Eliminating unobserved heterogeneity, using hierarchical models

학위논문(석사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 경영대학 경영학과, 2023. 2. 김준범.Freemium strategies contain both free and premium' options, offering some products or services for free as a sample to encourage paid option sales and expand their user base (Kumar, 2014; Liu et al., 2014; Gu et al., 2018). Distributing basic app downloads for free as a sample and selling paid options, usually through in-app purchases (IAP), has become a prevalent freemium strategy among mobile apps. This paper empirically analyzes the freemium mobile game users' reaction to the price of add-ons using mobile game transaction data provided by an app store. The observed add-on price in the data is constant over time. Since the add-on information is not included in the dataset (e.g., the characteristics of add-ons, or the quality level of add-ons), the categorical information is limited. There are insufficient game characteristics to capture all the game-level variations, and the add-on price is the only add-on-level variable. The freemium mobile game users can download and experience the games before they purchase add-on options and infer the quality of the games and add-ons. Therefore, it is crucial to include add-on level intercepts to separate the impact of game-level and add-on-level heterogeneity and correctly specify the impact of the add-on price. First, this research aims to determine mobile game users reactions to the add-on price of apps that use freemium strategies. Second, this study aims to find a categorical intercept that efficiently captures the time-invariant bias. Since the add-on price is time-consistent, including add-on level intercepts in the linear demand models is impossible. This study includes profit-maximizing firm assumptions to obtain a 2-stage model with add-on level intercepts. The categorical heterogeneity can be captured by including fixed or random intercepts. Third, reflecting the multi-level structure of this data is the objective of this paper. The price coefficient can be specified at the genre level. Since the data used in this paper is hierarchical, the Bayesian inference method was implied to improve the understanding of the multi-level structure of the models.프리미엄(Freemium) 전략은 서비스나 제품의 일부를 무료로 제공하고 유료 옵션을 구매하도록 장려하여 유저 기반을 확장시키는 판매전략으로, 무료와 프리미엄(premium)옵션을 모두 포함한다 (Kumar, 2014; Liu et al., 2014; Gu et al., 2018). 기본 앱을 무료로 다운로드 할 수 있도록 샘플로 제공하고 주로 인앱 결제(In-App Purchase)를 통해 유료 애드온(add-on)을 판매하는 전략은 모바일 앱 시장에서 널리 사용되고 있는 프리미엄 전략이다. 