Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Earthquake Recovery

The recovery process after a major disaster or disruption, is impacted by the inequality of risk prior to and post event. In the past decades there has been few efforts to model the recovery process and the focus is mainly on staged models (i.e. emergency, restoration, and reconstruction). The overarching research question asks how a non-stage-like model could apply to the recovery process. This study poses three broad questions: 1) what are the indicators suitable for monitoring the recovery process; 2) what are the driving factors of differential recovery trends; and 3) what are the predicted development trajectories for communities if there was no disruption? To address the research questions, a new model is proposed for tracking the recovery process as the “Tempo-variant Model of Disaster Recovery” (TMDR), which is implemented for six case studies of recoveries post-earthquakes, in a continuous trend through time (case studies from: Chile, New Zealand, India, Iran, China, and Italy). The recovery process is monitored through a set of proposed indicators representing the changes in six main categories of housing, socio-economic, agriculture, infrastructural, institutional, and development. Satellite imagery is used as a congruent data source to monitor urban land surface change that is implemented with a new model and conditional algebra for change detection. A new method is then developed by combining the satellite imagery data with social indicators, which provides quantitative/relative measure of recovery trend (spatially and temporally) where ground assessments are impractical. The results of implementing the new TMDR model in this cross-cultural comparative study, further highlights the drivers of recovery process across time and nations. The difference between post-event and pre-event trends (i.e. recovery progress) shows significant association with instantaneous impact of the event on community development dynamics in all cases. The spatio-temporal analysis shows majority of the study area in Chile is recovered, but there are regions in the other cases that are still recovering. The comparative view on TMDR results indicates that impact of event is more significant for recovery progress in the initial years post-event, while additional indicators of access to basic infrastructure is more predictive in the long-term. Therefore, this new model provides a case-dependent baseline and an operational tool for monitoring the recovery process

Evaluating Urban Expansion Using Integrated Remote Sensing and GIS technique: A Case Study in Greater Chengdu, China

The overall goal of this thesis is to better understand changes in the spatial pattern of urban growth and its impact on landscape configuration by conducting a case study in Greater Chengdu, an inland megacity in China. The objectives are as follows: 1) Quantifying changes in the spatial pattern of the study area between 2003 and 2013; 2) Evaluating the degree of urban sprawl over that period; 3) Evaluating urban expansion dynamics; and 4) Examining and defining the types of urban growth. Satellite imagery was employed to distinguish and identify different land surface categories. Integrated remote sensing and GIS (Geographic Information System) technique was used to analyse both qualitative and quantitative perspectives regarding the objectives. The results indicate that the urban area of Greater Chengdu doubled from 525.5 km2 to 1191.85 km2 during 2003 to 2013. The geographic footprint demonstrates that the distribution of the built-up area was dispersed and continues to grow more dispersed. The dominant type of urban growth is outward expansion, by which the city grew within a 10 km to 25 km radius surrounding the city center. A substantial infill phenomenon exists between a 5 km and 10 km radius from the city center. The urban core boundary expanded outward by 5 km, while the fringe of suburban area expanded outward by 10 km during the time period, which both indicate a substantial outward expansion over the city. The significant contribution of this study could benefit to many aspects such as comparative studies between cities or continuous studies relevant to urban growth

Sub-catchment-based urban flood risk assessment with a multi-index fuzzy evaluation approach: a case study of Jinjiang district, China

Urban flood risk assessment requires attention in inland areas with intensifying climate change and an increasing probability of extreme precipitation. This study describes the developments and testing of a sub-catchment-based multi-index fuzzy evaluation approach that can provide adaptation guidance for municipal decision-makers at a local level. We first built a comprehensive flood risk assessment system considering three categories: hazard, urban system, and social environment. The proposed evaluation system includes hybrid uncertain information that involves random indicator sources and hesitant fuzzy judgments from experts. The storm weather management model combined with geographic information system tools was then applied to obtain random indicators. Subsequently, hesitant fuzzy linguistic sets and the Euclidean distance method were adopted to solve the problem of uncertainty and vagueness from subjective hesitant information. Therefore, the aggregation method provides a beneficial way to assess flood risk in a hybrid uncertain environment. In addition, the proposed approach was applied to the Jinjiang district in an inland city in the P. R. of China. This supports efforts to prioritize locally tailored policies and practical measures for higher-risk sub-catchments within large urban systems

