The SMAA-PROMETHEE method

Abstract: PROMETHEE methods are widely used in Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) to deal with real world decision making problems. In this paper, we propose to apply the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) to the family of PROMETHEE methods in order to explore the whole set of parameters compatible with some preference information provided by the Decision Maker (DM). The application of the presented methodology is described in a didactic example

The Ordinal Input for Cardinal Output Approach of Non-compensatory Composite Indicators: The PROMETHEE Scoring Method

Despite serious threats as to their soundness, the adoption of composite indicators is constantly growing alongside their popularity, especially when it comes to their adoption in policy-making exercises. This study presents a robust non-compensatory approach to construct composite indicators mainly based, at least with respect to the basic ideas, on the classic Borda scoring procedure. The non- compensatory indicators we are proposing can be seen as aggregation of ordinal non-compensatory preferences between considered units supplying a numerical cardinal comprehensive evaluation. For this reason we define our methodology, the ordinal input for cardinal output non-compensatory approach for composite indicators. To take into account hesitation, imprecision and ill-determination in defining preference relations with respect to the elementary indices, we adopt the PROMETHEE methods, whose net flow score can be seen as an extension to the fuzzy preferences of the Borda score. Moreover, we systematically deal with robustness of the results with respect to weighting and parameters such as indifference and preference thresholds, permitting to define preference relations of elementary indices. In this regard, we couple PROMETHEE methods with the recently proposed σ−μ approach, which permits to explore the whole domain of feasible preference parameters mentioned above, giving a synthetic representation of the distribution of the values assumed by the composite indicators in terms of mean, μ, and standard deviation, σ. μ and σ are also used to define a comprehensive overall composite indicator. Finally, we enrich the results of this analysis with a set of graphical visualizations based on principal component analysis applied to the PROMETHEE methods with the GAIA technique, providing better understanding of the outcomes of our approach. To illustrate its assets, we provide a case study of inclusive development evaluation, based on the data of the homonymous report produced by the World Economic Forum

The Ordinal Input for Cardinal Output Approach of Non-compensatory Composite Indicators: The PROMETHEE Scoring Method

Despite serious threats as to their soundness, the adoption of composite indicators is constantly growing alongside their popularity, especially when it comes to their adoption in policy-making exercises. This study presents a robust non-compensatory approach to construct composite indicators mainly based, at least with respect to the basic ideas, on the classic Borda scoring procedure. The non- compensatory indicators we are proposing can be seen as aggregation of ordinal non-compensatory preferences between considered units supplying a numerical cardinal comprehensive evaluation. For this reason we define our methodology, the ordinal input for cardinal output non-compensatory approach for composite indicators. To take into account hesitation, imprecision and ill-determination in defining preference relations with respect to the elementary indices, we adopt the PROMETHEE methods, whose net flow score can be seen as an extension to the fuzzy preferences of the Borda score. Moreover, we systematically deal with robustness of the results with respect to weighting and parameters such as indifference and preference thresholds, permitting to define preference relations of elementary indices. In this regard, we couple PROMETHEE methods with the recently proposed σ−μ approach, which permits to explore the whole domain of feasible preference parameters mentioned above, giving a synthetic representation of the distribution of the values assumed by the composite indicators in terms of mean, μ, and standard deviation, σ. μ and σ are also used to define a comprehensive overall composite indicator. Finally, we enrich the results of this analysis with a set of graphical visualizations based on principal component analysis applied to the PROMETHEE methods with the GAIA technique, providing better understanding of the outcomes of our approach. To illustrate its assets, we provide a case study of inclusive development evaluation, based on the data of the homonymous report produced by the World Economic Forum

Application of the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis for market share forecasting for new products

