Managing technological transitions: prospects, places, publics and policy

Transition management (TM) approaches have generated considerable interest in academic and policy circles in recent years (Kemp and Loorbach, 2005; Rotmans and Kemp, 2003). In terms of a loose definition, a ‘transition can be defined as a gradual, continuous process of structural change within a society or culture’ (Rotmans et al, 2001, p.2). The development of TM, much of which has occurred within the context of the Netherlands, may be seen as a response to the complexities, uncertainties and problems which confront many western societies, in organising ‘sustainably’ various aspects of energy, agricultural, water, transport and health systems of production and consumption. Problems such as pollution, congestion, the vulnerability of energy or water supplies and so on are seen as systemic and entwined or embedded in a series of social, economic, political, cultural and technological relationships. The systemic nature of many of these problems highlights the involvement - in the functioning of a particular system and any subsequent transition - of multiple actors or ‘stakeholders’ across different local, national and international scales of activity. With this in mind, such problems become difficult to ‘solve’ and ‘solutions’ are seen to require systemic innovation rather than individual or episodic responses. The point being that ‘these problems are system inherent and… the solution lies in creating different systems or transforming existing ones’ (Kemp and Loorbach, 2005, p.125). In this paper we critically engage with and build upon transitions approaches to address their ‘applicability’ in the context of the UK. In doing this the paper addresses the prospective potential of transitions approaches, but also their relative neglect of places and publics. Through developing an argument which addresses the strengths and ‘gaps’ of transitions approaches we also analyse the resonances and dissonances between three themes – cities and regions, public participation and national hydrogen strategy – in the transitions literature and the UK policy context

Building and interconnecting hydrogen networks : insights from the electricity and gas experience in Europe

This paper aims to investigate the transition to a new energy system based on hydrogen in the European liberalized framework. After analyzing the literature on the hydrogen infrastructure needs in Europe, we estimate the size and scope of the transition challenge. We take the theoretical framework of network economics to analyze early hydrogen infrastructure needs. Therefore, several concepts are applied to hydrogen economics such as demand club effects, scale economies on large infrastructures, scope economies, and positive socio-economical externalities. On the examples of the electricity and natural gas industry formation in Europe, we argue for public intervention in order to create conditions to reach more rapidly the critical size of the network and to prompt network externalities allowing for the market diffusion of and, thus, an effective transition to the new energy system.Network economics ; infrastructure ; hydrogen

Prospects for the hydrogen transition based on the network economic approach : Insights from the electricity and gas experience in Europe

This paper aims to investigate the transition to a new energy system based on hydrogen in the European liberalized framework. After analyzing the literature on the hydrogen infrastructure needs in Europe, we estimate the size and scope of the transition challenge.We take the theoretical framework of network economics to analyze early hydrogen infrastructure needs. Therefore, several concepts are applied to hydrogen economics such as demand club effects, scale economies on large infrastructures, scope economies, and positive socio-economical externalities. On the examples of the electric and natural gas industry formation in Europe, we argue for public intervention in order to create conditions to reach more rapidly the critical size of the network and to prompt network externalities allowing for the market diffusion of and, thus, an effective transition to the new energy system.Economics of regulation ; network economics ; technological change ; energy economics ; hydrogen ; electricity ; natural gas

Prospects for Hydrogen in the Future Energy System

Hydrogen is a high quality energy carrier that could be produced at global scale, via thermochemical processing of hydrocarbons, such as natural gas, coal or biomass, or water electrolysis using any source of electricity including renewables, such as wind or solar, or nuclear power. Hydrogen is receiving renewed attention driven by growing concerns about climate change, air quality and integration of variable renewable energy into the energy system. Recent energy/economic studies suggest that hydrogen and fuel cells could be important technologies for simultaneously addressing these challenges in a future renewable-intensive, low carbon energy system. In this paper, we review the technical and economic status of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, progress toward commercialization, and the role of policy. We discuss timing, barriers, costs and benefits of a hydrogen transition, focusing on vehicle and energy storage applications. Finally, we suggest guidelines for future policies guiding a hydrogen transition

