Decision making in the front end of large-scale projects: a scoping review.

Decisions made by project managers at the front-end stage can have a significant impact on the success of large-scale complex projects, but there appears to be limited evidence on underlying behavioural decision-making processes. The analytical modes of decision-making are the more widely recognised decision-making approach in project management literature, while the typical errors relating to the use of other decision approaches, such as heuristics and the resulting biases, are emphasised. Behavioural decision making is relatively new and offers a different lens to studying decision making in the front end of projects. This scoping review aims to provide a structured overview of the debate and findings of studies on decision-making at the front end of large-scale complex projects to make suggestions for future research. A scoping review was conducted using Arksey and O'Malley's framework. The literature review was conducted by scoping available peer-reviewed literature published in three major academic online databases: Scopus, EBSCOhost and Web of Science, by analysing 17 papers published between 1983 and 2023 (years inclusive). More research needs to focus on actual decision-making behaviours at the front end of large-scale complex projects, as indicated by the low number of articles that were retrieved. A call for more investigation into how decisions are made at this crucial phase of project management is proposed to improve front-end value creation

THE IMPACT OF PROJECT INTRODUCTION HEURISTICS ON RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PERFORMANCE

Assuming a fixed total R&D budget, the product pipeline management (PPM) problem has two parts: (1) Which and how many projects should be initiated? (2) Which projects should continue to be invested in or terminated?We use a dynamic model calibrated to a pharmaceutical company to study PPM, focusing on three types of heuristics—gradual increase or decrease, random-normal choice, and target-based search—to evaluate the impact of the introduction of innovation projects in the pipeline on the performance in R&D.We find that a gradual decrease of project introduction rates results in convergence, but the size of the adjustments and delays in the pipeline can limit the precision of the results. A random choice is detrimental to performance even when the average value is the optimal. A target-based search results in oscillation. The results of our analysis show that the specific problem of choosing the project introduction rate can be significantly improved by using an adequate rule of thumb or heuristic

A bi-objective genetic algorithm approach to risk mitigation in project scheduling

A problem of risk mitigation in project scheduling is formulated as a bi-objective optimization problem, where the expected makespan and the expected total cost are both to be minimized. The expected total cost is the sum of four cost components: overhead cost, activity execution cost, cost of reducing risks and penalty cost for tardiness. Risks for activities are predefined. For each risk at an activity, various levels are defined, which correspond to the results of different preventive measures. Only those risks with a probable impact on the duration of the related activity are considered here. Impacts of risks are not only accounted for through the expected makespan but are also translated into cost and thus have an impact on the expected total cost. An MIP model and a heuristic solution approach based on genetic algorithms (GAs) is proposed. The experiments conducted indicate that GAs provide a fast and effective solution approach to the problem. For smaller problems, the results obtained by the GA are very good. For larger problems, there is room for improvement

Evaluation based on critical systems heuristics

Introduction: Critical systems heuristics (CSH) draws on the substantive work and philosophy of C. West Churchman, a systems engineer who, along with Russell Ackoff during the 1950s and 1960s, defined operations research in the United States. Churchman later pioneered developments in the 1970s of what is now known as 'soft' and 'critical' systemic thinking and practice in the domain of social or human activity systems. Churchman died in 2004. His legacy lies in signalling the importance of being alert to value-laden boundary judgements when making evaluations. Boundaries are what we socially construct in designing and evaluating any human activity system of interest (e.g., any situation of concern from a kinship group, an organisation, or a larger entity such as a national health system). The primary boundary of any human activity systems is defined by 'purpose'. Churchman's work is characterised by a continual ethical commitment to the overarching purpose of improved human well-being. In order to fulfil such purposeful activity, there is always a need to broaden inquiry from the particular system of focus so as to appreciate what Churchman calls the total relevant system. The effectiveness and efficiency of a system of interest depends on the actual boundary judgements associated with that system of interest. Churchman first identified 9 conditions or categories (including the category 'purpose�) associated with any purposeful system of interest in his book The Design of Inquiring Systems [1, 2]. He later extended these to 12 categories in a book provocatively entitled The Systems Approach and Its Enemies, significantly taking into account 3 extra factors (�enemies�) that lie outside the actual system of interest but which can be affected by, and therein have an effect on, the performance of the system [1, 2]. In the early 1980s a doctorate student of Churchman from Switzerland, Werner Ulrich, translated Churchman's 12 categories into an operational set of 12 questions which he called critical systems heuristics [3]. Ulrich returned to Switzerland and worked with CSH as a public health and social welfare policy analyst and program evaluator [4]. Section 2 introduces the basic toolbox of CSH, along with suggestions on when to use it and the benefits of its use. Section 3 will guide you through a suggested operational use of CSH questions in a process of evaluation. Section 4 provides a summary of an extensive case study in which CSH was used for evaluating the role of public participation in natural resource-use planning. Section 5 provides some advice for the practitioner in developing skills on using CSH for evaluation

