基于Fisher-Pry模型的纤维素预处理技术成熟度分析

为了研究纤维素预处理技术成熟度情况，基于多源文献数据利用&nbsp;Fisher-Pry&nbsp;模型对蒸汽爆破法、酸处理法、碱处理法和生物法等主要预处理技术成熟度进行了研究。结果表明，蒸汽爆破法、酸预处理法及碱预处理法从&nbsp;2005&nbsp;年之后快速展，目前基本处于成熟阶段，但由于这些方法本身存在水解产生抑制性产物、腐蚀性、成本高等缺陷，很难取得进一步的突破。生物法目前还正处于快速成长阶段，具有很大的前景，经过&nbsp;Fisher-Pry&nbsp;曲线拟合，预计生物法到&nbsp;2043&nbsp;年左右达到成熟。</p

An assessment of technology forecasting: Revisiting earlier analyses on dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)

© 2018 Elsevier Inc. The increasingly uncertain dynamics of technological change pose special challenges to traditional technology forecasting tools, which facilitates future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) tools to support the policy processes in the fields of science, technology & innovation (ST&I) and the management of technology (MOT), rather than merely forecasting incremental advances via analyses of continuous trends. Dye-sensitized solar cells are a promising third-generation photovoltaic technology that can add functionality and lower costs to enhance the value proposition of solar power generation in the early years of the 21st century. Through a series of technological forecasting studies analyzing the R&D patterns and trends in Dye-sensitized solar cells technology over the past several years, we have come to realize that validating previous forecasts is useful for improving ST&I policy processes. Yet, rarely do we revisit forecasts or projections to ascertain how well they fared. Moreover, few studies pay much attention to assessing FTA techniques. In this paper, we compare recent technology activities with previous forecasts to reveal the influencing factors that led to differences between past predictions and actual performance. Beyond our main aim of checking accuracy, in this paper we also wish to gain some sense of how valid those studies were and whether they proved useful to others in some ways

Decision-making model for designing telecom products/services based on customer preferences and non-preferences

The design of the packages of products/services to be offered by a telecom company to its clients is a complex decision-making process that must consider different criteria to achieve both customer satisfaction and optimization of the company’s resources. In this process, Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets (IFSs) can be used to manage uncertainty and better represent both preferences and non-preferences expressed by people who value each proposed alternative. We present a novel approach to design/develop new products/services that combines the Lean Six Sigma methodology with IFSs. Its main contribution comes from considering both preferences and nonpreferences expressed by real clients, whereas existing proposals only consider their preferences. By also considering their non-preferences, it provides an additional capacity to manage the high uncertainty in the selection of the commercial plan that best suits each client’s needs. Thus, client satisfaction is increased while improving the company’s corporate image, which will lead to customer loyalty and increased revenue. To validate the presented proposal, it has been applied to a real case study of the telecom sector, in which 2135 users have participated. The results obtained have been analysed and compared with those obtained with a model that does not consider the non-preferences expressed by users.Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (State Research Agency)Junta de Andalucia PID2019-103880RB-I00 PID2019-109644RB-I00 PY20_0067

The selection of technology forecasting method using a multi-criteria interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy group decision making approach

Technological forecasting is a tool for organizations to develop their technology strategies. The quality of forecasting is extremely important for the accuracy of the results and in turn company future. Therefore a proper selection methodology of forecasting technique that considers the characteristics of technology and resources needed such as cost, time is essential. On the other hand, although many forecasting techniques are available, there is a high uncertainty in choosing the most appropriate technique among a set of available techniques. In this paper interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is proposed for the solution of technological forecasting technique selection problem. The proposed method includes seven selection criteria and twelve forecasting technique alternatives. The methodology is applied for 3D TV technology. The results revealed that Fisher Pry method is found as the most appropriate method for forecasting since it has the highest closeness coefficient

