The East-West Arc, Re-thinking Growth in the London Region

The East-West Arc spans 30 local councils comprising the growth corridor from Oxford through Milton Keynes and Northampton to Cambridge. Its population of over three million is the fastest growing region in the UK . It forms the northern fringe of the greater London city region to which it is profitably tied, just north of the Green Belt. History, knowledge, technology, agriculture and nature combine in a rich tapestry that has long contributed to the commonwealth of the United Kingdom. In a globalizing world where distances of all kinds are slashed, the Arc is more than a key part of the greater London region. It is a gateway north to the Midlands and the Northern Powerhouse. The Oxford-Milton Keynes-Cambridge Gateway is one of the most innovative and dynamic areas of the UK. Its potential is recognised by the government as a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the region to become a ‘knowledge-intensive growth cluster, competing globally’. Yet that potential is capped by inadequate infrastructure and expensive housing, as well as ecological constraints. As HS2, along with the train and expressway linking Oxford and Cambridge become realities, this vital region can be seen better as a gateway in all directions, thus helping to rebalance growth across the UK. The day-long symposium on the East-West Arc held at the University of Westminster in June of 2018 addressed these challenges from a range of perspectives. Traversing the Arc from south to north is the proposed high-speed rail line HS2, as well as the planned east-west expressway and east-west rail line linking Oxford to Cambridge through Milton Keynes. These transport links, taken together, are intended to enhance connectivity, mobility and productivity across the region. This will further boost growth while presenting financing and environmental challenges along with its benefits. The National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) report from 2017, Partnering for Prosperity: A new deal for the Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford Arc, set out one vision and approach to infrastructure-led development linked to place making. It also set out new thinking on the housing challenge in the region that is equivalent to a new city the size of Birmingham. Other impacts of growth also need to be addressed, such as last mile connectivity and multi-modal transport, social inequities, land consumption of agriculture and forests, greater flood risk, pollution, and loss of ecological function and integrity of historical region including its villages and towns. These are but a few of the impacts that need to be addressed by an assessment of growth scenarios and their impacts, in advance of the foreseen major infrastructure projects. Government has long recognised the strategic importance of the Arc, and not just to the region itself, comprised of three recently-formed regional growth boards in Milton Keynes, Oxford and Cambridge. Central to the Arc is its relationship to London, the west of England and the synergies with the Midlands and further north. This greater London Region contains the UK’s primary transport hubs and corridors, including the main north-south road and rail routes, together with key international gateways such as Heathrow and Birmingham airports and the seaports of Harwich, Felixstowe and the Thames Gateway in the east. While the long history of this greater region has unfolded piece meal, it is now interconnected into a functioning mega-region that needs a coherent strategy founded by cogent analysis. In this context, it is critical to envision the East-West Arc as gateway that enables in all directions, and not merely as a self-contained sub-region or as a northern fringe of London

Residential density classification for sustainable housing development using a machine learning approach

Using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for classification of the existing residential neighbourhoods and their spatial characteristics (e.g. density) so as to provide plausible scenarios for designing future sustainable housing is a novel application. Here we develop a methodology using a Random Forests algorithm (in combination with GIS spatial data processing) to detect and classify the residential neighbourhoods and their spatial characteristics within the region between Oxford and Cambridge, that is, the 'Oxford-Cambridge Arc'. The classification model is based on four pre-defined urban classes, that is, Centre, Urban, Suburban, and Rural for the entire region. The resolution is a grid of 500 m × 500 m. The features for classification include (1) dwelling geometric attributes (e.g. garden size, building footprint area, building perimeter), (2) street networks (e.g. street length, street density, street connectivity), (3) dwelling density (number of housing units per hectare), (4) building residential types (detached, semi-detached, terraced, and flats), and (5) characteristics of the surrounding neighbourhoods. The classification results, with overall average accuracy of 80% (accuracy per class: Centre: 38%, Urban 91%, Suburban 83%, and Rural 77%), for the Arc region show that the most important variables were three characteristics of the surrounding area: residential footprint area, dwelling density, and number of private gardens. The results of the classification are used to establish a baseline for the current status of the residential neighbourhoods in the Arc region. The results bring data-driven decision-making processes to the level of local authority and policy makers in order to support sustainable housing development at the regional scale

Modelling of integrated local energy systems: low-carbon energy supply strategies for the Oxford-Cambridge arc region

The energy supply system is undergoing enormous change to deliver against cost, security of supply and decarbonisation objectives. Robust decisions on the provision of infrastructure requires integrated models to perform analytics across the entire energy supply chain. A national level combined gas and electricity transmission network model was upgraded to represent local energy systems. Multiple energy vectors including electricity, gas, hydrogen and heat were integrated within the modelling framework. The model was utilised for a study of the Oxford-Cambridge arc region. The study assessed how different energy supply strategies, from electrification of heat to use of ‘green’ gases or local heat networks, could affordably reduce carbon emissions from the Oxford-Cambridge arc region energy system whilst considering constraints from the national system. The modelling process generated a diverse range of options for energy supplies, the choice of supply networks and end use technologies. The analysis illustrated the cost effectiveness and emission reduction potential of electrification of heat despite the requirement for additional network and supply capacity. Additionally, insulation and other energy efficiency solutions were also analysed. Potential barriers to technological change such as upfront costs, lack of awareness and perceived technology shortcomings were discussed in the context of the strategies assessed

