The reliability and validity of the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20): An International Review

This article reports on the current state of research about the most commonly used Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) guidelines for sexual offender risk assessment, the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20). After describing the general characteristics as well as frequently discussed strengths and weaknesses of this risk assessment approach, we give an international overview of the empirical results of the reliability and validity of the SVR-20. We conclude by describing briefly a convergent strategy for sexual offender risk assessment incorporating the SVR-20 and offer some future directions for international research on the SPJ approach

Evaluating Future Dangerousness and Need for Treatment: The Roles of Expert Testimony, Attributional Complexity, and Victim Type

In the current study, we explored the effect of risk-assessment testimony, attributional complexity, and victim type on participants’ perceptions of the dangerousness of a sexually violent person and his need for treatment. Participants read details of a hypothetical sexual assault of a female minor and of an adult. Expert testimony of his risk assessment consisted of clinical opinion versus structured-clinical judgment (SCJ) versus actuarial assessment. Participants perceived clinical-opinion and SCJ testimony as equally influential when forming judgments of future dangerousness. In the context of treatment, however, participants relied on actuarial testimony when judging potential for risk. In addition, attributional complexity (AC) moderated perceptions of sexual risk. Overall, results point to the need for continued refinement of assessment techniques when determining dangerousness and need for treatment

Evaluation of Current Emergency Department Fall Risk Assessment Tools: Is An Emergency Department Specific Fall Risk Assessment Tool Needed?

Problem: The ability to accurately and quickly identify patients at high risk for falls at the point of entry into the emergency department is the most important step in fall prevention and avoiding harm. Using an inpatient falls risk assessment tool is not adequately identifying patients at risk in the emergency department setting. Multiple factors contribute to falls and are not included in the risk assessment tool. The purpose of the study was to determine if the false risk assessment tool used in the Emergency Department (ED) adequately identifies a patient at risk for falling. Methods: This study used a snowball sampling method via Facebook with a link to Survey Monkey. Results: Of the 72 nurses who completed the survey, 34.7% of the nurses thought the survey was not appropriate for the evaluation of falls in the emergency department. Even though this may not seem like many, of those 72 nurses, 47.2% of them would prefer a simpler tool. When asked what population of patients the fall risk assessment tool did not appropriately screen for, responses included intoxicated, pediatric, infants, substance abuse, dizziness, vertigo, and unconscious patients. Implication for Practice: After reviewing the literature, it would be beneficial to develop an ED fall risk assessment tool that is specific to the patient population in the emergency department. A possible future study would be to implement an ED specific fall risk assessment tool and determine the effectiveness of the risk assessment tool on predicting patient falls. Key Words: Falls, Fall risk tool, Emergency room specific falls too

Developing a pressure ulcer risk factor minimum data set and risk assessment framework

AIM: To agree a draft pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set to underpin the development of a new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Framework.BACKGROUND: A recent systematic review identified the need for a pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set and development and validation of an evidenced-based pressure ulcer Risk Assessment Framework. This was undertaken through the Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research and incorporates five phases. This article reports phase two, a consensus study.DESIGN: Consensus study.METHOD: A modified nominal group technique based on the Research and Development/University of California at Los Angeles appropriateness method. This incorporated an expert group, review of the evidence and the views of a Patient and Public Involvement service user group. Data were collected December 2010-December 2011.FINDINGS: The risk factors and assessment items of the Minimum Data Set (including immobility, pressure ulcer and skin status, perfusion, diabetes, skin moisture, sensory perception and nutrition) were agreed. In addition, a draft Risk Assessment Framework incorporating all Minimum Data Set items was developed, comprising a two stage assessment process (screening and detailed full assessment) and decision pathways.CONCLUSION: The draft Risk Assessment Framework will undergo further design and pre-testing with clinical nurses to assess and improve its usability. It will then be evaluated in clinical practice to assess its validity and reliability. The Minimum Data Set could be used in future for large scale risk factor studies informing refinement of the Risk Assessment Framework

An integrated approach to risk assessments and condition surveys

This article discusses the integration of risk assessment and collection condition surveys, with reference to the uncertainties inherent in each of these two procedures. While condition surveys provide information on a collection's immediate condition, risk assessments add predictive aspects on the collection's potential for deterioration. Looking at probable causes of damage in a condition assessment can provide a link to the agents of deterioration examined in a risk assessment. Combining these two complementary assessments can provide useful insights and clarify priorities for the collection's management goals. Comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of two types of evaluation processes in visual perception, top-down and bottom-up, are discussed as they apply to the integration of the two assessments. Additionally, the article describes the use of an integrated assessment approach for a survey of the English Heritage collections. In conclusion, it was found that integrating condition surveys with risk assessments could increase the knowledge and understanding of current and future expectations of a collection

Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by implementing suitable risk treatment plans. However, an overarching overview of these methods, systematizing the characteristics of such methods, is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic literature review, and identify 7 integrated safety and security risk assessment methods. We analyze these methods based on 5 different criteria, and identify key characteristics and applications. A key outcome is the distinction between sequential and non-sequential integration of safety and security, related to the order in which safety and security risks are assessed. This study provides a basis for developing more effective integrated safety and security risk assessment methods in the future

Is there a role for thoracic aortic calcium to fine-tune cardiovascular risk prediction?

