plant products available in local markets. In this chapter, markets in Benin City and environs were assessed to document the availability of plants and plant products. Markets were grouped into urban, suburban, and rural with each group having four markets. Majority of the plant and plant product vendors were women and 88 plant species belonging to 42 families were found. Their scientific and common names were documented as well as the parts of the plant and associated products available in the markets. Most of the plant and plant products found in local markets belong to major plant families. Urban markets had the highest diversity of plants and plant products. Three categories of plants and plant products were documented. Around 67% of the plants and plant products were categorized as whole plant/plant parts, 28% as processed plant parts, while 5% as reprocessed plant/plant parts. It was revealed that 86% of these plants are used as foods, 11% are for medicinal purposes, while 3% is used for other purposes. About 35% of plants and plant products across the markets were fruits, which is an indication that city and environs are a rich source of fruits. The local knowledge and practices associated with the plants and plant products can contribute towards formulating a strategic response for climate change impacts on agriculture, gender, poverty, food security, and plant diversity