In and beyond local government: making up new spaces of governance

In the context of austerity, some of the taken for granted territorial boundaries of local government are being stretched and questioned. Here, these issues are explored with the help of two bodies of evidence: the creation of sets of interlocking arrangements on the edge of the London City region (most recently expressed in proposals for development along what has been identified as the Oxford-Milton Keynes-Cambridge Arc); and the experience of a Mayoral development corporation in the West of London, seeking to take advantage of the possibilities arising from major national and metropolitan investments in transport infrastructure. In both cases, project-based governance coupled with the promise of infrastructural investment, sub-regional visions and plans offer the basis on which new spaces of governance are being put together to fit with shifting economic geographies and changing political priorities. Instead of being institutionally fixed, the spaces of government themselves turn out to be malleable and contested

The Mini-Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination: a new assessment tool for dementia.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: We developed and validated the Mini-Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination (M-ACE) in dementia patients. Comparisons were also made with the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE). METHOD: The M-ACE was developed using Mokken scaling analysis in 117 dementia patients [behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD), n = 25; primary progressive aphasia (PPA), n = 49; Alzheimer's disease (AD), n = 34; corticobasal syndrome (CBS), n = 9] and validated in an independent sample of 164 dementia patients (bvFTD, n = 23; PPA, n = 82; AD, n = 38; CBS, n = 21) and 78 controls, who also completed the MMSE. RESULTS: The M-ACE consists of 5 items with a maximum score of 30. Two cut-offs were identified: (1) ≤25/30 has both high sensitivity and specificity, and (2) ≤21/30 is almost certainly a score to have come from a dementia patient regardless of the clinical setting. The M-ACE is more sensitive than the MMSE and is less likely to have ceiling effects. CONCLUSION: The M-ACE is a brief and sensitive cognitive screening tool for dementia. Two cut-offs (25 or 21) are recommended.This work was supported by funding to Forefront, a collaborative research group dedicated to the study of frontotemporal dementia and motor neurone disease, by the National Health and Medical Research council (NHMRC) of Australia program grant (1037746) and the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence in Cognition and Its Disorders Memory Node (CE110001021). S.H. is supported by the Graham Linford Fellowship from the Motor Neurone Disease Research Institute of Australia. S.M. is supported by Alzheimer Scotland (PhD Studentship). F.L. is supported by an Australian Postgraduate Award (PhD Scholarship). K.D. is supported by NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. S.A. is supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford. C.R.B. is supported by a Clinician Scientist Fellowship from the Medical Research Council (MR/K010395/1). J.B.R. is supported by the Wellcome Trust (088324), Medical Research Council, McDonnell Foundation and the NIHR (Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre and Biomedical Research Unit in Dementia). E.M. is supported by the NHMRC Early Career Fellowship (1016399) and Alzheimer Association USA. J.R.H. is supported by an ARC Federation Fellowship (FF0776229).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Karger via http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/00036604

Optimising energy demands for new housing development in Cambridge – Milton Keynes – Oxford Arc

The Oxford – Milton Keynes – Cambridge (OMC) arc is one of the fastest growing regions of the United Kingdom. The connection of OMC cities via new infrastructure services is seen vital for long-term economic growth of the arc. This growth is expected to increase the arc’s population by 1.9 million and create 23,000 new jobs by 2050. With world-class universities, research locations and high-tech firms, the arc’s future economic growth is threatened by the absence of affordable housing and appropriate connective infrastructures. Since residential and commercial buildings account for half of UK energy use, it is important to plan new housing development in a smart way by including low carbon technologies so as to reduce demands for energy. Therefore, this thesis studies the relationship between the urban development and energy and investigates the potential of low carbon technologies and associated grid impacts for the arc’s new housing development. The study considers PV panels with storage systems such as lithium nickel-cobalt-aluminium and lead-acid batteries as low carbon technologies and analyses their potential to reduce demand for energy from new housing development. Additionally, the growing use of electrical vehicles (EVs) and their impact on the grid has also been included in the investigation. The study calculates and compares the energy demand for the new housing development with and without the low carbon technologies under alternative scenarios which has been characterised as ‘degree of smartness’. The results show that installing PV panels coupled with energy storage systems reduce the dwellings’ demand from the grid as well as it is economically advantageous. Particular considerations about smart EV charging along with load shifting of appliances are highlighted to reduce the number of PV panels and the size of batteries to be installed.Outgoin

Balancing small against large burdens

Common principles for resource allocation in health care can prioritize the alleviation of small health burdens over lifesaving treatment. I argue that there is some evidence that these principles are at odds with a sizable share of public opinion, which holds that saving a life should take priority over any number of cures for minor ailments. I propose two possible explanations for this opinion, one debunking and one vindicatory. I also outline how well-designed surveys and moral inquiry could help decide between them. Finally, I consider how priority-setting principles could be adjusted if the view that saving a life always trumps alleviating small burdens were vindicated

Healthy Nails versus Long Lives: An Analysis of a Dutch Priority Setting Proposal

How should governments balance saving people from very large individual disease burdens (such as an early death) against saving them from middling burdens (such as erectile dysfunction) and minor burdens (such as nail fungus)? This chapter considers this question through an analysis of a priority-setting proposal in the Netherlands, on which avoiding a multitude of middling burdens takes priority over saving one person from early death, but no number of very small burdens can take priority over avoiding one death. It argues that there is some, albeit imperfect, evidence of substantial public support for such a policy. Furthermore, it provides a principled rationale for it in terms of respect for the person who faces the largest burden