Participatory Budgeting, Rural Public Services and Pilot Local Democracy Reform

30 years of rapid economic development in China has brought about prosperity as well as enlarged disparity, among which is the dramatic cleavage between rural and urban, a challenge that many developing countries have to face. In order to achieve a more balanced and integrated development between rural an urban, since late 2008, the Chengdu Municipality has allocated budget for village level public services projects, and entitle local villagers the right to decide, monitor evaluate the projects. Local villagers’ participation usually goes through 3 steps to choose their own village public services projects, that is, project proposals collecting, decision making, monitoring and evaluating. Village Council, Democratic Finance Management Group, and Democratic Monitoring Group composed of elected villagers are set up to make decision and supervise. This participatory budgeting program covers more than 2,700 villages, 6 million villagers; total annual budget is over 170 million USD, and still expanding and increasing. This local pilot participatory budgeting and local democracy reform in China is significant, in the sense that it is exploring improving rural public services, filling rural-urban gap by means of direct villager participation in village-level public service budgets decision making, monitoring and evaluation, brings transparency and revitalizes rural community solidarity, though there are still many setbacks and challenges to face. This pilot reform has enriched international participatory budgeting practices, the loan innovation linked short-term and medium-term development with participatory budgeting.Après 30 années marquées par un développement économique soutenu, la Chine est aujourd’hui un pays prospère mais où les disparités se sont par ailleurs accentuées, avec notamment un clivage saisissant entre monde rural et milieu urbain – problème auquel de nombreux pays en voie de développement se trouvent confrontés. Vers la fin de l’année 2008, afin de favoriser un développement plus équilibré et mieux intégré entre rural et urbain, la municipalité de Chengdu a entrepris de dédier un budget à des projets de services publics au niveau du village, ceci tout en permettant aux populations locales de gérer ces projets en termes de décisions, de suivi et d’évaluation. En règle générale, lorsqu’ils sélectionnent des projets de services publics pour leur propre village, les habitants locaux s’impliquent dans 3 étapes : collecte de propositions de projets, prise de décisions, suivi / évaluation. Composés de villageois élus, un Conseil du village, un Groupe de gestion démocratique des finances et un Groupe de contrôle démocratique sont mis en place pour la prise de décisions et la supervision. Ce programme de budgétisation participative couvre plus de 2700 villages, soit 6 millions de personnes, ceci avec un budget annuel total supérieur à 170 millions de $ US et qui ne cesse d’augmenter. Cette réforme pilote de la budgétisation participative et de la démocratie locale en Chine est très ambitieuse dans le sens où elle vise à améliorer les services publics ruraux et à combler le fossé entre milieux rural et urbain, avec une implication directe des villageois dans la prise de décisions et les activités de suivi et d’évaluation touchant aux budgets des services publics au niveau du village. La réforme a ainsi permis de gagner en transparence et de réactiver la solidarité au sein de la communauté rurale – encore qu’il reste beaucoup de contretemps et de difficultés à surmonter. Cette réforme pilote a enrichi les pratiques de budgétisation participative à l’échelle internationale, cependant que l’innovation des modalités de prêt a permis de concilier les développements à court terme et à moyen terme.30 años de rápido desarrollo en China han aportado prosperidad además de una gran disparidad, entre la que encontramos la enorme división entre las zonas rurales y urbanas, un reto que muchos países en desarrollo tienen que afrontar. Para lograr un desarrollo más equilibrado e integrado entre las zonas rurales y urbanas, desde finales de 2008, el término municipal de Chengdu ha asignado un presupuesto para proyectos de servicios públicos a nivel local y ha otorgado a los habitantes locales el derecho a decidir, controlar y evaluar los proyectos. La participación de los habitantes locales normalmente pasa por 3 fases para elegir los proyectos de servicios para su propio municipio, a saber, recogida de propuestas de proyectos, toma de decisiones, control y evaluación. Se ha constituido un Consejo Municipal, un Grupo Democrático de Gestión Financiera y un Grupo Democrático de Control, compuestos por ciudadanos elegidos, para tomar las decisiones y llevar a cabo la supervisión. Este programa de presupuesto participativo abarca más de 2.700 municipios, con 6 millones de habitantes; el presupuesto anual total es de 170 millones de dólares estadounidenses y sigue ampliándose e incrementándose. Esta reforma experimental local del presupuesto participativo y la democracia local en China es significativa, en el sentido de que explora la mejora de los servicios públicos rurales, reduce la brecha entre las zonas rurales y urbanas mediante la participación directa de los ciudadanos en la toma decisiones, el control y la evaluación de los presupuestos de servicios públicos a nivel municipal, aporta transparencia y revitaliza la solidaridad de las comunidades rurales, aunque todavía hay muchos contratiempos y retos por abordar. Esta reforma experimental ha enriquecido las prácticas internacionales de presupuestos participativos y la innovación en los préstamos ha vinculado el desarrollo a corto y medio plazo con los presupuestos participativos

