Statistical modelling of software reliability

During the six-month period from 1 April 1991 to 30 September 1991 the following research papers in statistical modeling of software reliability appeared: (1) A Nonparametric Software Reliability Growth Model; (2) On the Use and the Performance of Software Reliability Growth Models; (3) Research and Development Issues in Software Reliability Engineering; (4) Special Issues on Software; and (5) Software Reliability and Safety

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Estimating the effects of water-induced shallow landslides on soil erosion

Rainfall induced landslides and soil erosion are part of a complex system of multiple interacting processes, and both are capable of significantly affecting sediment budgets. These sediment mass movements also have the potential to significantly impact on a broad network of ecosystems health, functionality and the services they provide. To support the integrated assessment of these processes it is necessary to develop reliable modelling architectures. This paper proposes a semi-quantitative integrated methodology for a robust assessment of soil erosion rates in data poor regions affected by landslide activity. It combines heuristic, empirical and probabilistic approaches. This proposed methodology is based on the geospatial semantic array programming paradigm and has been implemented on a catchment scale methodology using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial analysis tools and GNU Octave. The integrated data-transformation model relies on a modular architecture, where the information flow among modules is constrained by semantic checks. In order to improve computational reproducibility, the geospatial data transformations implemented in ESRI ArcGis are made available in the free software GRASS GIS. The proposed modelling architecture is flexible enough for future transdisciplinary scenario analysis to be more easily designed. In particular, the architecture might contribute as a novel component to simplify future integrated analyses of the potential impact of wildfires or vegetation types and distributions, on sediment transport from water induced landslides and erosion.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, published in IEEE Earthzine 2014 Vol. 7 Issue 2, 910137+ 2nd quarter theme. Geospatial Semantic Array Programming. Available: http://www.earthzine.org/?p=91013

Bayesian Updating, Model Class Selection and Robust Stochastic Predictions of Structural Response

A fundamental issue when predicting structural response by using mathematical models is how to treat both modeling and excitation uncertainty. A general framework for this is presented which uses probability as a multi-valued conditional logic for quantitative plausible reasoning in the presence of uncertainty due to incomplete information. The fundamental probability models that represent the structure’s uncertain behavior are specified by the choice of a stochastic system model class: a set of input-output probability models for the structure and a prior probability distribution over this set that quantifies the relative plausibility of each model. A model class can be constructed from a parameterized deterministic structural model by stochastic embedding utilizing Jaynes’ Principle of Maximum Information Entropy. Robust predictive analyses use the entire model class with the probabilistic predictions of each model being weighted by its prior probability, or if structural response data is available, by its posterior probability from Bayes’ Theorem for the model class. Additional robustness to modeling uncertainty comes from combining the robust predictions of each model class in a set of competing candidates weighted by the prior or posterior probability of the model class, the latter being computed from Bayes’ Theorem. This higherlevel application of Bayes’ Theorem automatically applies a quantitative Ockham razor that penalizes the data-fit of more complex model classes that extract more information from the data. Robust predictive analyses involve integrals over highdimensional spaces that usually must be evaluated numerically. Published applications have used Laplace's method of asymptotic approximation or Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms

Do System Test Cases Grow Old?

Companies increasingly use either manual or automated system testing to ensure the quality of their software products. As a system evolves and is extended with new features the test suite also typically grows as new test cases are added. To ensure software quality throughout this process the test suite is continously executed, often on a daily basis. It seems likely that newly added tests would be more likely to fail than older tests but this has not been investigated in any detail on large-scale, industrial software systems. Also it is not clear which methods should be used to conduct such an analysis. This paper proposes three main concepts that can be used to investigate aging effects in the use and failure behavior of system test cases: test case activation curves, test case hazard curves, and test case half-life. To evaluate these concepts and the type of analysis they enable we apply them on an industrial software system containing more than one million lines of code. The data sets comes from a total of 1,620 system test cases executed a total of more than half a million times over a time period of two and a half years. For the investigated system we find that system test cases stay active as they age but really do grow old; they go through an infant mortality phase with higher failure rates which then decline over time. The test case half-life is between 5 to 12 months for the two studied data sets.Comment: Updated with nicer figs without border around the