A low variance error boosting algorithm

This paper introduces a robust variant of AdaBoost, cw-AdaBoost, that uses weight perturbation to reduce variance error, and is particularly effective when dealing with data sets, such as microarray data, which have large numbers of features and small number of instances. The algorithm is compared with AdaBoost, Arcing and MultiBoost, using twelve gene expression datasets, using 10-fold cross validation. The new algorithm consistently achieves higher classification accuracy over all these datasets. In contrast to other AdaBoost variants, the algorithm is not susceptible to problems when a zero-error base classifier is encountered

Financial Market Reaction to Federal Reserve Communications: Does the Crisis Make a Difference?

This paper studies the effects of Federal Reserve communications on US financial market returns from 1998 to 2009 and asks whether a significant change occurred during the financial crisis of August 2007–December 2009. We find, first, that central bank communication moves financial markets in the intended direction. In particular, shorter maturities are affected in an economically meaningful way. Second, speeches by the Chairman generate relatively more public attention than communication by other governors or presidents. Finally, central bank communication is even more market relevant during the financial crisis subsample.Central Bank Communication, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets, Monetary Policy

Judicial Attitudes and Voting Behavior: The 1961 Term of the United States Supreme Court

For small-scale Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) to operate indoor, in urban canyons or other scenarios where signals from global navigation satellite systems are denied or impaired, alternative estimation and control strategies must be applied. In this paper a system is proposed that estimates the self-motion and wind velocity by fusing information from airspeed sensors, an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a monocular camera. Such estimates can be used in control systems for managing wind disturbances or chemical plume based tracking strategies. Simulation results indicate that while the inertial dead-reckoning process is subject to drift, the system is capable of separating the self-motion and wind velocity from the airspeed information.QC 20110412</p

The Philosophy of Midcentury Corporation Statutes

Professor Katz, in a Symposium issue for another journal, theorizes about the purpose of corporation statutes. At its heart, the theory of business enterprise attempts to delineate the areas of risk, control, and profit, that partners can allocate amongst themselves and to define defaults when these areas are not allocated. Statutes are approached three ways: enabling, which gives ample freedom to corporations to structure themselves; mix, which provides a statutory structure but still relies on corporate responsibility; and a paternal responsibility structure, which limits what a corporation can do; and a fourth approach, a social responsibility theory not yet reflected in statutes, that advocates that corporations should include the public good when making decisions. Professor Katz then considers various statutory topics within the framework of the three approaches. Most of the statutes that Professor Katz examines fall into the first theory, enabling statutes; North Carolina statutes are the only that apply the other two theories. Interestingly, the dominant enabling theory is one that has been under attack for almost one hundred years; and the new revolution of statutes (corporate gifts to charity) will not have the impact others think it will, but rather will serve as an impetus to ensure that there is still a means by which to punish corporations

International money reform

Monetary policy

Coalition politics and accountability

The paper introduces the possibility of coalition government into the theoretical study of political accountability and analyzes the accountability of coalitions as a problem of team production. It is shown that coalition governments can be held accountable in the presence of an electoral alternative. Accountability becomes problematic if it is certain that at least one of the coalition parties stays in power after the elections. Such a coalition (sometimes called a ‘unity government’) cannot be given appropriate collective incentives. To incentivize government performance, voters make one coalition party responsible for the outcome. This, however, makes the other coalition party interested in sabotage. The paper analyzes the resulting conflict and characterizes optimal voter strategy. -- In dieser Arbeit wird die theoretische Analyse der politischen Verantwortlichkeit auf die Situation einer Koalitionsregierung angewandt. Reduziert auf den vertragstheoretischen Kern des Problems stellen Koalitionsregierungen ein ‘Teamprodukt’ für den Wähler als Prinzipal her, wobei der ‘Vertrag’ zwischen Wählern und Koalitionsregierung sehr spezifisch und jedenfalls unvollständig ist. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Disziplinierbarkeit einer Koalition unproblematisch ist, wenn eine wahre Wahlalternative vorhanden ist. Die Disziplinierbarkeit (also die politische Verantwortlichkeit) wird problematisch in einer Situation, in der sich eine Koalition verschiedener Parteien ergibt, zu der es keine echte mehrheitsfähige Alternative gibt, und die als ‘Große Koalition’ bezeichnet werden soll. Die Besonderheit der Großen Koalition ist, dass mindestens eine der beteiligten Parteien mit Sicherheit nach den nächsten Wahlen weiterregiert. Nur Teile der Regierung können abgewählt werden; die große Koalition als Einheit kann in dieser Situation von den Wählern nicht in toto ‘belohnt’ oder ‘bestraft’ werden. Die Arbeit beschreibt die beste Strategie des repräsentativen Wählers in einem stilisierten politischen System, in dem die ‘Große Koalition’ regiert. Es wird gezeigt, dass der Wähler den Regierungspolitikern nur dann Anreize setzen kann, wenn er eine der Regierungsparteien für die Regierungspolitik verantwortlich macht. Dies führt jedoch zu einem Konflikt zwischen den Regierungsparteien, weil es die jeweils andere Regierungspartei zu Sabotage animiert.

Corporate governance in Central and Eastern Europe : lessons from advanced market economies

Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Private Participation in Infrastructure,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Small Scale Enterprise,Economic Theory&Research

Can Corporate Governance Variables Enhance the Prediction Power of Accounting-Based Financial Distress Prediction Models?

We integrated accounting, corporate governance, and macroeconomic variables to build up a binary logistic regression model for the prediction of financially distressed firms. Debt ratio and ROA are found to be the most explanatory accounting variables while the percentage of directors controlled by the largest shareholder (which measures negative entrenchment effect), management participation, and the percentage of shares pledged for loans by large shareholders are shown to have positive contribution to the probability of financial distress. For macroeconomic sensitivities, firms with higher sensitivities to the annualized growth rates of manufacturing production index and money supply (M2) are more vulnerable to financial distress. As to the issue of sampling technique, we find that oversampling of distressed firms is subject to the problem of choice-based sample bias pointed out by Zmijewski (1984). The classification accuracy is overstated consequently. We try to include as many healthy firms as possible in our sample instead of following the traditional 1: 1 or 1: 2 matching principle. The results show that the classification accuracy is mostly significantly improved in our integrated prediction model when the sample is closest to the actual population. For the trade-off between type I and type II errors in the predicted probability classification, we maximize the sum of classification accuracy for both groups of firms (the healthy and the distressed). It is found that an estimated probability of financial distress of 0.2000 represents the optimal cutoff point for predicting financial distress. Under such a cutoff scheme, our integrated model produces an in-sample classification accuracy of 80.7% for distressed firms and 93.2% for healthy firms. For out-sample prediction, 90% of the distressed firms and 85.4% healthy firms in 2001 are correctly identified using an integrated model built upon samples from 1998 to 2000.Corporate governance, Financial distress prediction model, Choice-based sample bias