Expansion of China's Cities and Agricultural Production

In China, there is a growing debate on the role of cultivated land conversion on food security. This paper examines the changes of the area of cultivated land and its potential agricultural productivity in China using satellite images. We find that between 1986 and 2000, China recorded a net increase of cultivated land (+1.9%), which almost offset the decrease in average potential productivity, or bioproductivity (-2.2%). Therefore, we conclude that conversion of cultivated land did not hurt China's national food security. We also show that more recent change in cultivated area also should have little adverse effect on food security.Land Economics/Use,

Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes and Their Influence on the Ecosystem in Chengdu City, China during the Period of 1992–2018

Due to urban expansion, economic development, and rapid population growth, land use/land cover (LULC) is changing in major cities around the globe. Quantitative analysis of LULC change is important for studying the corresponding impact on the ecosystem service value (ESV) that helps in decision-making and ecosystem conservation. Based on LULC data retrieved from remote-sensing interpretation, we computed the changes of ESV associated with the LULC dynamics using the benefits transfer method and geographic information system (GIS) technologies during the period of 1992–2018 following self-modified coefficients which were corrected by net primary productivity (NPP). This improved approach aimed to establish a regional value coefficients table for facilitating the reliable evaluation of ESV. The main objective of this research was to clarify the trend and spatial patterns of LULC changes and their influence on ecosystem service values and functions. Our results show a continuous reduction in total ESV from United States (US) $1476.25 million in 1992, to US$1410.17, $1335.10, and$1190.56 million in 2001, 2009, and 2018, respectively; such changes are attributed to a notable loss of farmland and forest land from 1992–2018. The elasticity of ESV in response to changes in LULC shows that 1% of land transition may have caused average changes of 0.28%, 0.34%, and 0.50% during the periods of 1992–2001, 2001–2009, and 2009–2018, respectively. This study provides important information useful for land resource management and for developing strategies to address the reduction of ESV