Mapeamento prospectivo sobre métodos de dessulfurização oxidativa

Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (graduação)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade UnB Gama, Curso de Engenharia de Energia, 2018.A hidrodessulfurização é majoritariamente utilizada pelas indústrias petrolíferas para redução de compostos poluentes sulfurados em combustíveis como o diesel. Porém, esse procedimento só pode ser realizado em condições operacionais severas, as quais são honerosas e de difícil controle. Nesse contexto, a dessulfurização oxidativa (ODS) surge como método de tratamento com custo significativamente mais baixo e condições reacionais mais brandas. Esse trabalho tem a finalidade de mapear métodos de dessulfurização oxidativa que vem sendo validados pela comunidade científca, assim como apontar uma tendência de pesquisa sobre as condicionantes que envolvem a operação. Para isso, foram utilizados métodos de prospecção tecnológica para verificar a metodologia de ODS mais eficaz disponível na literatura científica de três bancos de dados distintos. Notou-se que o peróxido de hidrogênio é majoritariamente adotado como agente oxidante e que as pesquisas atuais trabalham principalmente na síntese e funcionalidade de catalisadores e solventes extratores.Hydrodesulfurization is mostly used by oil companies to reduce sulfur compounds in fuels such as diesel. However, this procedure can only be performed under severe operational conditions, which are expensive and difficult to control. In this context, oxidative desulfurization (ODS) appears as a treatment method with significantly lower cost and milder reaction conditions. This work has the purpose of mapping the current oxidative desulfurization methods that have been validated by the scientific comunity, as well as pointing a tendency to research for variables that involve this operation. For this, technological forecastings were used to verify the most effective ODS methodology available in the scientific literature by means of three distinct databases. It was noted that hydrogen peroxide is the most adopted oxidizing agent and the researches are mainly focused on synthesis and funcionality of catalysts and extractive solvents

Evaluation of Energy Policy Instruments for the Adoption of Renewable Energy: Case of Wind Energy in the Pacific Northwest U.S.

The wide use of renewable energy technologies for generating electricity can be seen as one way of meeting environmental and climate change challenges along with a progression to a low-carbon economy. A large number of policy instruments have been formed and employed to support the adoption of renewable energy technologies in the power generation sector. However, the success of these policies in achieving their goals relies on how effective they are in satisfying their targets and thus increasing renewable energy adoption. One measurement for effectiveness of policy instruments can be their contribution to the input of the process of renewable energy adoption and their effect on satisfying regional goal. The objective of this research is evaluate the effectiveness of energy policy instruments on increasing the adoption of renewable energy by developing a comprehensive evaluation model. Criteria used in this assessment depend on five perspectives that are perceived by decision makers as important for adoption process. The decision model linked the perspectives to policy targets and various energy policy instruments. These perspectives are: economic, social, political, environmental and technical. The research implemented the hierarchical decision model (HDM) to construct a generalized policy assessment framework. Data for wind energy adoption in the Pacific Northwest region were collected as a case study and application for the model. Experts\u27 qualitative judgments were collected and quantified using the pair-wise comparison method and the final rankings and effectiveness of policy alternatives with respect to the mission were identified. Results of this research identified economic feasibility improvement of renewable energy projects as the most influential perspective and that renewable portfolio standards and tax credits are the two most effective criteria to accomplish that. The research also applied sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis to identify the effect of regional perspectives future priority changes on determining the most effective policy for this perspective. Results showed that renewable portfolio standards and tax credits were found to be the two most effective policies among the alternatives assessed. The research model and outcome can serve as policy check tool in policy making for renewable energy development in any region. Based on the overall research findings, policymakers can apply specific policy instruments to support adoption efforts for any given scenario and regional emphasis

A nanotechnology strategic key research areas foresight model for improved innovation and technology transfer

