A multivariate approach for multi-step demand forecasting in assembly industries: Empirical evidence from an automotive supply chain

PreprintDemand forecasting works as a basis for operating, business and production planning decisions in many supply chain contexts. Yet, how to accurately predict the manufacturer's demand for components in the presence of end-customer demand uncertainty remains poorly understood. Assigning the proper order quantities of components to suppliers thus becomes a nontrivial task, with a significant impact on planning, capacity and inventory-related costs. This paper introduces a multivariate approach to predict manufacturer's demand for components throughout multiple forecast horizons using different leading indicators of demand shifts. We compare the autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX) with Machine Learning (ML) models. Using a real case study, we empirically evaluate the forecasting and supply chain performance of the multivariate regression models over the component's life-cycle. The experiments show that the proposed multivariate approach provides superior forecasting and inventory performance compared with traditional univariate benchmarks. Moreover, it reveals applicable throughout the component's life-cycle, not just to a single stage. Particularly, we found that demand signals at the beginning of the life-cycle are predicted better by the ARIMAX model, but it is outperformed by ML-based models in later life-cycle stages.INCT-EN - Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia para Excitotoxicidade e Neuroproteção(UIDB/00319/2020

THE ISSUE OF ECONOMIC CRISES AND CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN POLISH ECONOMIC THOUGHT IN THE INTERWAR PERIOD

This paper presents the considerations of Polish economists about the economic crises and the business cycle in the interwar period. According to E. Taylor, the causes of the then crisis of overproduction, accompanied by the phenomenon of price scissors, included varied elasticity of demand for agricultural products and industrial products, as well as monetary inflation and new technical inventions. E. Lipiński believed that the crisis was a result of overinvestment. State interventionism in the economies did not ease, but aggravated the crisis on a global scale. W.M. Zawadzki pointed to the nature of the crisis in Poland as being due to economic underdevelopment, low consumption, and a huge shortage of capital. J.W. Libicki took the view that an analysis of the crisis in agriculture should be combined with an analysis of profitability of agricultural production. A. Krzyżanowski linked production fluctuations with changes in investment demand, and the latter with the assessment of profitability, which depends on the interest rate. A. Heydel explained the business cycle with an incorrect interest rate policy. At the same time, he postulated that the state should refrain from interference in economic life. On the other hand, M. Kalecki pointed to the excessive optimism of businesses, causing an increase in investment, which leads to changes in global demand, as a cause of fluctuations. He advocated the inflationary financing of public works by the state

THE ISSUE OF ECONOMIC CRISES AND CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN POLISH ECONOMIC THOUGHT IN THE INTERWAR PERIOD

This paper presents the considerations of Polish economists about the economic crises and the business cycle in the interwar period. According to E. Taylor, the causes of the then crisis of overproduction, accompanied by the phenomenon of price scissors, included varied elasticity of demand for agricultural products and industrial products, as well as monetary inflation and new technical inventions. E. Lipiński believed that the crisis was a result of overinvestment. State interventionism in the economies did not ease, but aggravated the crisis on a global scale. W.M. Zawadzki pointed to the nature of the crisis in Poland as being due to economic underdevelopment, low consumption, and a huge shortage of capital. J.W. Libicki took the view that an analysis of the crisis in agriculture should be combined with an analysis of profitability of agricultural production. A. Krzyżanowski linked production fluctuations with changes in investment demand, and the latter with the assessment of profitability, which depends on the interest rate. A. Heydel explained the business cycle with an incorrect interest rate policy. At the same time, he postulated that the state should refrain from interference in economic life. On the other hand, M. Kalecki pointed to the excessive optimism of businesses, causing an increase in investment, which leads to changes in global demand, as a cause of fluctuations. He advocated the inflationary financing of public works by the state

Product Service Systems and Sustainability: Opportunities for Sustainable Solutions

Given that the concept of PSS is beginning to 'catch on' and gain attention, it is time for UNEP to contribute to, and influence the progress of PSS, to ensure that in concept and application it incorporates the idea of sustainability. In this context its potential is not generally understood by the public and private sectors or civil society. This booklet is intended to contribute to the dissemination and the discussion of the PSS concept as a promising approach to sustainability. The ultimate goal must be to achieve Sustainable Product-Service Systems. This UNEP publication is targeted at industry and government, academia and civil society to explain PSS – their potential benefits and limitations – in the sustainability context – using real company examples. To prepare this booklet, UNEP has drawn on the knowledge and experience of PSS experts to flesh out the concept of a sustainable PSS, to collect case studies of PSS in practice, to begin to document both its benefits and the hurdles which need to be overcome in its application, and to suggest ways forward in its development

Product service systems in the automotive industry: An alternative business model for a sustainable satisfaction system

Copyright @ 2008 Brunel UniversityThe paper presents the intermediate results of an on-going research project called Vehicle Design Summit (VDS), run by an international Consortium of Universities coordinated by the MIT of Boston. The project aims at designing and prototyping an eco-efficient vehicle as well as defining an innovative and sustainable business model to introduce and diffuse it into the mobility sector. In this framework the paper explores the potential contribution that PSSs can have in moving beyond incremental technological improvements towards system innovation in the automotive industry. This is outlined presenting and discussing an alternative business model, characterized by: an approach to mobility as the scope of design; an innovative stakeholders network; a shift from selling products to selling results; a change in product ownership; and a consequent change in vehicle design

An Ontology for Product-Service Systems

Industries are transforming their business strategy from a product-centric to a more service-centric nature by bundling products and services into integrated solutions to enhance the relationship between their customers. Since Product- Service Systems design research is currently at a rudimentary stage, the development of a robust ontology for this area would be helpful. The advantages of a standardized ontology are that it could help researchers and practitioners to communicate their views without ambiguity and thus encourage the conception and implementation of useful methods and tools. In this paper, an initial structure of a PSS ontology from the design perspective is proposed and evaluated

Entrepreneurship, Entry and Exit in Creative Industries: an explorative Survey

Series: Creative Industries in Vienna: Development, Dynamics and Potential