Sanxian: re-/un-thinking Chinese urban hierarchy with a medium-sized city

A new trend is emerging in China that categorises cities according to economic conditions and political statuses and that formulates a new urban hierarchical system. This urban hierarchy has historical echoes from several decades ago, when the country was divided into three “fronts” for geopolitical concerns. Ironically, the Chinese character of “tiers” and “fronts” is identical: “.:% ” (xian). By referring to Luzhou, a medium-sized city in Western China that bears the same label as “=.:% ” (“third tier” / “third front”) in different periods, we explore the change of urban political economy and governing techniques that are underlying these two different (yet at the same time identical) labels of a city. It turns out that the two labels of Luzhou indicate dissimilar logics of the state. The “third front” in the Maoist era, with centrally-dominated redistribution of resources, rendered the local state a passive political subject. In contrast, the recent rise of “tiers” discourse has a lot of purchases from the local state. Situating in inter-city competitions, they are empowered yet also impelled to be more active in promoting the urbanisation process and boosting “urban-ness” in partnership with capital. Here, between the territorial logic of the planned economy half century ago and the ongoing entrepreneurial local governance at present, we are invited to further reflect on how the development trajectory of an ordinary (and even overlooked) city could contribute to more global urban studies

An approach to urban system spatial planning in Chengdu Chongqing economic circle using geospatial big data

Evidence suggests city grouping is an important way to implement urbanization in China. However, the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC) is a typical dual-core structure, and the development level of each city is different. If we do not focus on the key directions for urban development, it will not be conducive to the new-type urbanization process. Therefore, we use spatial analysis techniques and geographic big data sets to construct an approach for urban system layout optimization from a global perspective. It mainly includes urban extended trend analysis based on night light, multi-modal traffic network analysis, and spatial economic density analysis using Open Street Map (OSM) and Point of Interest (POI) data. The research results show the following interesting findings. Firstly, the historical relationship of cities has a significant impact on city grouping, and efficient transportation connections and prosperous enterprise distribution are key conditions for urban grouping during the acceleration period of urbanization. Secondly, the development of urban grouping should break through administrative restrictions and achieve a moderate separation of administrative divisions and economic divisions. It is beneficial to the rapid growth of the city group and the improvement of the internal structure. Thirdly, the urban group of Southern Sichuan and Western Chongqing (SSWC) is the region with the most potential for growth in CCEC. The urban expansion index (UEI) of the Yibin-Luzhou area is 2.16, and the spatial economic density has increased by 130/km2 in the past decade. Providing flexible development authority and focus on the construction of the Yibin-Luzhou Urban Belt along the Yangtze River is an important way to integrate southern Sichuan. Moreover, we found the UEI has a good universality and it can be used for studying urban expansion trends and city relationships in rapidly developing regions, especially in metropolitan areas or urban agglomeration

Land Use and Land Cover Changes, and Environment and Risk Evaluation of Dujiangyan City (SW China) Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques

Understanding of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change, its transitions and Landscape risk (LR) evaluation in earthquake-affected areas is important for planning and urban sustainability. In the present study, we have considered Dujiangyan City and its Environs (DCEN), a seismic-prone area close to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (8.0 Mw) during 2007–2018. Five different multi-temporal data sets for the years 2007, 2008, 2010, 2015, and 2018 were considered for LULC mapping, followed by the maximum likelihood supervised classification technique. The individual LULC maps were further used in four time periods, i.e., 2007–2018, 2008–2018, 2010–2018, and 2015–2018, to evaluate the Land Use and Land Cover Transitions (LULCT) using combined remote sensing and GIS (Geographical Information System). Furthermore, multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) techniques were applied for LR mapping. The results of the LULC change data indicate that built-up, agricultural area, and forest cover are the prime categories that had been changed by the natural and anthropogenic activities. LULCT, along with multi-parameters, are suggested to avoid development in fault-existing areas that are seismically vulnerable for future landscape planning in a sustainable manner

Land Quality and Landscape Processes

This monograph contains a selection of scientific papers presented on the conference on Land Quality and Landscape Processes, hold in Keszthely, Hungary. It covers topics related to various aspects of land quality including : concepts of assessment; evaluation of biomass productivity ; bioindicators of land quality ; quality assessment of degraded land ; land use related data processingJRC.H.5-Land Resources Managemen