Probability density estimation with tunable kernels using orthogonal forward regression

A generalized or tunable-kernel model is proposed for probability density function estimation based on an orthogonal forward regression procedure. Each stage of the density estimation process determines a tunable kernel, namely, its center vector and diagonal covariance matrix, by minimizing a leave-one-out test criterion. The kernel mixing weights of the constructed sparse density estimate are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm to ensure the nonnegative and unity constraints, and this weight-updating process additionally has the desired ability to further reduce the model size. The proposed tunable-kernel model has advantages, in terms of model generalization capability and model sparsity, over the standard fixed-kernel model that restricts kernel centers to the training data points and employs a single common kernel variance for every kernel. On the other hand, it does not optimize all the model parameters together and thus avoids the problems of high-dimensional ill-conditioned nonlinear optimization associated with the conventional finite mixture model. Several examples are included to demonstrate the ability of the proposed novel tunable-kernel model to effectively construct a very compact density estimate accurately

Sketching for Large-Scale Learning of Mixture Models

Learning parameters from voluminous data can be prohibitive in terms of memory and computational requirements. We propose a "compressive learning" framework where we estimate model parameters from a sketch of the training data. This sketch is a collection of generalized moments of the underlying probability distribution of the data. It can be computed in a single pass on the training set, and is easily computable on streams or distributed datasets. The proposed framework shares similarities with compressive sensing, which aims at drastically reducing the dimension of high-dimensional signals while preserving the ability to reconstruct them. To perform the estimation task, we derive an iterative algorithm analogous to sparse reconstruction algorithms in the context of linear inverse problems. We exemplify our framework with the compressive estimation of a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), providing heuristics on the choice of the sketching procedure and theoretical guarantees of reconstruction. We experimentally show on synthetic data that the proposed algorithm yields results comparable to the classical Expectation-Maximization (EM) technique while requiring significantly less memory and fewer computations when the number of database elements is large. We further demonstrate the potential of the approach on real large-scale data (over 10 8 training samples) for the task of model-based speaker verification. Finally, we draw some connections between the proposed framework and approximate Hilbert space embedding of probability distributions using random features. We show that the proposed sketching operator can be seen as an innovative method to design translation-invariant kernels adapted to the analysis of GMMs. We also use this theoretical framework to derive information preservation guarantees, in the spirit of infinite-dimensional compressive sensing

On the Estimation of Euler Equations in the Presence of a Potential Regime Shift

The concept of a peso problem is formalized in terms of a linear Euler equation and a nonlinear marginal model describing the dynamics of the exogenous driving process. It is shown that, using a threshold autoregressive model as a marginal model, it is possible to produce time-varying peso premia. A Monte Carlo method and a method based on the numerical solution of integral equations are considered as tools for computing conditional future expectations in the marginal model. A Monte Carlo study illustrates the poor performance of the generalized method of moment (GMM) estimator in small and even relatively large samples. The poor performance is particularly acute in the presence of a peso problem but is also serious in the simple linear case.peso problem; Euler equations; GMM; threshold autoregressive models