본 연구는 앱스토어에서 제공받은 모바일 게임 다운로드 및 구매 내역에 관한 데이터를 활용하여 애드온(add-on) 가격에 대한 프리미엄 모바일 게임 이용자들의 반응을 실증적으로 분석한다. 데이터에 포함된 애드온 가격은 관찰된 기간동안 일정하였다. 애드온의 특성이나 품질 등 애드온에 관한 정보가 데이터에 포함되어 있지 않으므로, 카테고리 별 정보는 제한 적이다. 또한, 게임 수준에서 발생하는 데이터의 변동을 모두 통제하기에는 포함되어 있는 게임 특성이 충분하지 않으며, 애드온 수준의 변수로는 애드온 가격이 유일하다. 따라서, 게임 수준과 애드온 수준에서 발생하는 이질성 (heterogeneity)의 영향을 담을 수 있는 변수를 포함하는 것이 중요하다. 첫째, 본 연구의 목적은 프리미엄 전략을 사요하는 무료 앱의 애드온 가격에 대한 모바일 게임 이용자들의 반응을 파악하는 것이다. 둘째, 본 연구의 목적은 시간 불변의 게임 별, 애드온 별 이질성을 효율적으로 포착할 수 있는 범주형 변수를 포함하는 것이다. 애드온의 가격은 관찰된 기간동안 일정하기 때문에 선형 수요 모형에서 애드온 수준의 고정 효과(fixed-effect)를 반영하는 것은 불가능하다. 본 연구에서는 기업이 수익을 극대화 한다는 공급 측면의 가정을 도입하여 애드온 수준의 고정 효과를 포함하는 2단계 모형을 사용하였다. 게임 또는 애드온 수준의 이질성은 고정 효과를 포함하여 관찰할 수 있다. 셋째, 이 데이터의 위계형 구조를 반영하는 것이 본 논문의 목적이다. 가격 계수는 장르 별로 측정될 수 있으며, 본 논문에서 사용한 데이터는 계층적이기 때문에 베이지안 추론 방법을 사용하여 계층적 구조를 추정하였다.I. Introduction 1 1.1. Study Background 1 1.2. Research Objectives 3 II. Literature review 5 2.1. Freemium Strategies in the Mobile Game Industry 5 2.2. Sampling Effect in Freemium Apps 8 III. Model 13 3.1. Demand Model 13 3.2. Supply-Side Assumptions 17 IV. Data and Variables 21 4.1. Mobile-Game App Store Data 21 4.2. Independent Variables 22 4.3. Summary Statistics of the Data 24 V. Empirical Analysis with Fixed Effects 28 5.1. Fixed effect Models with Promotion and Download Lag 28 5.2. Comparison of the Fixed Effect Models 33 5.3. Comparison of Models with Popular Games 37 VI. Bayesian Estimation 39 6.1. Bayesian Structure for Genre-Specific Price Coefficients 39 6.2. Sampling the Genre-Specific Price Coefficients 41 VII. Add-on Price Elasticities 42 VIII. Conclusion and Discussion 44 References 47 Abstract in Korean 52 Appendix A 54 Table Index Table 1. Summary of Relevant Freemium Studies 11 Table 2. Summary Statistics of the Data 26 Table 3. Comparison of Different Fixed Effect Models Non-Purchased 30 Table 4. Fixed Effect Model Comparison Non-Purchase and OnlyPurchased 35 Table 5. Model Comparison with FOC j-level Top Selling Apps 37 Table 6. Posterior of alpha 42 Table 7. Estimated Price Elasticities of the Models 44 Figure Index Figure 1. Scatter Plot of the Full Data, Including Non-Purchased Observations 27 Figure 2. Correlation Heat Map of the Download and Promotion Variables 33 Figure 3. Scatter Plot of Price and Sales Quantity of Add-ons by Genre 39 Figure 4. Bayesian Structure of Genre-Specific Price Coefficients in Stage 2. 40 Figure 5. Posterior Plot of the Inverse of Genre-specific Price Coefficients 41석

