A Semiparametric Test of Agent's Information Sets for Games of Incomplete Information

We propose semiparametric tests of misspecification of agent's information for games of incomplete information. The tests use the intuition that the opponent's choices should not predict a player's choice conditional on the proposed information available to the player. The tests are designed to check against some commonly used null hypotheses (Bajari et al. (2010), Aradillas-Lopez (2010)). We show that our tests have power to discriminate between common alternatives even in small samples. We apply our tests to data on entry in the US airline industry. Both the assumptions of independent and correlated private shocks are not supported by the data

Do individuals recognize cascade behavior of others? An Experimental Study

In an information cascade experiment participants are confronted with artificial predecessors predicting in line with the BHW model (Bikchandani et al., 1992). Using the BDM (Becker et al., 1964) mechanism we study participants' probability perceptions based on maximum prices for participating in the prediction game. We find increasing maximum prices the more coinciding predictions of predecessors are observed, regardless of whether additional information is revealed by these predictions. Individual price patterns of more than two thirds of the participants indicate that cascade behavior of predecessors is not recognized

Deposit insurance and financial development

The authors examine the effect of different design features of deposit insurance, on long-run financial development, defined to include the level of financial activity, the stability of the banking sector, and the quality of resource allocation. Their empirical analysis is guided by recent theories of banking regulation, that employ an agency framework. The authors examine the effect of deposit insurance on the size, and volatility of the financial sector, in a sample of fifty eight countries. They find that generous deposit insurance, leads to financial instability in lax regulatory environments. But in sound regulatory environments, deposit insurance does have the desired impact on financial development, and growth. Thus, countries introducing a deposit insurance scheme, need to ensure that it is accompanied by a sound regulatory framework. Otherwise, the scheme will likely lead to instability, and deter financial development. In weak regulatory environments, policymakers should at least limit deposit insurance coverage.Insurance Law,Financial Intermediation,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Banks&Banking Reform,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Insurance Law,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring

Negative Hedging: Performance Sensitive Debt and CEOs’ Equity Incentives (CRI 2009-014)

We examine the relation between CEOs’ equity incentives and their use of performance-sensitive debt contracts. These contracts require higher or lower interest payments when the borrower\u27s performance deteriorates or improves, thereby increasing expected costs of financial distress while making a firm riskier to the benefit of option holders. We find that managers whose compensation is more sensitive to stock volatility choose steeper and more convex performance pricing schedules, while those with high delta incentives choose flatter, less convex pricing schedules. Performance pricing contracts therefore seem to provide a channel for managers to increase firms’ financial risk to gain private benefits

Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games with Incomplete Information

This paper studies the inference of interaction effects, i.e., the impacts of players' actions on each other's payoffs, in discrete simultaneous games with incomplete information. We propose an easily implementable test for the signs of state-dependent interaction effects that does not require parametric specifications of players' payoffs, the distributions of their private signals or the equilibrium selection mechanism. The test relies on the commonly invoked assumption that players' private signals are independent conditional on observed states. The procedure is valid in the presence of multiple equilibria, and, as a by-product of our approach, we propose a formal test for multiple equilibria in the data-generating process. We provide Monte Carlo evidence of the test's good performance in finite samples. We also implement the test to infer the direction of interaction effects in couples' joint retirement decisions using data from the Health and Retirement Study.identification, inference, multiple equilibria, incomplete information games

Do Individuals Recognize Cascade Behavior of Others? - An Experimental Study -

In an information cascade experiment participants are confronted with artificial predecessors predicting in line with the BHW model (Bikchandani et al., 1992). Using the BDM (Becker et al., 1964) mechanism we study participants' probability perceptions based on maximum prices for participating in the prediction game. We find increasing maximum prices the more coinciding predictions of predecessors are observed, regardless of whether additional information is revealed by these predictions. Individual price patterns of more than two thirds of the participants indicate that cascade behavior of predecessors is not recognized.Information Cascades, Bayes' Rule, Decision Under Risk and Uncertainty, Experimental Economics.

Social Influence and Individual Difference in Experimental Juries

In a jury decision-making, individuals must compromise in order to reach a group consensus. If individuals compromise for non-rational reasons, such as a preference for conformity or due to erroneous information, then the final decision of the group may be biased. This paper presents original experimental data which shows that groups do have a significant tendency to compromise in jury-like settings. Econometric evidence also shows that features of groups, including the generosity of the group overall, will dictate the extent of compromise. The data also reveal that individual traits such as gender and capacity for empathy are associated with the extent of compromise in a jury-type setting. The implications are that interactions between individual and group characteristics limit the objectivity of decision-making