Learning Active Basis Models by EM-Type Algorithms

EM algorithm is a convenient tool for maximum likelihood model fitting when the data are incomplete or when there are latent variables or hidden states. In this review article we explain that EM algorithm is a natural computational scheme for learning image templates of object categories where the learning is not fully supervised. We represent an image template by an active basis model, which is a linear composition of a selected set of localized, elongated and oriented wavelet elements that are allowed to slightly perturb their locations and orientations to account for the deformations of object shapes. The model can be easily learned when the objects in the training images are of the same pose, and appear at the same location and scale. This is often called supervised learning. In the situation where the objects may appear at different unknown locations, orientations and scales in the training images, we have to incorporate the unknown locations, orientations and scales as latent variables into the image generation process, and learn the template by EM-type algorithms. The E-step imputes the unknown locations, orientations and scales based on the currently learned template. This step can be considered self-supervision, which involves using the current template to recognize the objects in the training images. The M-step then relearns the template based on the imputed locations, orientations and scales, and this is essentially the same as supervised learning. So the EM learning process iterates between recognition and supervised learning. We illustrate this scheme by several experiments.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-STS281 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Actuarial Applications and Estimation of Extended~CreditRisk+^+

We introduce an additive stochastic mortality model which allows joint modelling and forecasting of underlying death causes. Parameter families for mortality trends can be chosen freely. As model settings become high dimensional, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. We then link our proposed model to an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk$^+$. This allows exact risk aggregation via an efficient numerically stable Panjer recursion algorithm and provides numerous applications in credit, life insurance and annuity portfolios to derive P\&L distributions. Furthermore, the model allows exact (without Monte Carlo simulation error) calculation of risk measures and their sensitivities with respect to model parameters for P\&L distributions such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. Numerous examples, including an application to partial internal models under Solvency II, using Austrian and Australian data are shown.Comment: 34 pages, 5 figure

Dispersion relations for η′→ηππ\eta'\to\eta\pi\pi

We present a dispersive analysis of the decay amplitude for $\eta'\to\eta\pi\pi$ that is based on the fundamental principles of analyticity and unitarity. In this framework, final-state interactions are fully taken into account. Our dispersive representation relies only on input for the $\pi\pi$ and $\pi\eta$ scattering phase shifts. Isospin symmetry allows us to describe both the charged and neutral decay channel in terms of the same function. The dispersion relation contains subtraction constants that cannot be fixed by unitarity. We determine these parameters by a fit to Dalitz-plot data from the VES and BES-III experiments. We study the prediction of a low-energy theorem and compare the dispersive fit to variants of chiral perturbation theory.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures; v2: added footnote, version published in EPJ

Multiple testing, uncertainty and realistic pictures

We study statistical detection of grayscale objects in noisy images. The object of interest is of unknown shape and has an unknown intensity, that can be varying over the object and can be negative. No boundary shape constraints are imposed on the object, only a weak bulk condition for the object's interior is required. We propose an algorithm that can be used to detect grayscale objects of unknown shapes in the presence of nonparametric noise of unknown level. Our algorithm is based on a nonparametric multiple testing procedure. We establish the limit of applicability of our method via an explicit, closed-form, non-asymptotic and nonparametric consistency bound. This bound is valid for a wide class of nonparametric noise distributions. We achieve this by proving an uncertainty principle for percolation on finite lattices.Comment: This paper initially appeared in January 2011 as EURANDOM Report 2011-004. Link to the abstract at EURANDOM Repository: http://www.eurandom.tue.nl/reports/2011/004-abstract.pdf Link to the paper at EURANDOM Repository: http://www.eurandom.tue.nl/reports/2011/004-report.pd

ABC for Climate: Dealing with Expensive Simulators

A single molecule or molecule complex detection method is disclosed in certain aspects, comprising nano- or micro-fluidic channels.U

Subgraph Pattern Matching over Uncertain Graphs with Identity Linkage Uncertainty

There is a growing need for methods which can capture uncertainties and answer queries over graph-structured data. Two common types of uncertainty are uncertainty over the attribute values of nodes and uncertainty over the existence of edges. In this paper, we combine those with identity uncertainty. Identity uncertainty represents uncertainty over the mapping from objects mentioned in the data, or references, to the underlying real-world entities. We propose the notion of a probabilistic entity graph (PEG), a probabilistic graph model that defines a distribution over possible graphs at the entity level. The model takes into account node attribute uncertainty, edge existence uncertainty, and identity uncertainty, and thus enables us to systematically reason about all three types of uncertainties in a uniform manner. We introduce a general framework for constructing a PEG given uncertain data at the reference level and develop highly efficient algorithms to answer subgraph pattern matching queries in this setting. Our algorithms are based on two novel ideas: context-aware path indexing and reduction by join-candidates, which drastically reduce the query search space. A comprehensive experimental evaluation shows that our approach outperforms baseline implementations by orders of magnitude