Motivations in the adoption and conversion of Music Freemium Services

Mestrado Bolonha em MarketingCom o recente avanço tecnológico, é possível ouvir música de novas maneiras. Isto resultou no aumento do valor de mercado da música e no surgimento de diversos serviços de streaming on-demand com o modelo de negócio freemium. Estes serviços têm sucesso, especialmente, quando os seus utilizadores convertem a sua subscrição de free para premium. O presente trabalho propõe-se a estudar quais as motivações que levam os consumidores a adotar uma plataforma de streaming de música, e quais as motivações e características de utilizador que levam à conversão para o serviço premium. Alguns estudos dedicaram-se a explicar o porquê desta conversão, mas pouco foi pesquisado no que toca às motivações dos consumidores para distinguir entre diferentes plataformas. Para aprofundar estas questões, este estudo analisa um conjunto de motivações e caraterísticas de utilizador como variáveis explicativas em conjunto, de forma original, não encontrada na literatura. Deste modo, os dados foram obtidos através de um inquérito online, com uma amostra de 231 utilizadores portugueses de plataformas de streaming. Os resultados principais apontam que a satisfação, valor percebido e ubiquidade são motivações estatisticamente significativas que influenciam positivamente a escolha de diferentes plataformas. Para além disto, as mesmas motivações, bem como a idade e ocupação (características de utilizador) mostraram-se impactantes no que diz respeito à conversão, sendo relevante do ponto de vista teórico e do ponto de vista prático. No entanto, os resultados destacam a influência negativa da satisfação e idade nesta compra. Isto significa que um utilizador altamente satisfeito não se converte e de modo semelhante, quanto mais velho for o utilizador, menos provável é que a compra ocorra. Não há evidência estatística que as motivações de descoberta, exclusividade, social e personalização e as restantes características de utilizador influenciem a conversão de utilizadores free em utilizadores premium.With the recent technological advancement, music is being experienced in new ways. This resulted in the rising value of the music market and the surge of diverse on-demand streaming services with the freemium business model. These services thrive especially when its users convert their subscription from free to premium. The current dissertation aims to study what motivations drive consumers to adopt different music streaming platforms and what motivations and user characteristics leads them to convert to the premium service. Several studies endeavoured on explaining this phenomenon, but little research was dedicated on what are the motivations for consumers to distinguish between different platforms. To enhance comprehension in this matter, this study analysis a group of motivations and user characteristics as explanatory variables together as a set, in a original way, not found on the literature. Thus, data was obtained via an online questionnaire, with a sample of 231 Portuguese users of streaming platforms. The main results suggest that satisfaction, perceived value and ubiquity are statistically significant motivations that positively influence choosing a different platform. Regarding subscribing to the premium service, the same motivations, as well as age and occupation (user characteristics) present influential results, which poses relevancy from a theorical point of view and managerial point of view. However, the findings highlight satisfaction and age as negative influences for this purchase. This means that highly satisfied free users don’t convert and similarly, the older the consumer, the less likely the conversion happens. No statistical evidence was found in discovery, exclusivity, social and personalization motivations alongside the remaining user characteristics for the conversion of free users into premium users.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Exploring social gambling: scoping, classification and evidence review

The aim of this report is to speculate on the level of concern we might have regarding consumer risk in relation to ‘social gambling.’ In doing so, this report is intended to help form the basis to initiate debate around a new and under-researched social issue; assist in setting a scientific research agenda; and, where appropriate, highlight concerns about any potential areas that need to be considered in terms of precautionary regulation. This report does not present a set of empirical research findings regarding ‘social gambling’ but rather gathers information to improve stakeholder understanding

Passive, Active, or Co-Active? The Link Between Synchronous User Participation and Willingness to Pay for Premium Options

Social media-enabled business models have transformed the content industry. To increase users’ willingness to pay (WTP), many of today’s content providers have changed from mere content provision towards offering social content experiences. Recent research has confirmed that users’ participation activities, e.g. commenting on content, increase the WTP for social content services’ premium options. So far, social content has been available predominantly on-demand, only allowing asynchronous user participation. Recently, social live content services emerged, which facilitate synchronous user participation and enable so-called co-active behavior. With this study, we conceptualize co-active behavior as the interplay between users while co-experiencing content together, and empirically show that co-active behavior has a stronger effect on WTP for premium options than the classic forms of passive and active behavior. Our work provides theoretical contributions on the WTP for social content as well as implications for the management of social content services

Startup dilemmas - Strategic problems of early-stage platforms on the internet

siirretty Doriast

Strategies for Achieving Profitability in the Music Streaming Service Business Model

Although the rapid growth of the music streaming industry has led to record levels of global music consumption, many leaders in the music streaming industry have not developed a financially sustainable business model for music streaming. This descriptive single case study focused on strategies that some global music streaming service leaders used to generate sustainable profits through their business models. Christensen\u27s theory of disruptive innovation served as the conceptual framework for this study. Semistructured interviews with the chief executive officer and 4 senior managers of a leading music streaming service in southeastern Asia were analyzed to identify themes. Secondary data collected for this research included practitioner reports, government reports, company documentation, and peer-reviewed journal articles. During data analysis, I used method triangulation to generate insights regarding the key themes identified in the literature review. Analysis of the data revealed strategies that global music streaming leaders used to generate profits: (a) optimization of the firm\u27s dynamic capabilities, (b) optimization of the subscription and freemium business models, and (c) a deliberate focus on the niche of local music. The findings of this study could be useful to music streaming service leaders who need to generate sustainable revenues and lack the strategies to do so on their own as well as to music streaming leaders who want their service to implement a disruptive innovation strategy. Additionally, the findings of this study might promote social change by generating awareness of proven strategies leading to sustainable profits for music streaming services and job security for artists who contribute to sustaining or increasing local economies cash flows and taxable incomes