Project management under uncertainty

Morris' (1986) analysis of the factors affecting project success and failure is considered in relation to the psychology of judgement under uncertainty. A model is proposed whereby project managers may identify the specific circumstances in which human decision-making is prone to systematic error, and hence may apply a number of de-biasing techniques

A hierarchical approach to multi-project planning under uncertainty

We survey several viewpoints on the management of the planning complexity of multi-project organisations under uncertainty. A positioning framework is proposed to distinguish between different types of project-driven organisations, which is meant to aid project management in the choice between the various existing planning approaches. We discuss the current state of the art of hierarchical planning approaches both for traditional manufacturing and for project environments. We introduce a generic hierarchical project planning and control framework that serves to position planning methods for multi-project planning under uncertainty. We discuss multiple techniques for dealing with the uncertainty inherent to the different hierarchical stages in a multi-project organisation. In the last part of this paper we discuss two cases from practice and we relate these practical cases to the positioning framework that is put forward in the paper

Welcome to OR&S! Where students, academics and professionals come together

In this manuscript, an overview is given of the activities done at the Operations Research and Scheduling (OR&S) research group of the faculty of Economics and Business Administration of Ghent University. Unlike the book published by [1] that gives a summary of all academic and professional activities done in the field of Project Management in collaboration with the OR&S group, the focus of the current manuscript lies on academic publications and the integration of these published results in teaching activities. An overview is given of the publications from the very beginning till today, and some of the topics that have led to publications are discussed in somewhat more detail. Moreover, it is shown how the research results have been used in the classroom to actively involve students in our research activities

Issues in front-end decision-making on projects

The importance of the front-end decision-making phase in projects is being increasingly recognized - the need to do the right project is on a par with doing the project right. This area is underrepresented in the literature, but there are a number of key themes that run throughout, identifying key issues or difficulties during this stage. This article looks at some of these themes and includes: the need for alignment between organizational strategy and the project concept; dealing with complexity, in particular the systemicity and interrelatedness within project decisions; consideration of the ambiguity implicit in all major projects; taking into account psychological and political biases within estimation of benefits and costs; consideration of the social geography and politics within decision-making groups; and preparation for the turbulence within the project environment, including the maintenance of strategic alignment

The Project Scheduling Problem with Non-Deterministic Activities Duration: A Literature Review

Purpose: The goal of this article is to provide an extensive literature review of the models and solution procedures proposed by many researchers interested on the Project Scheduling Problem with nondeterministic activities duration. Design/methodology/approach: This paper presents an exhaustive literature review, identifying the existing models where the activities duration were taken as uncertain or random parameters. In order to get published articles since 1996, was employed the Scopus database. The articles were selected on the basis of reviews of abstracts, methodologies, and conclusions. The results were classified according to following characteristics: year of publication, mathematical representation of the activities duration, solution techniques applied, and type of problem solved. Findings: Genetic Algorithms (GA) was pointed out as the main solution technique employed by researchers, and the Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) as the most studied type of problem. On the other hand, the application of new solution techniques, and the possibility of incorporating traditional methods into new PSP variants was presented as research trends. Originality/value: This literature review contents not only a descriptive analysis of the published articles but also a statistical information section in order to examine the state of the research activity carried out in relation to the Project Scheduling Problem with non-deterministic activities duration.Peer Reviewe

Using megaproject performance outcomes to enhance decision-making behaviours in civil engineering graduates

A comprehensive review of megaproject performance propositioned the issues leading to project failure as behavioral. Project failure linked cost overruns and schedule delays to acts of delusion and deception, citing the ability to learn lessons, and the misalignment of incentives as influencing factors. A mixed-methods study was designed to gain insight into the decision-making behaviors of undergraduate civil engineers, and the role that education could play in enhancing decision-making. A co-curricular intervention led to qualitative exploration of decision-making in civil engineering undergraduates. Motivation featured heavily, particularly a conflict between interest and enjoyment, and the reward structures of traditional education and industry. Results led to a quantitative measure of intrinsic motivation and critical thinking ability. Findings from the educational environment have implications for industry and led to recommendations regarding the importance of autonomy and relatedness, to a megaproject environment