The prospects of blue and green hydrogen in Norway for energy export

Master's thesis in Energy, Environment and SocietyAs the threat of climate change impacts looms, with global temperatures rising to 1.5oC as early as 2030, the need for rapid low-carbon energy transition is more urgent than ever. As a global leader in climate change negotiations, the EU has committed to become carbon neutral by 2050 and hydrogen is set to play a critical role in decarbonising sectors which are difficult to electrify such as freight transport, energy-intensive industries required high-grade heat and power generation sectors. This offers an opportunity for Norway to mitigate the risk of declining demand and supply of its fossil-fuel based energy exports. This thesis provides an overview of the key drivers and barriers that could affect the prospects of blue and green hydrogen export in Norway. Given that transitions, in general, do not follow a linear-process, the thesis uses exploratory scenarios as a framework to enhance the understanding of how the interplay of these drivers could affect the trajectories of the pathways of blue and green hydrogen developments in Norway. The findings and analysis show that Norway is well-positioned in terms of natural resources availability, existing compatible infrastructure and technological expertise for the development of both types of hydrogen and has a great potential for becoming a market leader in the export of hydrogen. As its natural gas reserves deplete, the role of green hydrogen in a low-carbon energy system is likely grow more significantly. Therefore, it is critical for policymakers to consider the eventual phase-out of blue hydrogen and scaling up of green hydrogen in its strategy as early as possible. Overall, blue hydrogen should be viewed as a short-term solution to enable a rapid hydrogen transition, but green hydrogen would offer better prospects for a more sustainable economy for Norway.submittedVersio

Cutting carbon, not the economy

A drastic change in the way we produce and consume energy is necessary to contain the risk of global environmental catastrophe. For its part, the EU has set agreed to a greenhouse gas reduction target of 80-95 percent by 2050, compared to 1990. However, with the current fuel mix, even the most ambitious improvements on incumbent technologies are unlikely to be sufficient for reaching the reduction targets. Meeting the targets requires low-carbon transition. However, the process of transition will likely be littered with market failures. Hundreds of more-or-less proven low-carbon technologies are competing for market share in the low-carbon system. In order to bring about the transition to a low-carbon energy and transport system at the lowest cost, policymakers should rely as much as possible on private action to choose, develop, and deploy low-carbon technologies. For those market failures that might only be overcome with technology-specific measures, governments should set up a transparent and predictable mechanism for selecting technologies. This Policy Contribution largely draws on research conducted for The great transformation: decarbonising Europeâ??s energy and transport systems. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH). The views expressed in this publication are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FCH.

Technology roadmaps for transition management: The case of hydrogen energy

AbstractTechnology roadmaps are increasingly used by governments to inform and promote technological transitions, such as a transition to a hydrogen energy system. This paper develops a framework for understanding how current roadmapping practice relates to emerging theories of the governance of systems innovation. In applying this framework to a case study of hydrogen roadmaps, the paper finds that roadmapping for transitions needs to place greater emphasis on ensuring good quality and transparent analytic and participatory procedures. To be most useful, roadmaps should be embedded within institutional structures that enable the incorporation of learning and re-evaluation, but in practice most transition roadmaps are one-off exercises

Scenarios and futures in the governance of sustainable innovation pathways: the case of hydrogen energy

Global climate change and other sustainability challenges demand a transition to more sustainable systems. The long-term and complex nature of such transitions invites longterm planning, but it also suggests that the future is unpredictable and contested. Moreover, the act of envisioning, forecasting and planning for possible futures itself influences transitions, because visions and expectations form part of the institutional environment that shapes the behaviour of policymakers, innovators and others. Futures activities are thus part of the process of transition. A key source of technological expectations and visions are published technology futures documents, and the processes that are used to develop them. How are such published futures created, and why are they produced? How can we assess the quality of published futures? What role do computer models play in shaping such futures, and how can computer models be used to open up futures to alternative framings and perspectives? How can published futures be improved in order to facilitate the governance of transitions to sustainability? These are the questions that motivate this PhD, and which are the subject of the portfolio of publications and this commentary. These questions are addressed through a case: hydrogen energy technologies. A key theme that runs throughout the publications is that the future is a contested space in which actors bid for their preferred futures, express their interests and their perspectives, and attempt to influence the processes of both appraisal of and commitment to particular futures. The thesis presents a variety of ways in which participatory scenario development can be combined with other methods to ‘open up’ futures and enable consideration and representation of diverse perspectives, deep uncertainty, and plural pathways

Assessing the feasibility of archetypal transition pathways towards carbon neutrality – A comparative analysis of European industries

Analyses of the future for manufacturing and heavy industries in a climate constrained world many times focus on technological innovations in the early stages of the value chain, assuming few significant changes are plausible, wanted, or necessary throughout the rest of the value chain. Complex questions about competing interests, different ways of organising resource management, production, consumption, and integrating value chains are thus closed down to ones about efficiencies, pay-back times, and primary processing technologies. In this analysis, we move beyond this to identify archetypal pathways that span across value chains in four emissions intensive industries: plastics, steel, pulp and paper, and meat and dairy. The pathways as presented in the present paper were inductively identified in a multi-stage process throughout a four-year European research project. The identified archetypal pathways are i) production and end-use optimisation, ii) electrification with CCU, iii) CCS, iv) circular material flows, and v) diversification of bio-feedstock use. The pathways are at different stages of maturity and furthermore their maturity vary across sectors. The pathways show that decarbonisation is likely to force value chains to cross over traditional boundaries. This implies that an integrated industrial and climate policy must handle both sectoral specificities and commonalities for decarbonised industrial development.publishedVersio