고객의 무료 샘플 브랜드 선택에 영향을 미치는 변수 식별

학위논문(석사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 경영대학 경영학과, 2023. 2. 박성호.Numerous companies employ free sample promotion strategies to increase sales through risen customer experiences. Prior researches mainly focused on investigating the psychological mechanism of free sample promotion: risk aversion, experience effect, reciprocity. Nowadays, companies are introducing new types of free sample promotion strategies which allow customers autonomy when they are selecting sampled products. Therefore, identifying the variables that may affect customers choice of free sample would be new and meaningful to the field. Based on Korean leading cosmetic companys free sample promotion result data, current research builds a random utility model for individual customer. Then the research conducts multinomial logit to explore significant variables that may explain customers choice considering the brand level. For the results, customers preferred to choose the brand that the original price is higher due to price-quality inference. Also, customers presented inertia behavior rather than variety-seeking that past purchase amount and frequency for a specific brand played a significant role in selecting the free sample. In terms of heterogeneity, deal-prone customers showed higher sensitivity for price compared to those who were relatively insensitive to discount. Customers who have experienced various brands before participating the free sample promotion did not show preferences for a specific brand compared to customers who were loyal to a certain brand.기업은 무료 샘플 프로모션 전략을 통해 고객 경험을 제공함으로써 매출 증진을 꾀하곤 한다. 샘플 프로모션 전략과 관련한 선행 연구는 주로 위험 회피, 경험 효과, 호혜와 같은 고객의 참여 동인을 탐색하는데 주력했다. 최근, 기업은 고객의 자율성을 허용하는 방식의 새로운 무료 샘플 프로모션 전략을 시도한다. 따라서 이러한 프로모션에 참여하는 고객에게 영향을 미칠 수 있는 변수를 식별하는 연구가 의미 있겠다. 본 연구는 업계를 선도하는 한국 화장품 기업의 무료 샘플 프로모션 결과 데이터를 토대로 개별 고객의 효용을 설명할 수 있는 모형을 수립한다. 이후 다항 로짓 모형을 통해 브랜드 단계에서 고객의 선택에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 변수를 탐색한다. 연구 결과, 고객은 가격-품질 추론 성향에 의해 본 제품의 평균 정상가격이 높은 샘플 브랜드를 선호하는 것으로 나타났다. 또 과거 구매 금액이나 빈도가 높은 브랜드의 샘플을 선택할 확률이 높아 새로운 제품을 모험적으로 시도하기보다 관성적인 경향을 보였다. 개별 고객을 심도 깊게 이해하기 위한 이질성 분석에 따르면, 할인을 선호하는 성향이 강한 고객일수록 그렇지 않은 고객에 비해 본 제품 평균 정상가격에 더욱 민감했다. 또 샘플 선택 이전까지 다양한 브랜드를 사용해본 고객일수록 그렇지 않은 고객에 비해 특정 브랜드에 대한 선호 혹은 충성도가 떨어진다는 연구 결과를 확인할 수 있었다.1. Introduction 1 2. Literature Review 3 2.1. Traditional Free Sample Promotion 4 2.2. Mechanism of Free Sample Promotion 6 2.3. Digital Free Sample Promotion 7 3. Hypothesis Development 8 3.1. Price-Quality Inference 8 3.2. Monetary and Frequency 9 3.3. Deal-Proneness 10 3.4. Variety-Seeking 11 4. Data 11 4.1. Data Period 12 4.2. Initial Choice 13 4.3. Brand Categorization 14 4.4. Manual Selection 15 5. Model 17 6. Results 18 6.1. Main Results 18 6.2. Heterogeneity Results 21 7. Discussion 23 7.1. Summary 23 7.2. Implication 24 7.3. Limitation and Future Research 25 References 27 국문초록 34석