Wprowadzenie nowego produktu jest procesem kosztownym i długotrwałym. Brak informacji o preferencjach potencjalnych klientów stanowi zawsze duży problem w prognozowaniu przyszłych udziałów w rynku. W artykule proponowane jest nowatorskie wykorzystanie metody stochastycznej wielowymiarowej analizy akceptowalności (SMAA), do badania przewagi konkurencyjnej nowych produktów i prognozowania ich udziałów w rynku. Możliwe jest to dzięki reinterpretacji podstawowych wskaźników metody SMAA. Dzięki temu, posiadając jedynie informacje o udziałach w rynku i specyfikacji technicznej poszczególnych produktów, możliwa jest prognoza przyszłych udziałów w rynku nowo wprowadzanych produktów. W celu lepszego zobrazowania idei kryjącej się za proponowaną metodą został przedstawiony prosty przykład liczbowy. W przykładzie tym do modelowania procesu decyzyjnego wykorzystano metodę PROMETHEE.The introduction of a new product is a costly and lengthy process. The lack of information about the preferences of potential customers is always a big problem in forecasting future market shares. This article proposes the innovative use of Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA), to study new products competitivenes and forecast their market share, with very limited resources of information. By reinterpretation of acceptability index to forecast market share of new product there are needed only market shares and technical characterization of products which has been former present on the market. Simple numerical example was included for better presentation of idea hidden behind of our method. PROMETHEE method was used for decision process modeling

A multicriteria selection system based on player performance. Case study: The Spanish ACB Basketball League

In this paper, we describe an approach to rank sport players based on their efficiency. Although is extremely useful to analyze the performance of team games there is no unanimity on the use of a single index to perform such a ranking. We propose a method to summarize the huge amount of information collected at different aspects of a sport team which is almost daily publicly available. The tool will allow agents involved in a player's negotiation to show the strengths (and weaknesses) of the player with respect to other players. The approach is based on applying a multicriteria outranking methodology using as alternatives the potential players and criteria different efficiency indices. A novel automatic parameter tuning approach is detailed that will allow coaches and sports managers to design templates and sports strategies that improve the efficiency of their teams. We report the results performed over the available information on the ACB Basketball League, and we show how it can be easily implemented and interpreted in practice by decision-makers non familiar with the mathematical side of the methodology.Comment: 17 pages, 6 Tables, 4 Figure

Regeneration of Rogoredo railway: a combined approach using multi-criteria and financial analysis

I vuoti urbani, quali ex aree industriali ed ex scali ferroviari, rappresentano oggi un’importante occasione di riconversione delle città, nell’ottica di uno sviluppo in chiave sostenibile, resiliente e circolare. Tuttavia, gli interventi di trasformazione e rigenerazione urbana sono caratterizzati da un elevato grado di complessità e dinamicità, così come da un’elevata interazione tra le diverse componenti urbane, quali gli aspetti economici, ambientali, sociali e tra i diversi attori coinvolti nel processo. In questo contesto, l’approccio metodologico proposto nel presente contributo combina le Analisi-Multicriteri (AMC) con l’analisi Analisi Finanziaria (AF). Questo modello permette di analizzare e supportare il processo decisionale nella sua complessità, considerando sia gli aspetti qualitativi (sociali e ambientali) sia quelli quantitativi (economico- finanziari). Il caso degli scali ferroviari dell’area di Rogoredo a Milano (Italia) rap- presenta un caso emblematico. La stessa città di Milano, già all’interno del Piano di Governo del Territorio (PGT), propone interventi volti alla riconnessione di questo nodo infrastrutturale per renderlo un polo attrattivo e inclusivo. L’obiettivo di questo contributo è quello di applicare le AMC con l’AF per la valutazione di scenari alternativi, volti alla riqualificazione dell’ex scalo ferroviario di Rogoredo. La valutazione diventa, quindi, parte integrante dell’intero processo decisionale, supportandone tutte le fasi, da quella iniziale fino alla definizione dello scenario più idoneo agli obiettivi prefissati e agli interessi degli stakeholder coinvolti. Il valore aggiunto fornito dalla presente applicazione è rappresentato proprio dalla possibilità di considerare sia il punto di vista degli investitori, attraverso l’AF, sia la più ampia prospettiva pubblica, attraverso il supporto delle AMC. In questo modo è stato possibile costruire e valutare scenari di trasformazione in grado di attrarre possibili investitori e al tempo stesso capaci di promuovere modelli di mobilita sostenibile, forme di inclusione sociale, sviluppo eco-sostenibile, miglioramento della qualità ambientale, attraverso la progettazione di nuove aree pubbliche, spazi verdi e servizi per i cittadini. In questo pro- cesso, la valutazione assume un ruolo essenziale in quanto consente di mettere in luce i diversi obiettivi perseguiti dall’intervento di rigenerazione e le loro eventuali conflittualità. Inoltre, la loro identificazione può supportare la definizione di scenari alternativi di sviluppo, rendendo partecipati sia il processo progettuale sia quello decisionale.Abandoned areas such as neglected railways and urban voids represent a suitable opportunity for the regeneration and requalification of cities, according to the paradigms of sustainability and resilience. Urban transformation and urban regeneration processes are characterized by a high level of complexity, a dynamic behavior over time and interactions between the various actors involved in the process. Within this context, the present paper proposes the application of a combined evaluation framework, based on the integration of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with a Financial Analysis (FA) to assess different strategic scenarios for the regeneration of the Rogoredo railways area (Milan, Italy). The purpose of this framework is to take into account the complexity of the decision-making process, considering both the qualitative (social and environmental) and quantitative (economic-financial) aspects. In detail, the railway yards in the Rogoredo area in Milan (Italy) represent an emblematic case. The city of Milan, within the Territory Governance Plan (PGT), has already proposed interventions in this site aimed at reconnecting the infrastructural node and making it an attractive and inclusive pole. The present paper demonstrates the usefulness of evaluation procedures in supporting the entire decision-making process and defining the most suitable scenario considering the initial objective and the stakeholders’ interests. The innovative value provided by this application is represented precisely by the possibility of considering both the developer point of view through FA and the broader public perspective through the support of MCDA. This approach allowed to build and evaluate transformation scenarios capable of both attracting potential investors and promoting sustainable mobility models, social inclusion, eco-sustainable development, improvement of environmental quality through the design of new public areas, green spaces, and services for citizens