Abstracts in English, Afrikaans and ZuluNanotechnology revolutionised industrialisation and economic development and is predicted to drive the next Schumpeterian wave of economic growth. Most countries are strategically positioning themselves to benefit from nanotechnology, being a general-purpose technology. Hence, to ensure prudent use of limited resources, countries must select and focus on key strategic nanotechnology research areas that have the potential to generate competitiveness and return on investment. However, no model currently exists on critical success factors for nanotechnology innovation management. Also, there is a lack of effective nanotechnology-specific foresight models. Furthermore, although nanotechnology foresight relates to the Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) analysis, the use of MCDM methods in a foresight context has not been thoroughly explored yet. This research developed the Nanotechnology Innovation Diamond, a model for successful nanoscience research and development. The model was validated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) from a survey of 167 nanotechnology experts from South Africa. The results indicated that, at a 95% confidence level, the model satisfied the minimum CFA model fit requirements. The research further developed a nanotechnology-specific foresight model that integrates the Nanotechnology Innovation Diamond, technology mining, scientometrics, and the Analytical Hierarchical Process Multi-criteria Decision Making (AHP-MCDM) model. The AHP-MCDM foresight model was empirically tested in South Africa. The results showed that South Africa’s nanotechnology publications grew exponentially from 68 papers in 2000 to 1 672 in 2019, representing an increase of 2 459%. Compared to the other BRICS countries, namely, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, South Africa has the lowest nanotechnology productivity, scoring an activity index of 0.68. Universities are the most prominent publishers on nanotechnology, while the private sector has produced few publications. Only 48 patents were identified compared to 11 265 publications, and a meagre 3.5% of papers were found to report on nano-enabled products. This lack of reporting on nano-enabled products can negatively impact the commercialisation of nanotechnology. The top collaborating countries, top researchers, top institutions, and nanotechnology economic hubs are reported in this study. The key strategic research areas identified for South Africa include nanomaterials, nano-photoluminescence and optics, nanomedicine, nanocatalysis, nanoelectronics, nanobiotechnology, and energy. The results were benchmarked using an expert-survey foresight method, which gave 70% similar priority fields of research. The research contributes to the discourse on nanotechnology innovation management, technology-specific foresight methods, nanotechnology-specific foresight methods, and the utilisation of quantitative tools in foresight.Nanotegnologie het ’n omwenteling in industrialisering en ekonomiese ontwikkeling teweeggebring en daar word voorspel dat dit die volgende Schumpeterse golf van ekonomiese groei sal aandryf. Die meeste lande is besig om hulself strategies te posisioneer om uit nanotegnologie voordeel te trek, aangesien dit ’n meerdoelige tegnologie is. Om dus verstandige gebruik van beperkte hulpbronne te verseker, moet lande strategiese sleutelnavorsingsareas in nanotegnologie wat die potensiaal het om mededingendheid en opbrengs op belegging te genereer, kies en daarop fokus. Daar bestaan egter nie op die oomblik ’n model ten opsigte van kritiese suksesfaktore vir nanotegnologie-innovering-bestuur nie. Boonop is daar ’n tekort aan doeltreffende nanotegnologie-spesifieke toekomsbeplanningsmodelle. Hoewel toekomsbeplanning vir nanotegnologie verband hou met die Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM)-ontleding, is die gebruik van MCDM-metodes in ’n toekomsbeplanning-konteks nog nie behoorlik ondersoek nie. In hierdie navorsing is die Nanotechnology Innovation Diamond ontwikkel – ’n model vir suksesvolle nanowetenskap-navorsing en -ontwikkeling. Om die geldigheid van die model te bepaal, is bevestigende faktorontleding (CFA) van ’n opname onder 167 nanotegnologiekundiges van Suid-Afrika gebruik. Die resultate het aangetoon dat die model aan die minimum CFA-modelgeskiktheidvereistes voldoen het, met ’n 95%-vertroubaarheidsvlak. Verder het die navorsing ’n nanotegnologie-spesifieke toekomsbeplanningsmodel ontwikkel wat die Nanotechnology Innovation Diamond, tegnologie-ontginning, scientometrie, en die Analytical Hierarchical Process Multi-criteria Decision Making (AHP-MCDM) -model integreer. Die AHP-MCDM-toekomsbeplanningsmodel is empiries getoets in Suid-Afrika. Die resultate het getoon dat Suid-Afrika se nanotegnologie-publikasies eksponensieel gegroei het van 68 artikels in 2000 tot 1 672 in 2019 – dit verteenwoordig ’n toename van 2 459%. In vergelyking met die ander BRICS-lande, naamlik Brasilië, Rusland, Indië, en China, het Suid-Afrika die laagste syfer ten opsigte van nanotegnologie- produktiwiteit, met ’n bedrywigheidsindekssyfer van 0.68. Universiteite is die mees prominente uitgewers wanneer dit by nanotegnologie kom, terwyl die private sektor ’n paar publikasies opgelewer het. Slegs 48 patente is geïdentifiseer in vergelyking met 11 265 