Screening asymptomatic subjects to streamline measures for the prevention of cardiovascular events remains a major challenge. The established primary prevention risk-scoring methods use equations derived from large prospective cohort studies, but further fine-tuning of cardiovascular risk assessment remains important as 25 % of individuals with low estimated risk may experience cardiac events. Independent studies provided evidence that extended risk assessment using coronary artery calcium quantification may improve risk stratification as it can lead to reclassification of persons at increased risk. Particularly in intermediate-risk subjects, coronary artery calcium scoring can help to correctly identify individuals at highest risk. Data on the extent of calcification of the ascending and descending thoracic aorta might be useful for additional cardiovascular risk stratification. Future analyses and studies will be required to answer the question of whether the implementation of such data may allow further fine-tuning of cardiovascular risk prediction in specific subpopulations—for instance in women or men with an increased risk of stroke and/or symptomatic peripheral vascular diseas

Method of planning construction projects, taking into account risk factors

This paper presents an original method of planning construction projects, taking into account the influence of potential risk factors. The method is called the Method of Construction Risk Assessment (MOCRA). According to this method, first the material-financial plan of a project (a construction project in the example provided) is analyzed. Then risk factors are identified, taking into account the project’s specificity. The end result of this stage is a list of risk factors. In the third stage the risk is reduced or minimized where possible. Finally, the specified risk factors are quantified, which is a difficult task. The effectiveness of the risk assessment depends on how thoroughly this task is carried out. Since point scale assessment of risk does not appeal to engineers, in MOCRA quantified risk is allocated in the material-financial plan. Thanks to this, one can prepare contingency plans, i.e. plans (action variants) to be implemented when particular risk factors occur. Having completed the project, one can use MOCRA to check the accuracy of the assessment (forecast) and select the best contingency action variant, whereby the method’s effectiveness in planning future projects is improved.risk, scheduling, construction project

Developing an Actuarial Risk Assessment to Inform the Decisions Made by Adult Protective Service Workers

In 2008, the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services Bureau of Elderly and Adult Services (BEAS) and the National Council on Crime and Delinquency (NCCD), with funding provided by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ), collaborated to construct an actuarial risk assessment to classify BEAS clients by their likelihood of elder maltreatment and/or self-neglect in the future. Studies in adult and juvenile corrections and child welfare have demonstrated that active service intervention with high risk clients can reduce criminal recidivism and the recurrence of child maltreatment (Wagner, Hull, & Luttrell, 1995; Eisenberg & Markley, 1987; Baird, Heinz, & Bemus, 1981). The purpose of this research was to examine a large set of individual and referral characteristics, determine their relationship to subsequent elder self-neglect and/or maltreatment, and develop an actuarial risk assessment for BEAS workers to complete at the end of an investigation to inform their case decisions.BEAS and NCCD pursued development of an actuarial risk assessment with the goal of reducing subsequent maltreatment of elderly and vulnerable adults who have been involved in an incident of self-neglect or maltreatment by another person (i.e., abuse, exploitation, or neglect). The actuarial risk assessment described in this report provides BEAS workers with a method to more accurately identify high risk clients and therefore more effectively target service interventions in an effort to protect their most vulnerable clients

At the Nexus of Neoliberalism, Mass Incarceration, and Scientific Racism: the Conflation of Blackness with Risk in the 21st century

This paper examines how the systems of power of neoliberalism, scientific racism, and mass incarceration intersect to construct and uphold the image of “black criminality” and “blackness as a risk” to society. Risk assessments used to determine prison sentencing exemplify this phenomenon. Histories of deliberate associations between blackness and criminality--through science, media, political rhetoric, and economic systems--create a field in which risk assessment is widely regarded as a useful and scientifically neutral tool in mass incarceration. Particular scientific, economic, and carceral circumstances culminating in the 21st century collude to elevate risk assessments into one aspect of a big data apparatus endowed with the capacity to predict and control future behaviors. The paper suggests future directions for scientific research to promote racial justice in the context of mass incarceration