Analytical computation of the epidemic threshold on temporal networks

The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes and affect the condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded in the epidemic threshold. Despite the great interest in the problem for the physics, applied mathematics, computer science and epidemiology communities, a full theoretical understanding is still missing and currently limited to the cases where the time-scale separation holds between spreading and network dynamics or to specific temporal network models. We consider a Markov chain description of the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible process on an arbitrary temporal network. By adopting a multilayer perspective, we develop a general analytical derivation of the epidemic threshold in terms of the spectral radius of a matrix that encodes both network structure and disease dynamics. The accuracy of the approach is confirmed on a set of temporal models and empirical networks and against numerical results. In addition, we explore how the threshold changes when varying the overall time of observation of the temporal network, so as to provide insights on the optimal time window for data collection of empirical temporal networked systems. Our framework is both of fundamental and practical interest, as it offers novel understanding of the interplay between temporal networks and spreading dynamics.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figure

Social encounter networks : collective properties and disease transmission

A fundamental challenge of modern infectious disease epidemiology is to quantify the networks of social and physical contacts through which transmission can occur. Understanding the collective properties of these interactions is critical for both accurate prediction of the spread of infection and determining optimal control measures. However, even the basic properties of such networks are poorly quantified, forcing predictions to be made based on strong assumptions concerning network structure. Here, we report on the results of a large-scale survey of social encounters mainly conducted in Great Britain. First, we characterize the distribution of contacts, which possesses a lognormal body and a power-law tail with an exponent of −2.45; we provide a plausible mechanistic model that captures this form. Analysis of the high level of local clustering of contacts reveals additional structure within the network, implying that social contacts are degree assortative. Finally, we describe the epidemiological implications of this local network structure: these contradict the usual predictions from networks with heavy-tailed degree distributions and contain public-health messages about control. Our findings help us to determine the types of realistic network structure that should be assumed in future population level studies of infection transmission, leading to better interpretations of epidemiological data and more appropriate policy decisions

Cooperation through social influence

We consider a simple and altruistic multiagent system in which the agents are eager to perform a collective task but where their real engagement depends on the willingness to perform the task of other influential agents. We model this scenario by an influence game, a cooperative simple game in which a team (or coalition) of players succeeds if it is able to convince enough agents to participate in the task (to vote in favor of a decision). We take the linear threshold model as the influence model. We show first the expressiveness of influence games showing that they capture the class of simple games. Then we characterize the computational complexity of various problems on influence games, including measures (length and width), values (Shapley-Shubik and Banzhaf) and properties (of teams and players). Finally, we analyze those problems for some particular extremal cases, with respect to the propagation of influence, showing tighter complexity characterizations.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft

Sticky Seeding in Discrete-Time Reversible-Threshold Networks

When nodes can repeatedly update their behavior (as in agent-based models from computational social science or repeated-game play settings) the problem of optimal network seeding becomes very complex. For a popular spreading-phenomena model of binary-behavior updating based on thresholds of adoption among neighbors, we consider several planning problems in the design of \textit{Sticky Interventions}: when adoption decisions are reversible, the planner aims to find a Seed Set where temporary intervention leads to long-term behavior change. We prove that completely converting a network at minimum cost is $\Omega(\ln (OPT) )$-hard to approximate and that maximizing conversion subject to a budget is $(1-\frac{1}{e})$-hard to approximate. Optimization heuristics which rely on many objective function evaluations may still be practical, particularly in relatively-sparse networks: we prove that the long-term impact of a Seed Set can be evaluated in $O(|E|^2)$ operations. For a more descriptive model variant in which some neighbors may be more influential than others, we show that under integer edge weights from $\{0,1,2,...,k\}$ objective function evaluation requires only $O(k|E|^2)$ operations. These operation bounds are based on improvements we give for bounds on time-steps-to-convergence under discrete-time reversible-threshold updates in networks.Comment: 19 pages, 2 figure

Dynamical Systems on Networks: A Tutorial

We give a tutorial for the study of dynamical systems on networks. We focus especially on "simple" situations that are tractable analytically, because they can be very insightful and provide useful springboards for the study of more complicated scenarios. We briefly motivate why examining dynamical systems on networks is interesting and important, and we then give several fascinating examples and discuss some theoretical results. We also briefly discuss dynamical systems on dynamical (i.e., time-dependent) networks, overview software implementations, and give an outlook on the field.Comment: 39 pages, 1 figure, submitted, more examples and discussion than original version, some reorganization and also more pointers to interesting direction