Análise do comportamento de gerentes em tomada de decisão organizacional: um experimento sobre a geração de alternativas

A qualidade das decisões estratégicas que são tomadas por uma organização define o seu desempenho e a satisfação dos seus stakeholders. Essa qualidade, por sua vez, depende do processo decisório e da competência daqueles que participam dele. Gerar alternativas criativas e viáveis é uma etapa fundamental do processo de tomada de decisão, responsável em grande parte pela qualidade almejada. Entretanto, as pesquisas sobre geração de alternativas têm indicado, consistentemente, que as pessoas não são eficientes nessa atividade. Este artigo trata de um estudo desenvolvido para se conhecer o desempenho do administrador brasileiro em gerar alternativas factíveis e criativas. A pesquisa foi um experimento com 174 alunos de cursos MBA, de 4 escolas da Grande São Paulo. O resultado obtido pode ser visto como uma confluência da pesquisa experimental, oriunda da psicologia cognitiva da decisão, com a visão da ciência da decisão organizacional. Essa linha de pesquisa se mostrou praticamente inexplorada nos estudos em administração desenvolvidos no Brasil

Decision-making between rationality and intuition: effectiveness conditions and solutions to enhance decision efficacy

Decision-making, one process, many theories: a multidisciplinary literature review. How individual and environmental factors interact and influence the effectiveness of strategic decisions through rational and intuitive dynamics. Mentoring and the promotion of self-confidence in decision-making: the role of cognitive awareness and expertise building through the lenses of rationality and intuition

Cue-centric model of the fireground incident commander's decision making process

Pattern recognition based models propose that in highly routine situations, the FireGround Incident Commanders (FGC) make decisions using experiences of the past similar incidents (Klein et al, 1986), which are stored in memory as schemas (Klein et al, 2006). Due to the nonsystematic development of schemas that guide pattern recognition (Beach & Mitchell, 1978) and the biases attached with pattern recognition (Tversky & Kahnmen, 1974), this approach is least favorable candidate for decision making in nonroutine situations. The nonroutine situations are characterized by: failure to clearly recognize relevant past episodes (Bousfield & Sedgewick, 1944), deliberate avoiding of recalling the past episodes (Jacoby et al, 1989) or time constraint and ambiguity of available information for decision making. This research proposes that in nonroutine situations, the FGCs rely on thorough search and assessment of diagnostic, relevant, and important cues. Therefore, one aim of this research is to propose a model of the FGCs' decision making process for nonroutine situations; the model will base on the use of cues rather than the pattern recognition approach. This research also aims to provide a robust and coherent definition of the FGC’s decision making process and will subsequently specify the structure and the underlying phases of it. The context of the research is the decisions made by the FGCs during large fires, involving at least 5 fire appliances. 20 FGCs from 2 of the UK’s large firebrigades with at least 7 years of experience in command position participated in a fieldwork carried over a period of 1 year. For the data collection, multiple case studies in the form of critical incident reports are obtained from the participants. Each critical incident is explored further through semi-structured interviews. For the data analysis, theoretical or deductive thematic approach and process reconstruction method (Nutt, 1983) are used. Results indicate that the current definition of the term ‘FGC’s decision making process’ is incomplete. The definition of the FGC’s decision making process proposed in this research now, recognizes that each process of selection and evaluation of a course of action to solve a problem (Klein et al, 1986) is preceded by a process of identification of a problem. This definition commensurate with the widely acceptable definition of decision making process proposed in Nutt (1984). This research also found that the FGCs make decisions in 2 cyclic and distinguishable phases, which are the ‘problem recognition’ phase, and the ‘solution generation’ phase. Finally, a cue-centric model of the FGC's decision making process is proposed. The model showed that in nonroutine situations, when pattern recognition fails to guide the decision making process, the FGCs develop a mental model of a situation through thorough search and assessment of the valuable cues based on their diagnosticity, importance and relevance. The mental model assists in identifying problems and selecting a course of action to solve that problem. This research fulfills the need of developing descriptive models for clarifying issues arising in the areas of training, selection, and in developing decision support systems (Klein et al, 1986)