Can an ecological scarcity method for Germany support robust decisions? – analysing the effect of uncertain target values on the impact assessment of energy generation technologies

Purpose Potentially contradictory indicators in Life Cycle Assessment cause ambiguity and thus uncertainty regarding the interpretation of results. The weighting-based ecological scarcity method (ESM) aims at reducing interpretation uncertainty by applying policy-based normative target values. However, the definition of these target values is uncertain due to different reasons such as questionable temporal representativeness. By means of an uncertainty analysis, this paper examines if ESMs are an appropriate approach to support robust decisions on multidimensional environmental impacts. Methods To assess the effect of uncertain target values (inputs) on environmental indicators (output), the ESM based Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) is combined with a Monte Carlo Analysis. The comprehensive uncertainty analysis includes the following steps: (1) sample generation, (2) output calculation and (3) results analysis and visualisation. (1) To generate a sample, moderate and strict limits for target values are derived from laws, directives or strategies. Random input parameters are drawn from a uniform distribution within those limits. (2) The sample is used to conduct several LCIAs leading to a distribution of total impact scores. (3) The results’ robustness is evaluated by means of the rank acceptability index to identify stable ranks for energy generation systems taken from ecoinvent v. 3.7.1. Results and discussion Applying moderate and strict target values in the ESM, results in substantial differences in the weighting sets. Even though the application of stricter target values changes the contribution of an environmental indicator to the total impact score the ranking of the energy generation systems varies only slightly. Moreover, the Monte Carlo Analysis reveals that displacement effects in ranks are not arbitrary: systems switch at most between ranks next to each other and most of the analysed systems dominate at least a single rank. Technologies with high shares of land use, global warming and air pollutants and particulate matter show a higher rank variance. Conclusions The weighting schemes, deduced from target values, provide a meaningful ranking of alternatives. At the same time, the results are not excessively sensitive to the uncertainties of the target values, i.e. the inherent uncertainty of the target values does not result in arbitrary outcomes, which is necessary to support robust decisions. The ESM is able to effectively facilitate decision making by making different environmental issues comparable

Environmental impact assessment of petrochemical industry using promethee approach; case study: Arak, Iran

Due to the significant importance of petrochemical industry for Iran’s national economy and the environmental impacts such as wastewater, pollutant emissions, and hazardous wastes, the present study aimed to assess the construction and operation in two phases. Some relevant criteria were distinguished and weighted using Shannon’s entropy, as the objective weighting measures used to measure uncertainty, occurrence probability, severity, and vulnerability, and expert knowledge. The PROMETHEE technique was used due to the presence of large volumes of quantitative and qualitative data and its capability to evaluate the impacts. The steps included forming the evaluation matrix, determining the preference functions and function calculations. The relative desirability of each alternative was measured by calculating the net outranking flows. Finally, the activities were ranked. Based on the results, the main environmental negative impacts are the loss of vegetation cover and land use change, soil erosion and water and air pollution due to activities such as land cleanly shaven, establishment and operation of fuel tanks and drainage changes