The Prediction value

We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players' informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player $i$'s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations of $v(S)$ when $i$ cooperates or not. We characterize the prediction value as a special member of the class of (extended) values which satisfy anonymity, linearity and a consistency property. Every $n$-player binomial semivalue coincides with the PV for a particular family of probability distributions over coalitions. The PV can thus be regarded as a power index in specific cases. Conversely, some semivalues -- including the Banzhaf but not the Shapley value -- can be interpreted in terms of informational importance.Comment: 26 pages, 2 table

Adjuvant tamoxifen in breast cancer : clinical and preclinical studies on the prediction value of estrogen receptor

Breast cancer (BC) exhibits great heterogeneity at histophatological, clinical and molecular levels. However, the different clinical outcomes in patients with seemingly similar breast cancer have led scientists to search for subgroups or for factors and characteristics related to the tumor or the patient that could anticipate clinical course (prognosis) of disease and/or response to given therapy (prediction). Estrogen receptor (ER) is the first molecule identified that has had great influence on the management of breast cancer. This thesis focuses on the role of ER and its significance in breast cancer. In one study, we compared the potential of ER-positive tamoxifen sensitive cells (MCF-7) versus ER- negative cells (MDA-231) to handle DNA repair, transmit signals from DNA damage, initiate apoptosis, control transmitted signals from the cell cycle and synthesize growth factors and receptors. Genes related to these processes were studied by cDNA microarray. We found that the ER-negative cells were characterized by a higher expression of growth factors and cell cycle regulation components, and improved DNA repair. We explored the long-term pattern of disease recurrence among pre-and post-menopausal patients with primary BC according to ER status. The patients were randomly given tamoxifen versus no systemic therapy. The results showed a reduction of locoregional, distant metastases and breast cancer death in ER-positive patients who received tamoxifen. The pattern of metastases was not different in these two groups. The conclusion was that the differences in term of gene expression appeared mainly to be related to endocrine sensitivity and not metastatic potential. Some more events in the first 5 years in ER-negative patients suggested that ER negativity in some cases is correlated with an increased tumour growth rate. ER had been measured by cytosol assays prior to around 1990 when these assays substituted of immunohistochemical (IHC) assay. However, ER predictive ability of response to tamoxifen has been assessed based on ER measurement by cytosol assays. We compared these two assays in a clinical trial and found a high concordance between the assays and concluded that IHC is as accurate as cytosol assays to predict long term response to adjuvant tamoxifen. The introduction of microarray technique a decade ago already has changed our knowledge of BC but it has some pitfalls that question its potential. In two methodical studies we showed the importance of tissue handling, the effect of heterogeneity of BC and standardization on the result from cDNA microarray. This thesis confirms the importance of ER in BC but also indicates a more complex phenotypic beyond that which can be explained purely by ER content or endocrine sensitivity. Microarray technique can provide useful information besides the traditional one but requires standardization of sample collection, storage, processing, normalization, interpretation of data and requires validation by large studies

E-portfolio MSC indicator for a virtual learning environment

This study was conducted to identify indicators for the use of e-portfolio for a virtual learning environment in the Malaysian Skills Certification (MSC) system. The approach is through a modified Delphi technique run in three stages. The first stage is analysis of past research material and documents as guidelines in the development of questionnaire items. In the second and third stages, the developed questionnaire is distributed to experts for approval in determining e-portfolio indicators for implementation of the Malaysian Skills Certification system. The sample selected consists of 11 experts in the field of skills certification in Malaysia. Feedback from the experts was analysed using descriptive statistics (mean, median and interquartile range). The findings identify four elements (Assessment, Personal Space, Exhibition and Learning Management) and 32 indicators through a literature review. In conclusion, there are 22 indicators were identified as necessary for the implementation of the use of the e-portfolio in the Malaysian Skills Certification system

Integrate the GM(1,1) and Verhulst models to predict software stage effort

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2009 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.Software effort prediction clearly plays a crucial role in software project management. In keeping with more dynamic approaches to software development, it is not sufficient to only predict the whole-project effort at an early stage. Rather, the project manager must also dynamically predict the effort of different stages or activities during the software development process. This can assist the project manager to reestimate effort and adjust the project plan, thus avoiding effort or schedule overruns. This paper presents a method for software physical time stage-effort prediction based on grey models GM(1,1) and Verhulst. This method establishes models dynamically according to particular types of stage-effort sequences, and can adapt to particular development methodologies automatically by using a novel grey feedback mechanism. We evaluate the proposed method with a large-scale real-world software engineering dataset, and compare it with the linear regression method and the Kalman filter method, revealing that accuracy has been improved by at least 28% and 50%, respectively. The results indicate that the method can be effective and has considerable potential. We believe that stage predictions could be a useful complement to whole-project effort prediction methods.National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Hi-Tech Research and Development Program of Chin

Modeling of Residual Removal from Palm Oil Mill Effluent by Ceiba Pentandra

This research will explore and incorporate the values and reactions of Ceiba Pentandra as a medium for residual oil removal from the palm oil mill effluent (POME). The behavior and characteristics of Ceiba Pentandra in oil adsorption is tested in experimental laboratory. To understand the characteristics and capabilities of Ceiba Pentandra for residual oil removal, modeling will be developed as a means of evaluating the prediction value with experimental data. The models are tested and elucidated using adsorption kinetics and adsorption equilibrium isotherms. From the results of these models, capacity and oil absorption capacity Ceiba Pentandra will be proved to have a significant value as one of the efficient and eco-friendly agent in oil remova

Prediction-error of Prediction Error (PPE)-based Reversible Data Hiding

This paper presents a novel reversible data hiding (RDH) algorithm for gray-scaled images, in which the prediction-error of prediction error (PPE) of a pixel is used to carry the secret data. In the proposed method, the pixels to be embedded are firstly predicted with their neighboring pixels to obtain the corresponding prediction errors (PEs). Then, by exploiting the PEs of the neighboring pixels, the prediction of the PEs of the pixels can be determined. And, a sorting technique based on the local complexity of a pixel is used to collect the PPEs to generate an ordered PPE sequence so that, smaller PPEs will be processed first for data embedding. By reversibly shifting the PPE histogram (PPEH) with optimized parameters, the pixels corresponding to the altered PPEH bins can be finally modified to carry the secret data. Experimental results have implied that the proposed method can benefit from the prediction procedure of the PEs, sorting technique as well as parameters selection, and therefore outperform some state-of-the-art works in terms of payload-distortion performance when applied to different images.Comment: There has no technical difference to previous versions, but rather some minor word corrections. A 2-page summary of this paper was accepted by ACM IH&MMSec'16 "Ongoing work session". My homepage: hzwu.github.i

Development and optimization of a nonlinear multiparameter model for the human operator

A systematic method is proposed for the development, optimization, and comparison of controller-models for the human operator. This is suitable for any designed model, even multiparameter systems. A random search technique is chosen for the parameter optimization. As valuation criteria for the quality of the model development the criterion function - the comparison between the input and output functions of the human operator and those of the model - and the most important characteristic values and functions of the statistical signal theory are used. A nonlinear multiparameter model for the human operator is being designed which considers the complex input information rate per time in a single display. The nonlinear features of the model are effected by a modified threshold element and a decision algorithm. Different display-configurations as well as various transfer functions of the controlled element are explained by different optimized parameter-combinations