Expert knowledge elicitation in the firefighting domain and the implications for training novices

Background/Purpose: Experienced fireground commanders are often required to make important decisions in time-pressured and dynamic environments that are characterized by a wide range of task constraints. The nature of these environments is such that firefighters are sometimes faced with novel situations that seek to challenge their expertise and therefore necessitate making knowledge-based as opposed to rule-based decisions. The purpose of this study is to elicit the tacitly held knowledge which largely underpinned expert competence when managing non-routine fire incidents. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study utilized a formal knowledge elicitation tool known as the critical decision method (CDM). The CDM method was preferred to other cognitive task analysis (CTA) methods as it is specifically designed to probe the cognitive strategies of domain experts with reference to a single incident that was both challenging and memorable. Thirty experienced firefighters and one staff development officer were interviewed in-depth across different fire stations in the UK and Nigeria (UK=15, Nigeria=16). The interview transcripts were analyzed using the emergent themes analysis (ETA) approach. Findings: Findings from the study revealed 42 salient cues that were sought by experts at each decision point. A critical cue inventory (CCI) was developed and cues were categorized into five distinct types based on the type of information each cue generated to an incident commander. The study also developed a decision making model — information filtering and intuitive decision making model (IFID), which describes how the experienced firefighters were able to make difficult fireground decisions amidst multiple informational sources without having to deliberate on their courses of action. The study also compiled and indexed the elicited tacit knowledge into a competence assessment framework (CAF) with which the competence of future incident commanders could potentially be assessed. Practical Implications: Through the knowledge elicitation process, training needs were identified, and the practical implications for transferring the elicited experts’ knowledge to novice firefighters were also discussed. The four component instructional design model aided the conceptualization of the CDM outputs for training purposes. Originality/Value: Although it is widely believed that experts perform exceptionally well in their domains of practice, the difficulty still lies in finding how best to unmask expert (tacit) knowledge, particularly when it is intended for training purposes. Since tacit knowledge operates in the unconscious realm, articulating and describing it has been shown to be challenging even for experts themselves. This study is therefore timely since its outputs can facilitate the development of training curricula for novices, who then will not have to wait for real fires to occur before learning new skills. This statement holds true particularly in this era where the rate of real fires and therefore the opportunity to gain experience has been on a decline. The current study also presents and discusses insights based on the cultural differences that were observed between the UK and the Nigerian fire service

What should be the role of social value in organ allocation decisions?

With this thesis, I argue that when selecting which patient should be the recipient of an organ for transplant, a social value judgment about the patient should be included alongside judgments about the patient’s level of urgency and prognosis. The reason for this suggestion is that better use can be made of scarce organ resources, in terms of the overall welfare created from each transplant, if the wider effects of the transplant for society are taken into account rather than simply how likely it is that the patient will benefit. I argue that the survival of a patient that makes valuable contributions to society will create more overall welfare than the survival of a patient who makes less valuable contributions. Other commentators have made similar suggestions, however, their discussion of the issue is relatively brief and as such, their arguments are not comprehensive enough to stand up to criticism. With this thesis, I go beyond their limited discussion and provide an original contribution to knowledge by way of providing a much more detailed analysis of the ethical issues surrounding the inclusion of social value considerations in organ allocation decisions than has been given before, thereby providing a stronger and more convincing case for their inclusion. In order to support this, I also provide a viable framework for how these social value considerations can be acceptably incorporated into the organ allocation decision from both an ethical and practical perspective, something that is sorely missed from the existing literature. Whilst the inclusion of social value judgments into resource allocation decisions has negative associations, I have presented a possible system whereby they can be included alongside the current organ allocation system in such a way that other important values, such as equality and fairness, can be maintained