publikasies, en daar is bevind dat ’n skamele 3.5% van die artikels oor nano-geaktiveerde produkte verslag doen. Hierdie gebrek aan verslagdoening oor nano-geaktiveerde produkte kan ’n negatiewe uitwerking op die kommersialisering van nanotegnologie hê. In hierdie studie word verslag gedoen oor die lande, navorsers, instansies, en nanotegnologie- ekonomiese middelpunte wat die voortou neem. Die strategiese sleutelnavorsingsareas wat vir Suid-Afrika geïdentifiseer is, sluit nanomateriale, nano-fotoluminessensie en optika, nanomedisyne, nanokatalise, nano-elektronika, nanobiotegnologie, en energie in. Die resultate is genormeer met behulp van ’n kundige-opname-toekomsbeplanningsmetode, wat 70% soortgelyke-prioriteit-navorsingsvelde gelewer het. Die navorsing dra by tot die gesprekvoering oor nanotegnologie-innoveringsbestuur, tegnologie-spesifieke toekoms beplannings metodes, nanotegnologiespesifieke toekomsbeplanningsmetodes, en die benutting van kwantitatiewe middele in toekomsbeplanning.Igatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu nokubekezelelana liguqule ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni nokuthuthukiswa komnotho futhi kubikezelwa ukuthi liza ngomkhulu umfutho olandelayo le-Schumpeterian lokukhula komnotho. Amazwe amaningi azibeka esimweni esifanele ukuze ahlomule egatsheni lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana kuhlobene nokuhlaziywa kocwaningo Lokwenziwa Kwezinqumo Ngemibandela eminingi (LKNE), ukusetshenziswa kwezindlela ze-LKNE esimweni elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana, okuwubuchwepheshe benjongo evamile. Ngakho-ke, ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukusetshenziswa okuhlakaniphile kwezinsizakusebenza ezilinganiselwe, amazwe kufanele akhethe futhi agxile ezindaweni ezibalulekile zocwaningo lwegatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana ezinamandla okukhiqiza ukuncintisana kanye nembuyiselo ekutshalweni kwezimali. Kodwa-ke, ayikho imodeli ekhona njengamanje ezicini zempumelelo ezibalulekile zokuphathwa kokusungulwa kwegatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana. Futhi, kukhona ukuntuleka kwamamodeli okubona into engakenzeki aqondene negatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana. Ngaphezu kwalokho, nakuba ukubona into ingakenzeki kwegatsha lobuchwepheshe sokubona izinto zingakenzeki akukahlolisiswa ngokugcwele okwamanje. Lolu cwaningo lwenze igatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana kuhlobene Nokwenziwa Kwezinqumo Ngemibandela Eminingi, imodeli yocwaningo nokuthuthukiswa kwesifundo sezinto, izenzakalo esikalini senanomitha. Imodeli yaqinisekiswa kusetshenziswa ukuhlaziya isici sokuqinisekisa (UIS) ocwaningweni lochwepheshe abayi-167 beGatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana baseNingizimu Afrika. Imiphumela ibonise ukuthi, ngezinga lokuzethemba elingama-95%, imodeli yanelisa ubuncane bezidingo zemodeli ye-UIS. Ucwaningo luqhubekile nokuthuthukisa imodeli yokubona okungakenzeki okuqondene neGatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana ehlanganisa iGatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana Kokuqamba kabusha kweDayimane , izimayini zobuchwepheshe, isayensi yamametrikhi, kanye nemodeli ye-Analytical Hierarchical Process Multi-criteria Decision Making (AHP-MCDM). Imodeli ye-AHP-MCDM yokubona okungakenzeki kwahlolwa ngokunamandla eNingizimu Afrika. Imiphumela ikhombise ukuthi izincwadi zaseNingizimu Afrika zeGatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana - likhule kakhulu lisuka kumaphepha angama-68 ngonyaka wezi-2000 zaya kuyi-1 672 ngowezi-2019, nokumele ukukhula nge-2 459%. Uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amazwe e-BRICS, okuyiBrazil, Russia, India, neChina, iNingizimu Afrika inokukhiqiza okuphansi kweGatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana , ithole inkomba yemisebenzi engu-0.68. Amanyuvesi abashicileli abagqama kakhulu ku-egatsheni lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana, kuyilapho imboni ezimele ikhiqize izincwadi ezimbalwa. Amalungelo obunikazi angama-48 kuphela ahlonziwe uma kuqhathaniswa nokushicilelwe okuyi-11 265, futhi kwatholakala ama-3.5% omncane wamaphepha ukubika ngemikhiqizo enikwe amandla yinano. Lokhu kuntuleka kokubika ngemikhiqizo enikwe amandla enano kungaba nomthelela omubi ekuhwebeni kwegatsha lobuchwpheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana. Amazwe aphezulu asebenzisanayo, abacwaningi abaphezulu, izikhungo eziphezulu, nezizinda zezomnotho zegatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana kuyabikwa kulolu cwaningo. Izindawo zocwaningo zamasu ezibalulekile ezihlonzwe eNingizimu Afrika zihlanganisa izinto zenano, inano yephotholuminensi kanye ne-opthikhi, igatsha lemithi yenano, ikhathalysisi yenano, i-elektronikhi yenano, ubuchwepheshe bebhayiloji, namandla. Imiphumela yalinganiswa kusetshenziswa indlela yokuhlola kungakenzeki into yochwepheshe, enikeze ama-70% izinkambu zocwaningo ezibalulekile ezifanayo. Ucwaningo lunikela enkulumweni emayelana nokuphathwa kokusungulwa kwegatsha lobochwepheshe benano, izindlela zokubona izinto kusengaphambili eziqondene nobuchwepheshe obuthile, izindlela zokubikezela kusengaphambili eziqondene netheknoloji yenano, kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamathuluzi obuningi ekuboneni kusengaphambili.Business ManagementD. B. L